Collin Sexton, Guard, Cleveland Cavaliers
2017-18 stats: 19.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.8 turnovers
This pick is largely dependent on LeBron James leaving the Cavaliers. If he stays, Sexton’s role will obviously be much smaller. For now, let’s just assume that The King won’t be hanging around in The Land.
Sexton will pass the eye test for casual fans, as his athleticism and relentless effort should create plenty of highlight plays. Similar to Dennis Smith Jr. in Dallas this past season, Sexton will send Twitter into meltdown on a regular basis with a big dunk or a flashy play in transition.
Should LeBron leave, though, Sexton will have much more responsibility than just building hype. The playoffs showed that Cleveland have no reliable playmakers in any position not filled by LeBron, so Sexton will likely be charged with running the show for the Cavs.
It will almost certainly get messy, as Sexton showed questionable judgement and shot selection at times with Alabama. His assist-to-turnover of less than 1.3 will need to improve in the long run, as will his shooting from the field (44.7 per cent) and from 3 (33.6 per cent).
While his off-ball defense still needs some work, his effort, athleticism and length (6’7.25″ wingspan) will allow him to make an impact on that end. Sexton displayed a never-say-die attitude through his whole freshman season, and that alone will put him ahead of most rookies defensively.
Playing for the Cavaliers will see Sexton in the spotlight from the get-go. He’ll put up big raw numbers and make some jaw-dropping plays, and the efficiency will come later.
Projected 2018/19 stats: 15.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 3.2 turnovers
Trae Young, Guard, Atlanta Hawks
2017/18 stats: 27.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 5.2 turnovers, 36.0 3PT%
First of all, let’s rip this bandaid off quickly for Hawks fans: Trae Young is not Steph Curry. He isn’t now, and he never will be.
He could, however, become a Steph Curry-lite. If he grows into his full potential, that’s still a very good player.
In terms of this coming season, Young should surprise fans with much more efficient scoring than in his lone college season. While his shooting percentages dipped drastically as the season wore on and his turnovers per game increased, that was largely a product of the rest of Oklahoma’s roster.
With no other top-level talent on his side, Young led the nation in usage percentage (37.1) and was forced to attempt outrageous plays on a regular basis.
While the Hawks roster isn’t fantastic, the more even nature of the NBA should help Young right off the bat. Lower expectations are also a plus, as they won’t be competing for the playoffs any time soon.
Young’s passing and shooting have somehow become underrated, but that should change quickly in the pros. More catch-and-shoot opportunities and open looks should see his shooting numbers rise, while better teammates and a more set offensive structure will showcase his fantastic playmaking ability.
He will be a defensive sieve early on, and may stay that way for his whole career. Atlanta will eventually need to surround him with good defenders, but until then his size (6’2″ in shoes) and lack of length (6’3″ wingspan) will make him a liability on that end
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While Dennis Schroeder is still on the roster, the trade that brought Young to the Hawks is a clear sign that this will be his team. If he can adjust to a lower usage rate, he should be an efficient scorer and playmaker right off the bat.
Projected 2018/19 stats: 17.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 4.5 turnovers, 38% 3PT