Heading into the stretch run, we tier the six teams (and a few dark horses) that can legitimately win the 2024 NBA Championship.
The end of the 2024 NBA All-Star Break is nearly here. That means the push toward the postseason is right around the corner. This is the time when contenders will be holding nothing back as they attempt to prepare themselves for a potential title run. However, not every team in the league has the capability to win the title this season.
In fact, according to a specific formula we've been using to predict champions over the past two years, there are only a handful of teams that can realistically win the title this season.
Since utilizing this formula, the past two NBA champions (Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets) have successfully made this list. For a formula with a perfect batting average, it's pretty safe to say that the 2024 NBA champion is likely going to be on this list.
Before we jump into the teams that just missed the cut on making the list, let's break down the formula once again.
The formula for predicting an NBA Champion
1. A team has two stars and are top 10 in offensive and defensive rating or net rating
2. A team has two superstars and a top 10 offensive rating, a top 10 defensive rating, or a net rating.
3. A team has a top 5 offensive rating and defensive rating, and a top 5 record in the NBA.
If a team meets one or all of these criteria, they have a chance, based on my formula, to win the 2024 NBA Championship. This formula will now give us the only six teams (with a few dark horses) that can win an NBA Championship this season.
NBA teams that just missed the cut
New Orleans Pelicans
It may be a bit surprising that the New Orleans Pelicans nearly got the nod. The only real variable that is holding this team back is the fact that I don't necessarily feel as if they have two superstars on the roster. You can make the argument for Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, but I'm simply not there yet. That said, the Pelicans do have a top 10 defensive rating and net rating at the NBA All-Star Break.
If the Pelicans' offensive can play catch-up down the stretch, there's a very real chance the Pelicans could emerge as a potential dark horse to pull off a first-round upset in the Western Conference playoffs.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks don't have a top-10 offense, defense, or net rating. They're not even ranked in the top 6 of the Western Conference standings at the moment. However, they're just one game out of the 5th seed and four games out of the 3rd seed. They also have two clear-cut superstars on their roster with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic.
Even though they haven't been able to put it together in the regular season thus far, if they get hot in the postseason, this is a star duo that can make some noise.
The dark horse contenders
Indiana Pacers
To be quite honest, I was shocked when I ran the formula and saw the Indiana Pacers qualify as a team that could potentially win the championship this season. But I suppose all the math changed for the Pacers when they acquired Pascal Siakam just before the NBA Trade Deadline. In addition to a star duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Siakam, the Pacers have one of the best offenses in the league.
With a star duo and the second-best offensive rating in the league, the Pacers are going to be one of those teams that no team will want to face in a seven-game series when the playoffs roll around. They won't win the title this season but they're going to be a headache to deal with and, if they draw the right first-round opponent, they can certainly pull off a playoff upset.
Philadelphia 76ers
Even though the injury to Joel Embiid throws a wrench in the short-term outlook for the Philadelphia 76ers, this is still a team that qualifies as a potential dark-horse contender. And if Embiid returns, the Sixers become an even bigger - and more legitimate - in the Eastern Conference.
In addition to Tyrese Maxey, Embiid, and Buddy Hield, the Sixers have a top-10 offense and net rating. Their defensive rating also just falls outside the top 10. If it wasn't for the injury to Embiid, the Sixers would be a lot higher on this list. But because of that uncertainty, the Sixers can't be categorized as more than a dark horse threat.
The peripheral contenders
Phoenix Suns
Because of their injury history and their average defensive ranking, the Phoenix Suns are considered a peripheral contender in the Western Conference. But, make no mistake, there aren't many teams that will be lining up with a desire to face off against the Suns in a seven-game playoff series.
Miami Heat
Even though the Miami Heat have made the Eastern Conference Finals three times in the last four years, I still don't know what to make of this team at the NBA All-Star Break. However, with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo on the roster along with a top-10 defensive rating, I suppose you can't ever truly count out the Heat.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The way Donovan Mitchell has played this season, you have to consider the Cleveland Cavaliers when discussing teams that could potentially win the Eastern Conference. Add in Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, and the Cavs are going to be a formidable opponent for any team in a playoff series. With a top 5 defensive and net rating, the Cavs could very well make a deep playoff run.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the biggest surprises in the Western Conference this season and, at the NBA All-Star Break, they sit as the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Wolves have the best defense in the league and a top 5 net rating. If Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns (who are not quite at a superstar level yet) can continue to carry on the offensive end, the Wolves could be a real threat to make some noise in the postseason. For now, though, they aren't all that much of a contender.
The strong contenders
Denver Nuggets
I wasn't concerned about the Denver Nuggets just yet until I ran the numbers of this formula. Aside from the fact that the Nuggets have Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic on the roster, there's very little else that suggests they're going to be a strong contender heading into the postseason. But, I'll give the defending champs the benefit of the doubt. Right now, the Nuggets don't have a top-10 offense or defense. Their net rating is ranked 9th in the league. It's something to keep an eye on.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder were one of the highest-performing teams based on this formula. If they had a second superstar, they'd probably be my pick to win the championship this season. The Thunder have a top 5 offense, defense, and net rating. The question is, how far can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander carry this team in the postseason?
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks may be a bit of a mess but their talent is something that you can't count out. If they figure it out, it wouldn't be surprising at all if they managed to win it all. With Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, it's their top 5 offense that will give them a realistic shot to win it all. But, woof, things don't look great for the Bucks at the moment.
New York Knicks
As you would expect, the New York Knicks measured as the team in the Eastern Conference with the second-best shot to win the NBA Championship based on the formula. Led by Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby, the Knicks will have a decent shot to make a run to the conference finals. With a top-10 offense, defense, and net rating, it's hard not to take the Knicks as a serious threat in the East.
The heavy favorites to win it all
LA Clippers
It hasn't been talked about much but the LA Clippers should be considered one of the favorites to win it all this season. Since making the move for James Harden, the Clippers have been arguably the best team in the league - and that includes the Boston Celtics. As long as they can remain healthy, the trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Harden should be able to make a deep run in the West.
The Clippers also have a top 5 offense and net rating on the season to hammer home the eye test.
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are obviously the most complete contender in the NBA right now. They have a great roster with 3-4 stars and at least two superstars. They also have a No. 1 offense, No. 3 defense, and No. 1 net rating in the league. If the Celtics aren't at least an NBA Finals participant, it would be the biggest surprise of the season thus far.
Entering the playoffs, the Celtics are going to be head and shoulders the favorite to come out of the East. I'd also have to think that they'll be favored in any NBA Finals matchup no matter who comes out of the West.
My educated prediction based on this formula
Looking at the landscape of the league after running the formula, there are a few teams that I can see winning it all this season. Making a prediction could prove to be difficult. However, isn't that the point of it all? I'd be pretty silly if I didn't pencil in the Boston Celtics to come out of the Eastern Conference. With how much talent they have on their roster, assuming they don't suffer a massive injury, this is a team that should make the NBA Finals.
Where it gets difficult is predicting who will come out of the Western Conference. I could legitimately see the LA Clippers, Denver Nuggets, or even a team like the Phoenix Suns win the West. For now, I think I'm going to go out on a limb and pick the Clippers to win the West. It may not be a popular pick but if they can avoid injuries down the stretch, this is a team that is built to win it all.
I predict that the Celtics will win the NBA Finals in six games over the Clippers. Of course, a lot can change between now and the NBA Finals but that's how I would predict it if I had to right now. Either way, let's enjoy the final stretch of the season.