NBA Playoffs: Storylines, predictions for each West first-round series

(2) LA vs. (7) Dallas

Dallas had by-far the best point differential out of any non-L.A. Western Conference team, but I view the Clippers as the worst possible match-up for them. Their defense is already terrible (by playoff standards) to begin with, and the team’s dearth of options to guard wing threats will only be amplified here.

I knew Dallas was toast in this series the moment they had to unearth Michael Kidd-Gilchrist against the Blazers because nobody could stop Carmelo Anthony – it makes me shudder at the thought of what Kawhi/PG are going to do. The Mavericks’ two best answers are Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber. If I were them, I’d think about starting Kleber in place of the Curry/Burke spot, as he had promising sequences in their most recent contest against Leonard.

This would also allow Luka Doncic to hide on Patrick Beverley, and for the Curry/Burke minutes to align with the LA reserves. Finney-Smith is an adequate defender, but he doesn’t have enough size to give the Clippers’ stars any type of difficulty.

While Dallas was a historically dominant offense this year, I think the Clippers’ personnel is well-suited to slow them down (even from an all-time rate to a modestly “good” rate). They’ll use their length to shrink the floor and make Doncic work for everything. Ivica Zubac has been surprisingly staunch as a rim deterrent, but LA has the front-court depth to replace him if Kristaps Porzingis is banging 30-footers.

They even have the versatility to go to all-switching lineups if they want to throw a different look out there. Dallas will still have moments of offensive brilliance – Doncic is transcendent – but the Clippers should be able to neutralize them enough while making hay on the other end.

For the Mavericks, you have to hope that Luka is so dominant (like he was in the Bucks game, for example), that he single-handedly keeps them in games. The Clippers don’t really have any type of continuity, but I don’t really expect that to matter as long as Leonard and George are healthy and playing. Perhaps Rick Carlisle can come up with creative solutions to gum up LA’s somewhat static offense. They are also heavily reliant on free-throws, and not fouling is the one thing Dallas can hang its hat on defensively.

Overall, this series shouldn’t ever be in doubt, which is a shame since I think the Mavericks are good enough to win a series. If only the clutch gods hadn’t frowned upon them this year.

Pick: Clippers in 5