Denver Nuggets: A Sleeper in 2014-15?

After winning just 36 games last year, albeit in a loaded Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets decided this summer it was time to inject some youth and some talent into their team. They swung a deal with Orlando for Arron Afflalo, one of the most continuously underrated shooting guards in the game, and later sent Doug McDermott to Chicago for draft picks that would become Jusuf Nurkic, and Gary Harris.

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The trio represent a considerable amount of talent coming to the Mile High City, and while this was a necessary step towards returning to a winning path, they have more weapons locked and loaded, already on the roster. Danilo Gallinari missed all of last season with a torn ACL, an injury shared by teammates Nate Robinson and J.J. Hickson, both of whom joined the Nuggets last summer. JaVale McGee missed all but five games last season with a stress fracture in his left leg, and starting point guard Ty Lawson missed 20 games himself.

All are expected back healthy for this year, further adding depth to Denver’s rotation. Wilson Chandler will likely start at the three, with Gallinari backing him up in a reserve role as he gets accustomed to playing competitive basketball again. Robinson will share time with Lawson at the point guard spot, and Afflalo will have two backups in form of Harris and Randy Foye.

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Up front, the rotation tightens. Kenneth Faried, who has yet to play more than 28 minutes a game during his career, is the unquestioned starter, and will be backed up by Hickson although neither is a plus defender. McGee, Nurkic, and Timofey Mozgov make up the center rotation, which is easily the most worrying part of the Nuggets roster. There’s depth there, but it still consists of a guy coming off a major injury, a 20-year old rookie, and a somewhat limited player.

Gaining a complete picture of the Nuggets, even despite their depth, proves difficult however. A lot of their potential is left to assumptions about their health and diversity, the latter of which there is little.

The Nuggets like the long-ball. Randy Foye, who in the past three years have become one of the NBA’s best three-point shooters, is leading that charge once again, after having canned 494 shots from downtown at 39.2% in his last 228 games. Wilson Chandler employs the same gunning philosophy as Foye, but with weaker results as he drained just 34.8% of his 351 attempts last year. Afflalo, the more conservative Lawson, and Gary Harris, will further increase that long-range shooting number. The Nuggets took just under 24 shots a game from behind the arc, ranking ninth in the league last year, which is a trend they don’t plan to break anytime soon.

Where their offensive game suffers is through consistent shot-creation. At 5’11, Ty Lawson simply can’t create his own shot as the likes of Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker. He’s doing an adequate job of finishing at the rim (57.5%), but his volume isn’t quite high enough for defenders to view him as the same sort of threat as Westbrook and Parker. With no other on-ball creator on the team outside of 5’9 Nate Robinson, it means harder work for good looks, which is very much noticed in Lawson’s 4th quarter numbers:

During the first through third quarter, Lawson stays between 44.3 and 44.6% shooting. This drops to 38% in the final quarters, due to a combination of higher intensity and his own lack of size. When defenses key in on him, he has no one alongside him with the ability to create something out of nothing. Lawson’s ball-handling is creative and will more often than not get himself out of a pinch, but to go from that and to acquiring himself high-quality looks off it, is a different story.

The Nuggets are hoping Afflalo and Gary Harris can come in and take over some possessions from Lawson, and are in particular hoping Afflalo at 6’5 can create some strong looks for himself, despite not being a full-time on-ball creator.

In correlation with Lawson’s late-game struggles comes the enigma of Kenneth Faried.

While Faried increased his scoring, still rebounds superbly, and is a high-energy guy, he’s lacking two major elements that are instrumental to the Nuggets’ aforementioned lack of versatility. He can’t shoot outside of 10 feet, and his defense moves from being below average to him having a big red target on his back. Faried allows deep post position far too often, is frequently caught watching the ball, and he isn’t a rim protector unless the match-up is heavily favored to his benefit.

These shortcomings are clear signs of why his amount of minutes are limited, and in relation to Lawson’s struggles, he’s not helping in that area either. If Faried sets up a pick for Lawson, the defense will ease back and let Faried catch the ball at the 16-17 feet area where he can’t do anything with the rock but hand it back to a guard, who then re-sets the offense. If Faried charges through a set defense, every defense will play the odds and let him attack, trusting their positioning. Where Faried does his damage is in the open court, through broken players, and through an improved hook shot he’s begun using on occasion.

Similarly, these offensive issues are also valid when discussing JaVale McGee.

While you could make the point that Denver is too keen on the long-ball, they need a big who can step out and shoot the basketball. The spacing they currently do not get from either Faried or McGee, is hindering perimeter players in getting to the hoop at a consistent level. Their somewhat high ranking of points in the paint (6th in league) came partly off them having the 8th best fast break offense, and partly because they ranked 6th in offensive rebounding, leading to put-backs.

So with all that in mind, where does this leave Denver, and how should we view them?

In the NBA, talent trumps, and Denver is indeed talented. Their depth and skill-level, in particular on the perimeter, are huge assets, assuming the injury bug doesn’t bit as hard this year, as last. Furthermore, most players are either in, or close to, their primes which should catapult the team into a more realistic place than their 36-46 outline from last season, making them a slight sleeper.