The Orlando Magic have exceeded regular season expectations, but are they ready to defy odds in the NBA Playoffs?
The Orlando Magic have gone under the radar this season despite being a top-five seed in the Eastern Conference and being on pace to win nearly 50 games. They are currently the fifth seed in the East, a surprising outcome considering they were at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings just a year ago.
When you break down why they have been successful this season, it’s clear that their biggest strength is their defense, which ranks among the best defensive units in the league according to advanced metrics. Let’s take a look at what makes their defense so effective, why their defense is far from perfect, and whether or not their sluggish offense will hold them back in the postseason.
It’s all about the little things for the Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic were pretty solid on defense last season, sporting the 14th-best defensive rating in the league in 2022. This season, their defense has taken a huge leap as they now have the second-most efficient defense in the league by this metric.
The Magic have a weird and unique profile on defense. The reason why is that they do a lot of small things at a high level on this end of the floor, but there are also a few significant issues with their defense. Let’s start with what they do well.
For starters, the Magic are exceptional at wreaking havoc on defense and forcing turnovers. They are one of just five teams to average eight steals and five blocks per 100 possessions and they lead the league in forced turnover rate with a mark of 13.8%.
The Magic have a ton of size on their roster. The shortest players in their three most used five-man lineups are Gary Harris and Markelle Fultz, who are both 6-foot-4, and they use this size to their advantage by disrupting passing lanes and erasing shots at the basket.
The Magic are also extremely good at grabbing defensive rebounds, ranking second in the league in defensive rebound rate. Five of their players rank in the top 50 in this metric, so it's clear that they have made this a big priority in their defensive game plan.
It’s important to know that rebounding is a very important part of the game. It isn’t quite as important as scoring efficiently or limiting turnovers, but it is one of the most important factors when it comes to winning games. Keeping opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds and getting second-chance opportunities is very important and the Magic do this at a very high level.
The Orlando Magic have an aggressive yet imperfect defense
While the Magic have been efficient on defense this season, there are some big red flags in their defensive profile.
For starters, their defensive effective field goal percentage, a metric that measures scoring efficiency by giving more weight to threes, is 12th in the NBA. That’s above average, but defensive rating is heavily correlated to this metric, so it’s pretty surprising that their defense has been so efficient this year.
When you watch their defense, there are some major issues that make their opponents’ scoring efficiency make a lot more sense. For starters, the Magic struggle to defend pick-and-rolls. They don’t have a great shot blocker and opposing teams, especially those with strong offensive creators like the Boston Celtics, have been able to take advantage of this and generate shots at the rim with ease.
Their production against pick-and-rolls has been quite disappointing this season as they allow 0.93 points per possession against pick-and-roll ball handlers (21st percentile) and 1.16 points per possession against pick-and-roll roll men (41st percentile). On top of this, they also struggle to defend in one-on-one situations as they allow 1.01 points per possession in isolation (7th percentile).
Another issue with their defense is how often teams take advantage of their off-ball defense. There are simply too many times when they provide support in help defense on the strong side of the court (the side of the court where the ball is) and this puts their defense out of position and gives their opponents easy shots.
This is concerning because teams with great offensive units are going to be able to exploit these weaknesses in the playoffs. I'm just not sure how the Magic can survive very long in the postseason with weak pick-and-roll defense and an aggressive playstyle that leads to lapses in help defense.
What about the Orlando Magic's offense?
What about the other side of the ball? Unfortunately, there are big question marks here as well. Right now, the Magic rank 23rd in offensive rating, indicating that they have a below-average offensive unit. However, like their defense, their offense profile is fascinating.
Although their offensive rating looks poor, there are a few things to like about their offense. Despite being inefficient overall, their scoring efficiency is solid as they rank 15th in effective field goal percentage. On top of that, they rank 6th in offensive rebound rate and 3rd in free throw rate, two of the most important predictors of offensive success.
One of the best parts of their offense is their effectiveness when cutting toward the basket. They rank 4th in terms of what percentage of their plays are cuts at 8.8% and they average 1.37 points per possession (83rd percentile) on these plays.
It's also been exciting to see them allow Paolo Banchero to take control of their offense and learn how to be a high-usage offensive creator. He leads the team in usage rate at 29.4% and he has an assist rate of 25.3%, a strong mark for a guy his size.
Unfortunately, there are some big red flags with the Magic's offense.
For starters, they are one of the worst shooting teams in the entire league, as they rank 23rd in three-point field goal percentage and 28th in mid-range field goal percentage. They are above average in shooting at the rim, but their perimeter shooting leaves a lot to be desired.
I'm also worried that Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the Magic's two best players, aren't quite ready to lead this team's offense in the playoffs. While both players are talented and have been fairly productive early on in their careers, they aren't super efficient scorers and neither is an elite playmaker yet.
Banchero has a chance to be an incredible offensive force and he displays high-level flashes as an offensive player. However, he makes questionable decisions and turns the ball over a bit too often for my liking.
What is the Orlando Magic's ceiling?
In some ways, the Orlando Magic are being under-discussed to a criminal degree. The fact that a team this young is having so much success despite having very few expectations heading into the season is incredible and more people should be talking about them.
However, that doesn't mean the Magic are a great team and it definitely doesn't mean they are ready to make a deep playoff run. In fact, I'd say they are still at least a year away from having any kind of postseason success.
The reason why I feel this way is because they are young, inexperienced, and have major red flags on both ends of the floor. The lack of perimeter shooting and the fact that they leaning on young, inefficient wings to be their offensive engines is a tough pill to swallow. Also, the fact that they struggle to defend one-on-one, have sub-par pick-and-roll defense and make a lot of mistakes in help defense could be massive problems in the playoffs.
This doesn't mean the Magic are a bad team, because they aren't. They just aren't ready yet and they have a few weaknesses that will hurt them in the postseason. However, the ceiling is high for this team and we could see them be an awesome team down the road. Watch out, because the Magic aren't going away anytime soon.