More than a quarter through the NBA regular season, we break down three rookies that have exceeded expectations and two that have fallen short.
There is so much, great, young talent all around the NBA today. It seems like almost every team has at least one young stud to build around. While the 2023 NBA draft was the sweepstakes for Victor Wembanyama (the most hyped incoming prospect since LeBron James), the class has had some very strong performers overall and it looks like this could be one of the sneakier, good NBA draft classes that we've had.
While Victor Wembanyama is off to a great start for his NBA career, it was to be expected, so you will not see him on this list. While other players like Brandon Miller, who was taken 2nd overall by the Charlotte Hornets, have played well enough to not have fallen short of expectations, yet haven't played well enough for us to say that he has usurped expectations as the 2nd pick.
With that, let's take a look at three rookies who have surpassed expectations and two who have fallen short.
NBA Rookies that have surpassed expectations
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (surpassed expectations)
Is it technically cheating to say that Chet Holmgren is a rookie who has surpassed expectations? I mean he isn't technically a rookie, he was drafted with the second overall pick in the NBA 2022 draft but missed the entire year with a foot injury. To add to that, he was the 2nd overall pick, so it's not like he wasn't supposed to be a good NBA player. But THIS good?
Solely looking at the glamour stats, Holmgren is checking the boxes: he averages 16.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.8 BPG with a shooting split of 52.1/37.3/87.1 (FG%/3PT%/FT%). These are rockstar numbers for a rookie. Diving a little bit further into his impact on the game, according to StatMuse, the league average true shooting percentage is 59.9%. Chet Holmgren's true shooting percentage is 63.5%, almost four percentage points higher.
Another measurement of Holmgren's meteoric rise to stardom is his player efficiency rating. A player's PER is a measurement of their per-minute production, standardized such that the league average is 15. According to basketball reference, Chet's PER is 21.1 which is significantly higher than the league average.
Many NBA pundits will use PER as the singular measurement of a player's quality of play. If Holmgren continues playing like this, he has a chance to put together one of the most remarkable statistical NBA rookie seasons we have seen in quite some time.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat (surpassed expectations)
Could it get more Miami Heat, than finding a franchise-altering difference-maker with the 18th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft? Give credit where credit is due, Jaquez Jr., stylistically, looked like a #heatculture guy. Coming out of UCLA as a senior he did a lot of things pretty well, but nothing that stood out.
In a draft analysis by RotoWire, featured on NBA.com, "Jaquez will likely begin his career competing for playing time but has the potential to develop into a quality bench player." Well, fast forward a couple of months and you will find Jaquez most likely coming off the bench, however, he's playing over 28 minutes per game and he has blown expectations of him being a "quality bench player," out of the water.
Jaquez brings great energy to a Heat team that is full of guys who bring great energy. It's these gritty, smart players that keep the Heat in contention year after year. Jaquez's glamour stats are very good for a rookie: 12.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.6 APG, with a shooting split of 50.5/37.3/ 84.2 (FG%/3PT%/FT%). While these aren't other-worldly numbers, who was expecting this from Jaquez in his first year, let alone at any point of his career? Pencil me in as an honorary member of The Monkees, because I'm a BELIEVER in Jaime.
Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks (surpassed expectations)
Dereck Lively II will be a little bit easier to explain his inclusion on this list. While other rookies such as Detroit Pistons' Ausar Thompson, Oklahoma City Thunder's Cason Wallace, and New Orleans Pelicans' Jordan Hawkins do deserve consideration for this spot, none of the aforementioned rookies start for a team that currently leads their respective division.
Out of the 23 games Lively II has played, he has started in 22 of them. To me, this is what separates Lively II from the others. In a draft analysis by RotoWire, featured on NBA.com, "Longer term, he could develop into a starter, especially if he blocks shots as expected and finds a point guard with great touch throwing alley-oops."
Well, suffice to say that he is already a starter and he's only going to get better as he gets more reps. His glamour stats won't wow you, 8.9PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.6 BPG, but those are solid numbers for a rookie center who might eventually become a starter.
The crazier numbers are when you investigate a little further and see that his field goal percentage sits at 73.4%, and his true shooting percentage is 72.8%, which is almost 15% higher than the league average. Free throws will be something that he'll need to work on in order to be more reliable for late-game scenarios, but it has been an incredible start to Lively II's career, and he is miles ahead of where expectations had put him.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers (fallen short of expectations)
Comparisons to Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul are usually tough to meet, especially for rookies. Sometimes it takes a season or two or three to enter such conversations. As for Scoot Henderson, this might be a 2-3 year project.
Henderson's physicality along with his court vision looked like a very polarizing blend coming out of the G League Ignite. You could see hints of some of the greatest point guards to play the game on his own and it was very easy to get excited about his style of play in the NBA. More than a quarter into the season, we might have to pump the breaks on Scoot Henderson being the next "Point God," at least for now.
So many times turnovers are a detriment to a young player's development and Henderson is no exception. It's been a small sample size, 19 games, however, Henderson currently sports a 1.34:1 assist-turnover ratio, meaning that for every 1.3 assists, he is turning the ball over. That is not great for a point guard, typically you'd want that ratio to be at least 2:1. If you are going to be turning the ball over, you might as well be efficient with shooting the ball, but unfortunately, that has also been spotty for Henderson, as he holds a shooting split of 37.3/23.5/78.4 (FG%/3PT%/FT%).
Scoot is a terrific athlete and he is still incredibly young, so this will hopefully just mean that the jump to the NBA has been more of an adjustment for him than originally thought. Some thought that in any other draft, he would be the de-facto first overall pick. And while comparisons are never truly fair, as each individual player holds their own unique play style and identity, it is tough to not be underwhelmed by Henderson so far in this early stage of his career. I'm rooting for him to turn it around, but so far it's been more bad than good.
Taylor Hendricks, Utah Jazz (fallen short of expectations)
Perhaps it isn't fair to single out a player who hasn't played much but when you are being compared to Pascal Siakam of the Toronto Raptors, it's hard not to be disappointed in Taylor Hendricks' start so far. Especially since he was deemed as one of the more "NBA-ready prospects," due to the fact that he was a sophomore coming out of UCF, boasting two years of very good college basketball.
Hendricks sits below the league average in true shooting percentage, 50.5%. Hendricks also sits below the league average in player efficiency rating, 9.5. While all of this is relatively expected of a rookie, it just feels like a bummer of a season for Hendricks. His glamour stats aren't better: 5.7 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 0.6 APG on a shooting split of 38.3/32.1/75.0 (FG%/3PT%/FT%).
He isn't turning the ball over at an alarming rate, but he does have more turnovers on the season (7) than assists (5) which is not helping him see court time. Like Scoot Henderson previously, there is still plenty of time to work out the kinks, but just can't help feeling a little disappointed in how his career has started thus far.
Rookies typically have a difficult time transitioning into the faster-paced, more athletic, and skilled style of basketball that the NBA plays with. To no fault of their own, sometimes they come in and have success right away, other times there is a transition period. It ultimately comes down to the work and the time they put in the gym working on their craft.
All five of these individuals listed previously have the chance to do something special in the league. Some of them are already doing it. Only time will tell. Will Chet, Jaime, and Dereck keep it up? Will Scoot and Taylor pick it up or continue to struggle?