1. Atlanta Hawks – 35.5 wins: UNDER
The Atlanta Hawks were busy in the offseason making roster tweaks, and there are serious expectations that’ll pay off with a playoff appearance. But I have a hard time believing that they are 16 wins better than last season’s squad.
Trae Young is an offensive maestro and John Collins really played well at the end of the year, but the Hawks as a team have been all show and no substance. They were bottom 5 in offensive and defensive efficiency last year while playing against a weaker schedule in the East, finishing a miserable 20-47.
The offseason signings certainly add more to the team, but this was a signal to me that the Hawks bailed out on their full rebuilding process. Coach Lloyd Pierce now doesn’t have the luxury to give development minutes to young guys like DeAndre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Kevin Heurter, and Onyeka Okongwu. There are only 240 minutes of floor time every night, and those high lottery draft picks won’t have a clear path of steady playing time.
What the Hawks were really bad at last year was defense, they gave up almost 119 points a game and had the worst defensive rating in the league by a mile. The addition of Kris Dunn will help, but who else? Danilo Gallinari is one of my favorite players in the league, but he’s never been a great defender. Bogdan Bogdanovic is a deadeye shooter, but I don’t think he’s much else than that. Clint Capela has a reputation for defense but missed a significant part of last year and his play was declining before then.
And then there’s Rajon Rondo. Signing him as your backup point guard looks good for the casual fan, but Rondo been a negative impact player in the league for quite some time. Recency bias suggests the revitalized his career in Los Angeles, but let’s get real – LeBron James makes everyone look good. Rondo’s offensive inefficiencies and his questionable leadership methods may not jive well with the Hawks on and off the court.
The final reason why this number is ridiculous: Eastern Conference competition. Even with all those improvements, the Hawks are still not better than Milwaukee, Toronto, Boston, Miami, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, or Indiana. This would put them in 8th place in the East – last year’s 8th place team (Orlando) finished 33-40.
Trae Young can nail 35-footers and do all that nutmegs in the world, but until the team can elevate their defense to even average levels, they’re not going to be better than a borderline-playoff team – which will likely have a losing record.