1. Denver Nuggets
Last season: 54-28, 2nd in Western Conference
Notable additions: Jerami Grant
Notable subtractions: Trey Lyles
They might go under the radar after an especially quiet offseason, but the continued development of Denver’s young core should be enough to see them land atop the Western Conference. They finished second behind Golden State last season, and with the Warriors super-team disassembled the Nuggets should start the new season as the favorites to claim homecourt advantage.
They ranked in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive rating last year, and there’s no reason to think they can’t improve on both ends this season. Their offense remains their strength, though, with a focus on fluid ball movement highlighted by their 65.3 assist percentage (2nd in NBA).
That system starts with Nikola Jokic, a bona fide MVP candidate at just 24 years of age and already one of the best passing big men of all time. Averaging a double-double as well as 7.3 assists per game, he went to another level last year as the main initiator of Denver’s offense.
That opened up the game for the starting backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris, neither of whom are pure point guards. Freed of a lot of his previous playmaking duties, Murray, in particular, took a big step forward as he put up a career-high 18.2 points per game. With Murray (22), Jokic (24) and Harris (25) all yet to enter their basketball primes, the synergy they have developed offensively may only just be starting to reach its true potential.
While those players were all outstanding, the real strength of the Nuggets was their depth. Last season, they had seven lineups that played 100 minutes or more together. Their starting lineup was one of them, and it posted a net rating of -5.9 to finish dead last among them. The ability to plug their reserves into any lineup and experience little to no drop-off was a huge advantage, particularly in the grind of the regular season.
Monte Morris and Malik Beasley surprisingly emerged as two of the steadiest guards off the bench in the NBA, as they both shot over 40 percent from 3 and averaged a combined 1.3 turnovers per game. Will Barton struggled offensively after returning from a hip injury, but he remains a versatile player on both ends of the floor. They lost Trey Lyles in free agency but will replace him in the rotation with Jerami Grant, who was outstanding for Oklahoma City as a floor spacer (39.2 3PT%) and defender (1.3 BPG).
The Nuggets finished second in the West because they were built to withstand an 82 game slog in the regular season. That success didn’t translate to the playoff last year, and it may not again this year, but it’s hard to see them falling with the sheer depth of talent they have.