The Atlanta Hawks underachieved this season (going 41-41 overall), but then gave their fans some hope in how they played down the stretch in their 1st round playoff series against the Celtics. The Hawks are still chasing the level they were at in 2021, and now face another offseason with some major questions. With Quin Snyder now at the helm, a very important offseason is on the horizon.
Speaking of the playoffs, one thing that also must be waded through is how much weight is put on the six-game Celtics playoff series (and the play-in victory over the Heat), and how much that weighs against an 82-game regular season. And as mentioned later, how a player played before and after the coaching change must also be taken into consideration.
Some things are evident as ways the Hawks must improve (for instance, POA (point-of-attack) defense and 3-point shooting). However, the following questions are ones that the Hawks must address, and will likely determine how the franchise looks into fixing those issues and trying to improve from a team that had to work their way out of the play-in for the second straight season.
1. Can the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray Duo Work Long-term?
When the Atlanta Hawks traded three 1st round picks (plus a pick-swap) for Dejounte Murray last offseason, it’s safe to say that they envisioned their season going better than it did. The Hawks now must determine whether the explosive backcourt duo can work together as a long-term championship-level duo (and if the two want that as well). Much of this season was marred with inconsistency and learning pains between the two.
Overall for the season, the numbers weren’t bad for the duo- Trae Young averaged 26.2 points, 10.2 assists, and 3.0 rebounds per game, but his shooting splits were down from normal at 42.9%/33.5%/88.6%. Dejounte Murray meanwhile averaged 20.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game on 46.4%/34.4%/83.2% splits. However, the aforementioned inconsistencies, and a hard-to-explain disappointing season defensively from Dejounte Murray, hindered the duo’s debut season together.
Then after the regular season, the duo began to flash their potential in the playoffs. For example, Trae Young went for 36-6-9 while Dejounte Murray went for 25-6-5 (with both shooting over 50% from the field) in the Hawks’ Game 3 win over the Celtics. That is what the Hawks envisioned when they made the Murray trade.
Another part of this that can’t be ignored, is that a major question for the Hawks is whether both of these players themselves want to return. I personally believe that some of the reports surrounding Young and Murray’s unhappiness/potentially wanting out were overblown, but it is definitely something that the Hawks must be cognizant of.
I personally think that the duo needs another season together. I definitely don’t think it’s time for the Hawks to move on from Trae Young (look at what he did in Games 3-6 in the playoffs against the vaunted Celtics defense). I also think that too much of an investment was made into Murray to just dump him for a loss.
The potential for the duo remains high in my opinion, and I don’t think it is worth splitting them up so early. It would take a significant piece returning (more on that later) for me to be willing to accept the Young-Murray duo being split up after just one season.
2. What to do About the Frontcourt?
The Atlanta Hawks have roughly 66 million committed to their starting frontcourt (De’Andre Hunter-John Collins-Clint Capela) for next season. Collins is heading into year three of his 5-year, $125 million deal (5th year is a player option). Hunter is heading into the first year of his 4 year, $95 million rookie extension. Capela has two years left on his deal. You get the point, the Hawks are currently tied to all three players long-term.
All three players also have questions moving forward. Hunter has yet to take the step forward offensively that the team had hoped. Collins took a step back this season while struggling mightily from deep (3-point percentage dropped from 36.4% in 2022 to just 29.2% this year). And Capela has been slowed at times over the last two years due to lower body issues.
As we will also see later, all three players also have young players behind them pushing for more minutes (this is especially the case with Capela). There is also the issue that the three players might not fit together well enough anymore if the 3-point shots aren’t falling (especially when it comes to spacing).
I like all three players individually, but I believe that as the Hawks look to re-make their roster, it will likely have to come at the expense of one (or more) of the starting frontcourt players being moved. Whether it be for a star player or just a player with a different skill set. Sadly, I think it might have come to the point that the Hawks need to trade from the starting frontcourt, the question might now be how many get moved, which ones get moved, and who they are moved for.
Some hypothetical trades for instance could look like adding Lu Dort, Dorian Finney-Smith, or Kyle Kuzma. Dort has his limitations offensively but is an all-defensive team-caliber guy who would fill a lot of needs for the Hawks on that end. Finney-Smith isn’t a name that will blow you away, but he shot 38.9% from deep across 211 games from 2020-2022. Kuzma averaged 21.2 points per game this season, and does several things pretty well (Kuz has a player option decision this offseason, so he might be a Free Agent instead of a trade).
I also want to mention the Hawks have to be careful that they don’t just give away Hunter, Collins, or Capela just for the sake of change (those players are too good for that), but it is likely time for the Hawks to make a change to their starting frontcourt.
3. Which Young Players are Building Blocks?
The Atlanta Hawks have three promising young pieces, but the franchise must now decide: which of them are building blocks, are any of them worth pushing starters in front of them out of the door, and whether to include any in potential trades this offseason.
Those players are Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, and AJ Griffin. Also, if you’ll notice, those are the Hawks; last three 1st round picks (Okongwu = 6th overall in 2020, Johnson = 20th overall in 2021, and Griffin = 16th overall in 2022). The Hawks have done well with those picks, but there are now decisions to be made.
Okongwu averaged 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game this year while shooting a very impressive 63.8% from the field (with strong defense) while serving as the Hawks’ backup center behind Capela.
Capela and Okongwu combined to form one of the best starting-backup center combinations in the league (and I would argue maybe even the best). While I’m sure the Hawks would love to just keep that duo together for a long time, Okongwu is heading into the final year of his rookie deal (and now extension eligible this offseason), and thus the Hawks have to make some kind of decision about what they believe his future to be this offseason. Is he ready to step in as the team’s starting center? That will be a key question this offseason.
Johnson averaged 5.6 points and 4.0 rebounds per game this season on 49.1% shooting. Johnson showed a ton of flashes this season in terms of his athleticism and playmaking, but now the Hawks must decide exactly what his role can be on a hopeful championship-caliber team next season. Johnson is also a guy that took a step forward late in the season once Quin Snyder took over (averaged 7.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.4 APG on 52.4% shooting under Snyder).
I’m not quite sure he’s ready for a starting role yet, but it’s hard to argue that Johnson is likely ready for more than the 14.9 minutes per game he averaged this season.
Griffin saw his playing time diminish under Snyder some but had an impressive rookie season overall. In total, he averaged 8.9 points and 2.1 rebounds per game on 46.5%/39.0%/89.4% splits while receiving some All-Rookie team consideration. Even with Griffin losing some minutes under Snyder, he still impressed as a rookie and is another guy the Hawks must decide exactly what role they want him to have next season.
Are these players ready to step into starting (or more prominent roles)? The Hawks must also decide if they are willing to include any of these three (and if so, which ones) in any pursuit of a star this off-season (more on that later).
4. Quin Snyder’s Vision?
One of the big plusses of the Atlanta Hawks making the coaching change when they did this past season was that it allowed new head coach Quin Snyder to get a head start with his new team. Not only was he able to begin implementing his new offensive and defensive schemes, but he was able to get a first-hand view of which incumbent players fit his vision for his Atlanta Hawks.
I would hope that Snyder will have at least some say in which players are brought back, and which are not. But that is one of the questions the Hawks must answer, what role will Snyder have this offseason in personnel decisions?
Snyder’s vision for the Hawks will also potentially dictate what outside players the team makes a run at (including both free agents and trade targets), and whether he has a direct say in the decisions or not.
We began to see some of Snyder’s vision for the team in the playoffs (for instance, with the Hawks attempting more 3-pointers against the Celtics than they did during the regular season), but as Snyder begins to implement all of his vision thnn that will likely dictate to an extent what players the Hawks bring back and which ones they target as additions.
5. Are Any Stars Attainable?
I couldn’t write this article without mentioning a certain star player that has Hawks fans in a tizzy (while also mentioning some others). Every Hawks fan has their eyes and ears all over the Boston Celtics to see any potential hint about the future of Marietta, GA native Jaylen Brown.
While much of the Brown-to-ATL noise is seemingly fans doing what fans do in likely reading too much into things, I wouldn’t say the chances of it are zero. Brown has been critical at times of his role in Boston (most recently following Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semis) and has been non-committal about his future with the C’s. Brown has just 1 year, $30.7 million left on his deal, and will be up for an extension this offseason (with the exact maximum amount of it to be determined this week based on whether he makes an All-NBA team or not).
At some point, Brown and the Celtics must make a decision. Are both sides ready to commit to each long-term? With Brown under contract for another year, the Celtics could very well decide to just let things ride out next season if an extension is not reached. However, if there is fear that they could lose one of their stars for free, then the Celtics *could* elect to seek a trade (or Brown *could* elect to try and push his way out).
They could also have to make a tough decision on whether the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown duo is one they want to continue to build around. Brown would be tough to get (even if he forced his way out). He is a 26-year-old who averaged 26.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game on 49.1% shooting with good defense this season. It would take a substantial package including players AND picks to get the deal done (and might force the Hawks’ hands on what decision to make about the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray duo).
I think the likelihood of Brown-to-ATL happening is very slim, but again it’s at least something the Hawks must keep their eye out for (and I don’t necessarily think the percent chance of it is zero).
Other stars that could potentially be on the move this offseason that the Hawks might have their eyes on include the likes of Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, Bradley Beal, and Zach LaVine. All of those players would have to be trade targets, and would not necessarily be cheap to get (depending on the exact situation).
Other names to watch in general are Kristaps Porzingis, Pascal Siakam, and Andrew Wiggins. Oh, and I wouldn’t rule out the Pelicans moving on from either Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram.