Philadelphia 76ers: Realistic Predictions For Joel Embiid
By Ray Petree
After appearing to be close to full health, we explore realistic expectations for Philadelphia 76ers rookie center Joel Embiid
When Sam Hinkie’s tenure as the Philadelphia 76ers general manager began, his vision wasn’t as discernible to the public as it was to him. Albeit, trying to revolutionize the game of basketball with a roster entirely comprised of big men doesn’t sound very smart on paper, does it?
Regardless, now that the dust has settled and the legendary Colangelo’s operate the Sixers, maybe Hinkie was the GM Philadelphia deserved, but not the GM it needed, because we’re finally starting to see the fruits of Hinkie’s labor, and the #Process seems like it’s paid off.
Just to make this perfectly clear, I don’t condone tanking. Or repeatedly falling in the lottery year after year, but the results are undeniable.
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The Philadelphia 76ers have landed multiple top flight-name brand college prospects, and while I may also not agree with every decision the Sixers have made on draft day, talent is talent.
Jahlil Okafor is a stout low-postman, with a knack for playing with his back to the basket. His talent on the court may have been overshadowed last year by his troubles off the court, or maybe other astonishing young big-men like Karl-Anthony Towns and Porzingod, but Okafor is certainly an offensive oddity in today’s league.
On the other hand, there’s Ben Simmons, a highly athletic gym rat, who’s been blessed by the Basketball God’s with the “passing gift”.
Sound familiar? Maybe the LeBron James comparisons are a little premature, but the resemblance is striking. Lastly there’s Joel Embiid, the injury-laden, Cameroonian phenom who’s been dazzling fans in the preseason.
And while it’s “just the preseason”(said every basketball fan ever), we can learn a lot from Embiid’s debut.
Kansas head coach Bill Self likened Embiid to “a young Hakeem Olajuwon”, and while that may be unfair to the 22-year-old rookie, the comparison is certainly understandable. At 7 feet, 250+ pounds with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, Embiid was practically crafted by the Basketball Gods to dominate.
Like Okafor, his bread and butter is the low post, generally attacking with an array of back-to-the-basket moves. This is where you can begin to draw the similarities between Embiid and Olajuwon. Embiid’s repertoire ranges from up-and-unders, drop steps, turnaround jumpers, and of course the “Dream Shake”.
While he may lack polish or consistency, chiseling away at the thick coat of rust he’s accumulated since he last played may help. The foundation is there though. Creativity, the ability to create separation, strength to establish position, and deceivingly long arms to finish around the rim.
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On the flip side, like the revolutionary wave of centers invading the league, Embiid has a savvy face-up game to boot. Most notably a viable mid range dagger, and a willingness to take(and make) shots from beyond the arch.
Although what ultimately separates Embiid from Okafor is his game’s dimension. Okafor is a lackadaisical defender to say the least, and he has little-to-no interest in rebounding. In contrast, Embiid is already blocking his fair share of shots, and asserting his presence on the offensive boards.
Despite the Sixers strange obsession with starting five power forwards/center, don’t be surprised if Embiid is averaging a double-double by seasons end.
Obviously I think we have to address the elephant in the room. Injury, because Embiid is no stranger to it. A broken navicular bone has kept him from playing since his college days in 2014, and the historian in me says that foot-related injuries are a never ending battle.
And, obviously the Sixers are weary of his health, hence the minute-restrictions placed on his preseason debut. But, given the time Embiid’s taken to recover, and the Sixers’ decision to ease him back into the game, I don’t expect his injuries to resurface.
Basketball fans generally have a propensity for overreacting to the unknown. Like thinking Joel Embiid can be the next Hakeem Olajuwon. Just because he’s an explosive post player, doesn’t mean he’ll be a quarter of the player Olajuwon was. Just because he can hit three’s and post guys up, doesn’t mean he’ll have a better rookie season than Karl-Anthony Towns.
Embiid’s two biggest limitations will be his minutes, and tragically his own environment
So what can we realistically expect then?
I think Embiid’s two biggest limitations will be his minutes, and tragically his own environment. I’ve jokingly said the Sixers will be trying to start five big men, but just think about the Sixers roster. Embiid, Simmons, Okafor, Noel and Saric are all bigs you can expect to play a significant role in this team.
Brett Brown’s expressed an interest in catering more of the offense to Embiid’s talents, but even if the Sixers opt to play Simmons at point guard, they’re still left with three big men, and no floor spacing. The Sixers still don’t have a reliable three-point shooter, and there’s only so much ground in the low post to be covered. So how can Embiid stand out alongside that many big men?
They could always trade assets like Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor to build their core of wing players, and add designated shooters to the mix. But, can Colangelo trust Embiid enough to be Philadelphia’s resident big man? Because, it’s easy to crumble under the type of immense pressure that’s been placed on Embiid. Especially if your legs are prone to failure.
Assuming Embiid doesn’t reinjure his foot, or suffer some other type of injury, or get traded, I expect him to average somewhere in the vicinity of 14 points (47%), 10 boards, a dime, and a block-and-change a game.
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Nothing mindblowing, or indicative of a Rookie of the Year campaign, but playing organized basketball for the first time in two-and-a-half years isn’t easy either. The blueprint is their for a great big man though, now all Embiid needs is time. Luckily for Philadelphia, patience is what the #Process is all about.