Ranking seven prospects that will be in play for the Atlanta Hawks as they hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
When the Atlanta Hawks jumped up to the No. 1 overall pick all the way back from the 10th best odds back in the lottery, it further added pressure to one of the biggest offseasons in Hawks history. After three straight disappointing seasons, the Hawks have one major question to answer after another. What to do about Trae Young and Dejounte Murray? What about Clint Capela? De'Andre Hunter? Is Onyeka Okongwu ready to start? Is Jalen Johnson ready to take the next step? Do you jump into a rebuild (which is tough to do without several of your own picks)? Do you "reload"? Do you make small changes?
And now, what to do with the No. 1 overall pick? In a draft without a clearcut No. 1 guy. And now things have gotten even murkier in recent days.
With all of that being said, I believe that there are seven options for the Hawks (well, really it's 3 different things and then branches off of those). So, without any further ado, here are the Hawks options for Wednesday night.
Option #1: Draft French Center Alex Sarr at No. 1 overall
Right after Atlanta won the lottery, it felt like Alex Sarr to the Hawks at No. 1 felt for sure. I mean, he spent time in Atlanta at Overtime Elite, he is a high-potential 7-foot-1 unicorn-type prospect who could excel alongside whichever point guard stays and then Jalen Johnson, and has the most potential of any player in the draft.
Soon after, Zaccharie Risacher (who we will discuss later) entered the No. 1 pick discussion, and now other options have emerged as well.
However, over the last two weeks, things have just felt off between the Hawks and Sarr. Up to this point, Atlanta has reportedly not had Sarr in for a workout and two other prospects (who we will touch on a good bit here in a second) have gained a ton of steam towards being the Hawks' targets. Reports have also begun to surface that the reason for this is some mixture of Sarr wanting to play Power Forward in the NBA and wanting to be a focal point of an offense. Both things might be easier for him to do elsewhere than in Atlanta (with burgeoning star Jalen Johnson at Power Forward and the Hawks currently having two ball-dominant Point Guards in Young and Murray).
Now, this does kind of feel a lot like the 2022 NBA draft with the Magic and Paolo Banchero. The Magic never brought Banchero in for a workout either and leading into the draft there was a lot of movement regarding Jabari Smith Jr. and Orlando at No. 1. However, the Magic seemed to have Banchero as their guy all along and picked him at No. 1. That very well could happen here. There have been A LOT of conflicting reports here. Plus, the Hawks have likely seen a lot of Sarr while he was with Overtime Elite, so they could still feel comfortable drafting him anyway, even without a private workout.
I believe that Sarr has the highest potential of any player in the draft. As a 7'0 athletic center with the ability to work away from the basket, Sarr is another one of these modern-day bigs. Now, Sarr does not have the potential or hype that Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren have had in the previous drafts, but he has a lot of potential.
For Perth in the Australian NBL this past season, Sarr averaged 9.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game on 52% shooting from the field (and he went 14-for-47 from three on the year), while playing roughly 17 minutes per game. His per-36 numbers are 20.3 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.
While Sarr has the highest potential in the draft class, the pick is not without risk. There are questions about his ability to finish around the rim, as well as his rebounding. I think it would be difficult for the Hawks to pass on Sarr's potential, but there are a lot of options and things at work.
Option #2: Draft French Forward Zaccharie Risacher at No. 1 overall
Zaccharie Risacher is a 6-foot-8 forward who is a strong shooter, and has a bit of a floor as a 3-and-D in the NBA, but has the potential to turn into a strong scoring wing who can help run the offense, while also providing value defensively.
It has been an up-and-down last few years for Risacher, but he played very well this past season for Bourg in France. On the year (in total between EuroCup and LNB Pro A), he averaged 11.1 points and 3.8 rebounds per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 42.4% from three in just over 22 minutes per game. Those are per-36 numbers of 17.6 points and 6 rebounds per game.
The biggest concern with Risacher appears to be a lack of on-ball play-making ability. His development in that area will likely determine whether he can turn into a legit top-3 option or "just" be a 3&D player.
Nevertheless, his 3-point shooting ability (as long as you believe it will translate), does provide a bit of a floor to the pick. Risacher would presumably pair with Jalen Johnson to form a quality forward duo for the Hawks, although it could further cloud the future of De'Andre Hunter with the franchise.
Option #3: Draft UConn Center Donovan Clingan at No. 1 overall
This might be the pick with the most steam in recent weeks when it comes to the No. 1 overall pick. While Donovan Clingan might not have the ceiling of an Alex Sarr or Zaccharie Risacher, he does have a lot of qualities that the Hawks would like.
He averaged 13 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game this past season at UConn on 63.9% shooting from the field. Clingan measures in at nearly 7-foot-2 with a nearly 7-foot-7 wingspan, giving him elite size and length.
One of the big questions for Clingan will be whether he can develop any kind of 3-point shot. He has reportedly looked good in workouts in that category, however his Free-throw percentage (often a precursor for college big-men who were not 3-point shooters in college developing a 3-point shoot in the NBA) was just 58.3%.
Another concern is over his foot speed, which raises questions about his ability away from the basket on both ends of the court.
On the high end, he could have a Rudy Gobert-level impact defensively (which is going to be hard to reach). You are also hoping that Clingan can continue to develop offensively and that potentially playing alongside Young would help.
Option #4: Trade back with the Wizards to No. 2 overall and select Donovan Clingan
This is one look at what the trade could look like.
This move would help the Hawks on a couple of fronts.
1. It moves Capela, which appears to be one of the Hawks' main goals this offseason (especially with a center coming in with the draft pick).
2. They add a proven scorer in Kyle Kuzma.
The Wizards have been flirting with trading Kuzma for a while now (much like with the Hawks and several of their players), and this move does it for them and also gives the Hawks a guy who could be their #2/#3 option this season.
Kuzma averaged 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game this past season on 46.3% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three. That is more or less on par with where Kuzma has been for most of his career. He has career averages of 17.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game on 45.1% shooting and 33.7% 3-point shooting across 7 seasons.
The Hawks would now have a forward pairing of Kuzma and Jalen Johnson to mix and match with at the 3 and the 4, and then Clingan and Onyeka Okongwu splitting time at the 5.
The contracts for Kuzma and Capela are near-matches in terms of 2024/25 salary. Capela has 1-year, $22.3 million left on his contract. Kuzma meanwhile has 3-years, $64.4 million left on his deal (making $23.5 million in 2024). That would allow the two to be straight swaps along with the picks.
This feels like a win-win-win for all sides. The Hawks move Capela, add a dynamic scoring forward, and a center they really like. The Wizards move Kuzma, add a potential Franchise player in Alex Sarr, and add Capela. And if the reports are true of what Sarr wants, this trade would open up the door for that in the nation's capital for him.
It is also worth noting that this is just one option of the assets attached to the Hawks' move-down from 1 to 2 could look like. The teams could decide to just exchange picks.
Option #5: Trade further back (picks 3-6) to select Donovan Clingan
If the Atlanta Hawks feel that pick 1 or 2 would be too high for Clingan, they could elect to trade back to picks 3-6 and pick him there. Trading further back would open the door for the Hawks to add future draft picks (such as getting their 2025 1st-rounder back from the Spurs in a potential trade back to pick No. 4).
The teams currently slotted to pick 3-6 are:
3. Rockets
4. Spurs (as previously discussed)
5. PIstons
6. Hornets
If the Hawks have their eyes on Clingan though, the concern would be what if Atlanta trades back, but then someone picks Clingan before the Hawks come back around. That would be the risk here, even though adding an extra pick or two would be huge for a Hawks team that traded multiple-rounders to the Spurs for Dejounte Murray two years ago.
The Rockets seem close to being a top 6 team in the West after a 41-41 season with a young roster, so their exact plans with the No. 3 pick are intriguing.
Detroit and Charlotte both seem to be in similar positions. They both have young talent (Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, and Jaden Ivey in Detroit and then Brandon Miler and LaMelo Ball in Charlotte), yet it just has not worked up to this point. This might lead either team to be desperate enough to want to jump up to No. 1 to land who they feel would be a franchise-level player. (I should give Charlotte a bit more of a pass here since Miller was just a rookie this past season).
The issue with trading all the way back to 5 or 6 would be that it is a major risk to move that far back if Clingan is your target, as I am not sure he will be there. However, if the Hawks want to get all of the capital of moving back that far, they could have their eyes on someone else.
Option #6: Trade further back (picks 3-6) to select Kentucky Guard Reed Sheppard
Reed Sheppard is an interesting prospect in this draft class for me. While he does not have the upside of a lot of the players in this draft, I think he profiles really well as a strong 3-point shooter and contributor at the next level. He was also a strong defender at Kentucky (although his size could limit his effectiveness on that end of the court at the next level).
In his lone season at Kentucky, Sheppard averaged 12.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game on 53.6% shooting from the field and a whopping 52.1% 3-point shooting (was 75-for-144 from three overall on the year). He was named SEC Freshman of the Year. Again, the elite 3-point shooting is the key here.
On the other end of the court, as you can see by the steals, Sheppard has a knack for creating turnovers. The advanced stats also loved his impact defensively on Kentucky. Although once again the size is a bit of an issue, plus there are some concerns over whether that defense will translate to the next level.
Now, there are some concerns with Sheppard. Partly due to him only starting five games for the Wildcats on the year, as well as his relatively lower ceiling. There are also some concerns over his size (6'3, 187) with him likely serving as a 2-guard at the next level. However, he is a player who could help the Hawks both early and long-term. If he grows as a ball-handler, that would only stand to help him at the next level as well.
Nevertheless, it is rare to find players with as much potential as 3-point shooters as Reed Sheppard.
Option #7: Trade further back (picks 3-6) to select G League Ignite Forward Matas Buzelis
Matas Buzelis is another intriguing forward option for the Atlanta Hawks. Buzelis is from Chicago, but both of his parents are Lithuanian immigrants and are both former basketball players themselves. Buzelis was a five-star recruit in the 2023 class but elected to go play for G League Ignite instead of college.
With the Ignite, Buzelis averaged 14.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, two assists, and 2.1 blocks per game. He shot 44.8% from the field and 27.3% from three. While those shooting numbers are not great, he does have a lot of potential on both ends of the floor.
The size as a 6-foot-9 small forward could fit alongside Jalen Johnson and give the Hawks some needed size and length on the wings. While he can still stand to grow as a pure ball-handler and creator, he has shown the potential to be a secondary ball-handler. His size and length relative to his position also give him a strong defensive potential.
The key to Buzelis' fit in Atlanta would likely come down to the development of a 3-point shot. Plus, if he really does boom as a ball-handler, a 6'9 ball-handling wing is always a plus.
At the end of the day, I really do not know what the Hawks will do over the next 48 hours, and any of these options could realistically happen in my opinion.