The Raptors Goes Deer Hunting
27.9. 23.0. 12.3. 10.4. 9.7.
23.2. 20.1 11.1. 9.2. 8.7.
Those are the top-5 leading scoring averages on the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks (respectively).
While the scoring averages may not differ much, each team’s conference standing does.
Toronto is currently 4th in the Eastern Conference standings, and Milwaukee is (by my calculations) 2 games behind for the 8th seed.
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The Raptors in recent years have long been the #2 seed and always chasing Cleveland for the one seed, but always fall short in the playoffs; although, to be fair, they did battle Cleveland hard for 6 games in the Conference Finals last year.
The Raptors also always seem to be one piece away, and the common consensus in the NBA community is a star at the 4 position is that missing piece. Naturally right now they are being linked to names like Serge Ibaka, Paul Millsap, and, if my memory serves me right, even Pau Gasol at some point.
While I think all of those players would be fine fits in Toronto and could be the piece that knocks Cleveland out of the playoffs, I don’t think Toronto’s true issue is at the 4 spot – I think it’s been on their roster for a long time:
Jonas Valanciunas is a fine player. He’s nearly averaging a double-double on the season (12.3 PPG and 9.9 RPG), and is the Raptor’s 3rd-leading scorer.
Valencianas has had big games for the Raptors in both the regular season and postseason. In the 2015-2016 playoffs he racked up 165 points.
Arguably his best individual performance of his career came this year in the first game of the regular season, when he posted 32 points, 11 boards (6 offensive!), while shooting 85.7% from the charity stripe. His next highest scoring total on the season is 23 points back in game 11.
The narrative surrounding most of Valanciunas’ career is that he just needs more time to develop, but in his 5th NBA season with career averages of 11.5 PPG and 8.5 TRPG, what upside is left?
Sure, he’s good for a double-double every night which, by the way, is harder to do than NBA players make it look, but outside of that, he’s not exceptional in any other area; just good in all of them.
I think Valanciunas fits Casey’s system just fine, but if Toronto is serious about contending while Lowry and DeRozan are together (I don’t think Lowry is necessarily a lock to return to Toronto), then they need to gamble outside of taking fliers on guys like Jared Sullinger.
Speaking of Jared Sullinger……
Milwaukee and Toronto came into the season with high hopes, looking to continue to build off their success these past few seasons. Sadly, that hasn’t been the case for either team.
Toronto has dropped 9 of their last 13, including a 5 game losing streak that included a blowout loss to the struggling Hornets, and a loss to a middling Phoenix team.
Milwaukee recently lost one of their young stars in Jabari Parker to an ACL tear in the same knee he tore it two seasons ago. They currently sit 11th in the Eastern Conference standings with a 22-29 record.
With both teams in some type of disarray, they could look to make improvements/think long-term.
This is the list of the players the Bucks, if they don’t make any moves at the deadline, could potentially lose in the offseason: Greg Monroe (player option), Michael Beasley (UFA), the recently acquired Spencer Hawes (player option) and Roy Hibbert (UFA), Tony Snell (RFA), and Jason Terry (UFA).
While Monroe was a splash free agent signing for the small-market Bucks, he’s currently averaging a career low in minutes at 21.3, albeit coming off the bench. He holds career averages of 14.1 PPG and 8.9 TRPG, which is a bit more scoring punch that the Raptors could use.
By moving Snell and Monroe, the Bucks can take longer and harder looks at players like Michael Beasley (43.8 3P% on the season), and the newly acquired Jared Sullinger (rebounding machine in Boston, and has shown flashes of being able to be a stretch 4). The worst case scenario is that none of Hawes, Sullinger, or Hibbert works out, and they clear some cap space for free agency.
They also have Teletovic and Henson under contract for the next few seasons, who can certainly hold the fort down until Parker returns.
The Raptors could potentially lose Kyle Lowry, Patrick Patterson, and the aforementioned Jared Sullinger; and have some enticing young (but inexperienced) prospects in Pascal Siakam, Lucas Nogueira, and Jakob Poeltl. So, adding a veteran like Greg Monroe could go a long way in their developments.
Snell is also no slouch either, he’s always been a solid defender and had a few scoring explosions in the playoffs, but is currently shooting 38.7% from 3 and holds a 58.1 eFG% on the season. He would boost an inconsistent scoring Toronto bench.