Rankings 12-15
This fourth tier is where I start to play with fire a little bit. Tier four contains players with high upside. However, they have very low floors. These could be labeled as your boom or bust picks.
These prospects in tier four are ranked strictly by safety. Daniel Gafford and Lonnie Walker are the two highest in this tier because they both have NBA roles as well. Even though it might take time for Walker and Gafford to develop into their roles, Gafford projects as a rotation rim protector, and Walker projects as a rotation 3 and D player.
Both have room to grow as well. Daniel Gafford in his best case scenario probably evolves into a double double starter and rim protector. Finding most of his value from finishing at the rim out of pick and rolls.
Lonnie Walker has the potential to be a really good offensive player. With his athleticism, length, and scoring Walker could find value as a high level bucket getter that probably maxes out around 18-20 points a game. However, that isn’t even a possibility if Lonnie Walker doesn’t consistent shoot better and improve his ball handling. That is Walker’s best case scenario.
Mitchell Robinson and Troy Brown are both prospects that really scare me. Robinson of course has not played and his ranking could change after the combine. He’s been reported as an athletic rim protecting 7 footer, but he hasn’t played a real basketball game in college.
Troy Brown has a ton of talent and is an all around wing, but I struggle to find where he fits in the NBA. He probably needs the ball in his hands as a point forward off the bench with great vision. However, he’s not an advanced enough ball handler to take on a heavy usage role like that immediately. Also, if Troy Brown doesn’t knock down a three point shot consistently he will struggle to score in the NBA.