As the league’s oldest team, the Milwaukee Bucks need to look to win now. Their core is rather old, and they have few avenues to add young players.
There are always talks about a team’s timeline to win, whether it be the Miami Heat needing to capitalize on Jimmy Butler’s window or the always-discussed LeBron James window (that now feels everlasting) for the Los Angeles Lakers.
For the Milwaukee Bucks, however, it is an interesting case. They have had their window open ever since winning the 2021 NBA Finals, yet they now have bowed out in the first or second round in each of the last two postseasons.
This is quite concerning, as their window is coming to a close. This feels crazy to say with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster, but the Bucks’ window doesn’t revolve around their star as it does for the Heat and Lakers. For them, their window is closing because of everything present around Antetokounmpo.
The emerging problems for the Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks appear to be a team that will be entering the second apron upon signing more players, which will limit their roster flexibility. In addition to that, their main core around Antetokounmpo is getting really old, and they have a whole lot of money tied up there.
Last season, the Bucks’ roster’s average age was 30.5, the highest mark in the league. As of July 2, their average age of 30.2 remains the league’s highest. Let’s take a look at this Bucks core – disregarding the 2-time NBA MVP Antetokounmpo – and assess their ability.
While the core around Giannis is quite talented, there is a lot of money tied up into them for their age.
Khris Middleton
Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Robin (or the Batman if you ask ESPN’s Kendrick Perkins), struggled with injuries this past season, only playing 38 total games (33 regular season games, five postseason games). For a good chunk of the regular season, he was on a minutes restriction, coming off of the bench, or both.
In the Bucks’ lone playoff series versus the Heat, Middleton performed quite well. He averaged 23.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists on 60.0 TS% (46.5/40.6/86.7 splits), way up from his regular season averages that were lower due to the aforementioned reasons. He looked like his pre-injury self as a shot creator and shot maker, routinely knocking down those tough mid-range jumpers that we NBA fans were so accustomed to seeing during the 2021 championship.
Seeing his offense at the level is incredibly promising, but his defense was its worst in years. After being comfortably a pretty good defender for years, he was seen slower on his feet in the playoffs, and his screen navigation wasn’t quite amazing. Jimmy Butler routinely attacked him during that Round 1 series, as Middleton’s injuries must have hampered his defensive ability.
Middleton, who will be 32 years old when next season begins, just signed a 3-year, $102 million deal to remain with Milwaukee. When Middleton is healthy and performing, this is a fine contract for him, but I am worried about this deal. At age 35 in the 2025-26 season, Middleton will be paid $36.5 million; I honestly could see that being a contract that doesn’t look so amazing, especially if these injury issues persist. It feels like a lot of money locked up in uncertainty.
With that said, Middleton’s game and ability to knock down difficult shots should age pretty well, but the defense certainly worries me and is something to watch at the start of next season.
Jrue Holiday
Holiday was the piece that officially put the Bucks over the top in 2021. His two-way play as being a tenacious point-of-attack defender and all-around offensive game – the ability to get downhill, knock down pull-ups, space the floor, make plays, and be a legitimate pick-and-roll ball-handler – was the key to the lock for Milwaukee, as in exactly what they were missing.
A full two seasons later, Holiday provides the same two-way value. He is arguably the league’s best point-of-attack defender and still brings elite offensive value in the regular season, as he truly has few flaws in his offensive game. There really isn’t much that he is bad at offensively. All major advanced metrics, such as Basketball Index’s LEBRON, 538’s RAPTOR, DRIP, DPM, EPM, and LA-RAPM have him ranked, at the worst, at the 93rd percentile.
The reason why the regular season was italicized is because Holiday is unfortunately a playoff dropper on the offensive end. Over the last three postseasons combined (40 games), he has averaged 17.9 points per game on 47.6 TS% (39.6/30.4/75.0 splits), just terrible efficiency. His efficiency in the mid-range and from beyond the arc has dropped from each respective regular season, and the only season that his efficiency at the rim didn’t drop was this season.
It’s hard to act like this isn’t a concern for Milwaukee, as it certainly is. The thing is this, though: because of his defensive impact and playmaking, the Bucks are still roughly 12 points better per 100 possessions with Holiday on the floor compared to off of it. They need him. A large part of why his usage doesn’t drop in the postseason to counteract his efficiency dip isn’t only because of his playmaking ability but also because of Antetokounmpo’s overall offensive limitations and doubts of his ability to take on a larger – near heliocentric – role.
It’s easy to say that Jimmy Butler had the series of his life against Holiday, but that doesn’t consider that Holiday did a better job on Butler, who was just on another godly level, than any of his Bucks teammates. It isn’t Holiday’s fault that Butler was just on one and simply refused to miss.
But Holiday’s getting older. He’s quietly already 33 years old and is owed $72.3 million over the next two seasons. He’s worth that contract, but his $36.2 million per year is just a big hit on the Bucks’ salary. Holiday has publicly stated that he plans to retire once this contract is up, too. If he truly has two years left in the NBA, the Bucks should be trying to win immediately because of his value. It doesn’t seem likely that he’s traded because of this, so they shouldn’t expect any return.
Brook Lopez
The last member of the Bucks’ core four: Lopez. During his Milwaukee tenure, Lopez has reinvented himself from earlier in his career, where he was primarily a post-up player and was actually one of the league’s best in such context. In Milwaukee, however, he has become something of a 3-and-D big. He still has the ability to punish defenders in the post, but his main role offensively is to space the floor for Antetokounmpo, and he has become among the league’s best defenders.
He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting this past season, as his ability to contest shots at the rim and make an impact on them is simply amazing. Opponents shot 13.4% worse at the rim with Lopez as the closest defender, and there’s a serious argument to be made that Lopez is the best drop coverage big in the league. He was my DPOY pick.
At age 35, Lopez just had the best season of his career. His 15.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game in the box score may not compare to being a legitimate 20 points-per-game scorer early in his career, but when factoring in his absurdly impactful defense and career-high efficiency at 63.0 TS% (53.1/37.4/78.4 splits), it was just an awesome season for the former Stanford standout.
He had an awesome postseason, scoring 19.0 points per game on a 65.3 TS%, and maintained his high-level paint defense. Despite his age, he’s a high-impact player, which is why he was just signed to a 2-year, $48 million deal. It might be slightly large for him, but it’s a short deal. Plus, Lopez is just an awesome fit here that I truly don’t hate the contract. With that said, as mentioned with Holiday, that’s tying up a lot of money to a very old core, which hurts the rest of the roster.
The large sum of money between the Milaukee Bucks’ top four players limits the team’s depth, which has few avenues to improve with the roster’s age.
The depth of this team just isn’t amazing, and it’s a large part of why the Bucks lost to Miami. Grayson Allen, the likely starting shooting guard, will be 28 years old once the season begins. Sixth man Bobby Portis at age 28 is good, yes, but then you’re looking at 30-year-old Pat Connaughton as the 7th man isn’t super attractive. Jae Crowder, if in the rotation, is going to be 34 in the coming days.
There are two young players that have intrigue for Milwaukee. First is the 22-year-old Marjon Beauchamp, a player with major two-way upside who will find himself firmly in the rotation this coming season. His rookie year wasn’t great, but he flashed his defensive ability with some shot-creation ability.
The second is UConn’s Andre Jackson Jr., who they just drafted with the 36th pick in the draft. Jackson is a tenacious defender and is only 21 and should give the Bucks some help on the wing from day one. If the shooting can come along in the NBA, he could be one of the league’s better role players.
Still, that’s two players. If you’re doing math at home, the Bucks have nearly $190 million locked up into three players ages 31, 33, and 35 over the next two years. Yes, these guys are all impact players still, but this is still concerning. Think for the future in two seasons: these guys are going to be 33, 35, and 37.
Simply put, the main question to me is this: how are the Bucks going to get young talent around the 28-year-old Antetokounmpo? We can only assume Antetokounmpo will remain a top 5 or 10 player for years and years down the line, certainly longer than the two years (three for Middleton) that the remainder of the core four is locked up for. They need to hit on the draft picks that they have and hope that the current young players in Beauchamp and Jackson Jr. develop to be impactful players.
Ideally, they’re better than just impactful high-end role players. The modern NBA has shown that having one superstar isn’t enough to win in the NBA. There needs to be at least another star or two next to the superstar player, and the current Bucks core is just so old. It will be difficult to find or acquire a legitimate second star next to Antetokounmpo as the Holiday, Middleton, Lopez era fades.
In 2024 and 2026, the New Orleans Pelicans have rights to swap first-round picks with the Bucks. Milwaukee doesn’t own its 2025 or 2027 1st round selections. They have no second-round picks in 2025, 2026, 2028, or 2029. With fewer years and an easier explanation to understand, the Bucks really don’t have a ton of picks available to them. When they do, they will likely have picks late in the draft as long as Antetokounmpo is on the roster.
I worry about this roster. Think four years down the line if Antetokounmpo is on the roster and what does it look like? Of course, they could attract major free agents or make a huge trade, but as of right now, it just doesn’t look amazing. Holiday will likely retire, and Lopez may be too. Middleton will be 35, and over the next three seasons, the Bucks will have two late first-round picks and an early second-round pick from Portland. They are really banking on Beauchamp becoming something of a two-way star right now. The future is just very bleak.
Regardless of everything written here, the Bucks are still a really good team that could certainly compete for a title in 2023-24. Their best four players are arguably the best four-man group in the league, and perhaps a change of scenery in the coaching department with Adrian Griffin coming in is for the best.
Over the last two seasons when their entire core four is on the court, the Bucks boast an 11.8 NetRtg with a 125.1 offensive rating (which would rank 1st in NBA history) and a 113.3 defensive rating.