Which NBA MVP candidate is the most deserving of winning the award this season? We break it all down.
The NBA regular season has officially come to an end and that means the NBA MVP race, which has been very tight for most of the season, is finally complete. This year, three players finished the season as clear favorites to win the award: Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
If you look at the betting market and MVP power rankings online, you’ll see that one player has cemented himself as the likely winner. However, I’d argue the MVP race should be much closer than it actually is because the group of candidates is very strong this year.
Let’s dive into the three favorites for the MVP award going through each player’s case and see who should win the MVP award this year.
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
At this point, it’s not a real MVP race without Nikola Jokic, who will be an MVP finalist for the fourth year in a row.
At the moment, Jokic is the betting favorite to win the award and for good reason as he averaged a ridiculous 26 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists per game this season while shooting 58.3% from the field and 35.9% from three. He also shot 44% from mid-range, which was well above average this year.
His offensive output was insane as he was one of the more productive scorers and passers in the league as a big man, which is unheard of. He was one of 10 players to average 25 points per game on 60% true shooting while shooting 35% from three, showing that he was able to score at a high volume with scoring versatility while being extremely efficient.
He also had an assist rate of 42%, the fourth-best mark in the league, and this is the fourth season in a row in which he has had an assist rate of at least 40%. Very few players in NBA history would be able to produce so much offense and be so efficient while doing it.
Another reason why Jokic is a strong MVP candidate is because his defense was very solid. Of course, he doesn’t wreak havoc on this end of the floor by racking up a ton of steals and blocks. However, his basketball IQ shows up on defense and he has developed into a very solid defender over the years.
This season, the Nuggets ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency largely because they had very good pick-and-roll defense and they did a solid job of keeping their opponents from hitting shots at the rim. This would be difficult to do if Jokic were a sub-par defender.
Nikola Jokic is a machine who, like some of the best players to ever play the game, is able to produce all-time great seasons with ease, year after year. He did it again this season playing at a high level on both ends of the floor and leading the Nuggets to 57 wins and the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. it’s easy to see why he’s become the heavy favorite for the award even in a strong group of candidates.
2. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Like Jokic, Luka Doncic had a tremendous season in which he was an unstoppable offensive force.
His box score numbers were ridiculous as he averaged around 34 points, nine rebounds, and ten assists per game on 61.7% true shooting. He was so close to averaging a 30-point triple-double, which has only been done two times.
While Luka had been an all-world offensive player for the past couple of years, he took his game to another level this season, especially as a scorer. He was one of just four players to average 30 points on 60% true shooting and he was a dominant three-level scorer, shooting 74.6% at the rim, 48.1% from mid-range, and 38.2% from three.
A big reason why his scoring output improved this year is because he got way better as a three-point shooter. He attempted nearly 11 threes per game and hit 38.2% of them. He and Stephen Curry were the only players to shoot above league average from behind the arc on at least 10 attempts per contest.
On top of being one of the best scorers in the world, Luka was also one of the best passers. His assist rate of 44.3% ranked top three and he led the league in box creation, a stat that measures how many shots a player creates for his teammates, per 100 possessions. With this level of production as a scorer, shooter, and passer, you could argue Luka was the best offensive player in the league this season.
The one area where Luka wasn’t elite was on defense. Still, he was very solid on this end of the floor. His defensive impact metrics were above average across the board and he performed well in certain areas like in isolation and on post-ups. Certain stats probably overrate his defense or aren’t precisely measuring his skillset as an individual defender, but I don’t think he was a terrible defender this year and I’d argue he showed improvements on this end of the floor.
Overall, Luka Doncic was a dominant player this season and led the Mavericks to 50 wins and the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, giving him a very strong MVP case.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a breakout season last year, but apparently, that wasn’t enough as he became an absolute superstar this season.
SGA put together a terrific two-way campaign, averaging around 30 points, six rebounds, six assists, and two steals per game on 63.6% true shooting and his production was exceptional in pretty much every area.
Two areas where he shined the most were as a scorer and shooter. SGA was one of the best scorers in the league this season and he joined Luka as one of the only four players to score 30 points a game on 60% true shooting. One thing that makes him such an incredible scorer is his ability to operate in the mid-range. He attempted 9.6 mid-range shots per 75 possessions and he hit a ludicrous 50.7% of these shots.
That level of mid-range shooting is insane, especially when paired with his ability to attack the basket. He is a very good rim finisher and he generates 7.2 rim attempts per 75 possessions while shooting 66.6% at the basket.
Unlike most star guards, he didn’t take a ton of threes but he could hit them when he did as he shot 35.3% from behind the arc on 3.6 attempts per game. He didn’t have as good of an all-around scoring profile as Luka Doncic, but he was still a good three-level scorer who destroyed opposing defenses when he got inside the arc.
On top of being a great scorer, SGA is also a good passer. His ability to create shots for his teammates is exceptional and he was quite productive as a passer this season, sporting an assist rate of 29.8% and a ludicrous playmaking profile in terms of volume, efficiency, and versatility.
In my opinion, SGA was not as good offensively as Jokic or Luka, but he makes up for this by being a very active and impactful defender. He led the league in total steals this season and his aggressiveness as an off-ball defender is obvious when you watch him play.
Also, his defensive impact metrics were very strong, especially for a guard who plays a ton of minutes and carries such a big offensive load. I think this is because he was productive in a ton of areas, putting up great numbers in isolation, against pick and rolls, and against handoffs.
I really hope people don’t sleep on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander because he is a fantastic player who is good on both ends of the floor and just had a phenomenal season in which he led a young and inexperienced Thunder team to 57 wins and the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. If he were to win the MVP award, I would not complain whatsoever.
The NBA MVP verdict
Now that we’ve broken down the three favorites for the MVP award, we have to answer two big questions: who will win it, and who should win it?
Nikola Jokic appears to be a shoo-in to win the MVP this year. He is the clear favorite by betting odds on Fanduel and he ranks No. 1 on the basketball reference MVP tracker which uses historical trends to predict the MVP race.
It’s not surprising that Jokic is the favorite to be the MVP. He had an extremely productive season and led his team to one of the best records in the league. Also, he leads the league in most plus-minus metrics, which a lot of analytically savvy voters seem to care about a lot. All of this makes him a very obvious MVP candidate.
I would agree that Jokic should be the MVP. He was arguably the best offensive player in the league this season, he was a good defender, and his plus-minus data is insane. Even, though the field of candidates is really strong this year, Jokic was probably the most impactful player.
However, I’m surprised the MVP race isn’t closer because Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and even Giannis Antetokounmpo all have strong cases. If you think any of these guys should be the MVP, I won’t argue with you. Still, Nikola Jokic is inevitable and even though this is the least confident I’ve been in his MVP case over the last four seasons, I’d still vote for him to take home the hardware.