If the title of this article looks familiar it’s probably because I wrote an article with the same title just before the 2008-09 NBA season started.
Just a few days after my article was posted, Chad Ford of ESPN.com wrote his own article with his own list.
I’m proud to say that my list turned out to be more accurate than that of an ESPN expert. Of the ten players that I listed, five were traded either by the deadline (Allen Iverson, Shawn Marion, and Chris Wilcox) or during the off-season (Jamal Crawford and Darko Milicic) and another was bought out of his contract and released (Antoine Walker).
While last year’s list was mostly made up of upcoming free agents like Iverson and Marion, there were also guys on the list like Kirk Hinrich that I felt could be traded because it seemed as if the team had already drafted his replacement.
This year’s list has it’s share of upcoming free agents but there are also players on the list who could be traded either because they don’t fit on their existing squads, their team is trying to free up more cap space for next summer’s free agent bonanza, or because the down economy has forced some teams to shed salaries—even if the player(s) coming back don’t equal what the team is giving up.
So here’s this year’s version of what looks like what will become an annual event.
1. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Ilgauskas is heading into his 14th season as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Along with Kobe Bryant, there isn’t another player in the league who has been on his current team as long as they have.
Big Z is in the final season of a contract that pays him $11.5 million and could be used to net the Cavs the final piece to not only make a run at a title this year but also to keep LeBron James from fleeing to another team next summer.
But there’s a catch.
The only deal that I can envision the Cavs making is the type of deal where the team that trades for Ilgauskas buys him out immediately, making him an unrestricted free agent—free to re-sign with the Cavs just like Brent Barry did in 2008 when he was traded to Seattle for Kurt Thomas and re-signed with the Spurs after sitting out the mandatory 30 days.
The rumor that has floated around for the past few weeks had Ilgauskas headed to Golden State for guard/forward Stephen Jackson.
While this deal makes a lot of sense for all parties involved, the only way that the Warriors would buy out Ilgauskas would be if the trade was made close enough to the deadline so that Golden State wouldn’t have the time to either see if Ilgauskas fit in with the current squad or to see if they could flip Ilgauskas again before the February 18 deadline.
2. Stephen Jackson
Jackson has made no secret that he wants to be traded out of Golden State. After crying about wanting an extension last season, despite having two seasons left on his current deal, Jackson has now asked the Warriors to move him to either the Cavs or one of the three Texas teams.
The problem is that Jackson’s three-year, $28 million extension doesn’t begin until next season. Teams interested in Jackson would only be willing to do so if it meant they could give up substantially less talent in return or an unwanted contract.
Jackson doesn’t seem to understand that the more he keeps his name in the media for the wrong reasons the harder it will be for the Warriors to grant him his wish.
In a perfect world, the Warriors would love to get one or two expiring contracts and another player on a rookie contract in exchange for Jackson. That way they would at least have something more than salary relief to show for the trade after this season.
Even if the Warriors traded Jackson for expiring contracts they would still be over the salary cap next season. So there’s no sense in just trading him for expiring contracts.
3. Andre Miller
I can’t say with certainty whether or not Miller will be traded before the deadline. What I can say is that there’s almost no chance that Miller plays out the maximum three years on the $21 million contract he signed with the Blazers in July.
Miller has already expressed his unhappiness with having to compete with Steve Blake to be the team’s starting point guard. He claims he was misled by general manager Kevin Pritchard and head coach Nate McMillan when he signed his contract.
Make no mistake, the Blazers didn’t want Andre Miller in June and they don’t want him now. After striking out on Hedo Turkoglu, Paul Millsap, David Lee, and Lamar Odom, the Blazers were forced to use their available cap space or they would have lost it next season when the extensions for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge kicked in.
Only the first two seasons of Miller’s contract are guaranteed while the third year is a team option.
The Blazers will move Miller to bring in the player that they really need—the only question is whether or not it happens in 2010 or 2011.
4. Michael Redd
The Bucks insist they have no intention of trading Redd but I don’t believe them for a second. As great as Redd is when he’s healthy, he’s not the type of player who can sell tickets on a team as bad as the Bucks are projected to be this season.
The team’s owner, Sen. Herb Kohl, has already stated that he’d be willing to listen to offers for his team. It’s no secret that the team would be much easier to sell without the $18 million Redd is due to make next season when he exercises the option on his contract’s final year.
The Bucks currently have just under $19 million guaranteed to three players for the 2011-12 season. By cutting next season’s payroll down the next owner of the team would have attractive lottery picks in the next two drafts as well as plenty of cap space with which to put a competitive team in place in only two years.
First things first, the Bucks need Redd to stay healthy and show no ill-effects from the ACL and MCL tears he suffered last January.
5. Allen Iverson
Iverson is one of only two players I have on both last year’s list as well as this year’s. I don’t know if he’s going to get traded but I do know he won’t be on the Grizzlies when the season ends.
In all likelihood, Iverson will be bought out by the Grizzlies in time to sign on with a contender for the remainder of the season and be eligible for the playoffs.
While there are still 25 teams that won’t touch Iverson, there are teams who would be much more attracted to him if they lose one of their primary scorers to an injury or if the team has such a veteran presence that there’s little risk of Iverson going rogue.
If the Celtics were willing to take a chance on Stephon Marbury, why wouldn’t they take a chance on Iverson?
6. Wilson Chandler
Relax, Knicks fans, just hear me out. Chandler is one of the most underrated players in the NBA and, unlike 80 percent of their current roster, looks like he’s going to be a part of their future.
While the Knicks will have the cap space next summer to make a run at one significant free agent they won’t have the freedom to sign two without moving either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries first.
The reason Chandler is on the list is because, without a first-round pick in next year’s draft, he’s the Knicks most attractive asset. If they hope to shed either Curry or Jeffries before next summer they will most likely have to include Chandler since last season’s first-round pick, Danilo Ganillari is coming off of back surgery and this year’s lottery pick, Jordan Hill, looks like a long-term project.
Both Curry and Jeffries are signed through 2011. There’s no scenario in which I can envision another team trading a contract that expires at season’s end for nothing but the right to overpay Jeffries or Curry next season.
7. Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic
The World Champs already have the league’s highest payroll and that doesn’t include the $12 million they’re paying for head coach Phil Jackson. They have five players, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Adam Morrison, DJ Mbenga, and Josh Powell, entering the final year of their contracts and a sixth, Shannon Brown, who has a player option for next season.
Fisher, Farmar, and Brown are the team’s only point guards. If the Lakers had the opportunity to move Farmar and either Morrison’s expiring contract or the two remaining years on Vujacic’s contract for a franchise point guard they might jump at the chance to do it.
By moving Vujacic and allowing Morrison and Brown to leave after the season they could add that point guard without increasing next year’s payroll by much.
If they moved Farmar and Morrison, instead of Farmar and Vujacic, they would still be on the hook for one more year of Vujacic’s contract.
Considering that the Lakers are high above the luxury tax, the incoming player would cost them double with the luxury tax next season—making a trade with Farmar and Morrison less likely to happen than one with Farmar and Vujacic but not out of the realm of possibility.
8. Kirk Hinrich
Hinrich is the only other player besides Iverson who also appeared on last year’s list. While there is a chance that Hinrich gets moved before the deadline there’s a much greater chance that he gets moved during the off-season.
The main reason is that the Bulls have a legitimate shot at signing Chicago-native Dwyane Wade next summer. There is a chance that the Bulls could have a sufficient amount of cap space to sign Wade just by renouncing their rights to Tyrus Thomas and keeping Hinrich, but they would have very little cap space to finish filling out the remainder of their roster.
Due to the presence of the NBA’s reigning Rookie of the Year, Derrick Rose, Hinrich is now primarily a shooting guard but he could still be an upgrade at point guard for nearly half the league.
If the Bulls could move Hinrich for a big man that makes a little bit less money, then they could use their available cap space to make a serious run at Wade.
9. Kenny Thomas and Andres Nocioni
Yes, Kenny Thomas is still in the league. It’s hard to believe that Thomas, who the Kings acquired from Philadelphia in the Chris Webber trade, is still playing out the horrible contract that Larry Brown fought so hard for him to get back in 2003.
While the Kings would prefer to move Beno Udrih there’s a zero chance that anyone would be willing to take on that contract any time soon.
The Kings could choose to just let Thomas’ contract expire and use some of their cap space in next summer’s free agent market, but I don’t see any of the significant free agents signing to play in Sacramento.
That being the case, the Kings might be better off moving Thomas to a team looking for a big expiring contract and getting a player who probably wouldn’t sign with them in free agency.
Nocioni still has two more years and a player option for a third year after this coming season. He turns 30 in November and probably isn’t happy about spending his last few productive seasons on a team that’s starting from scratch.
Nocioni could be attractive to a few of the contending teams because his contract decreases in each of the next two seasons.
There’s also the chance that the Kings decide to move Kevin Martin if they can find someone to take him. Martin is a great scorer but he’s too often injured and could stunt the progress of fourth-overall pick, Tyreke Evans.
10. Jermaine O’Neal
I would say that O’Neal has less of a chance at getting traded than any player on this list. The only reason he is on the list is because Pat Riley might not have a choice but to find a team that is willing to take him off his hands.
There’s a real possibility that the Heat will miss the playoffs and scare Dwyane Wade into thinking that he might be better off spending his prime years somewhere else.
Sure the Heat will have a lot of cap space next summer but if Wade doesn’t think that his younger teammates can ever be supporting players on a championship team than he could flee to New York or Chicago when he gets the chance.
If the Heat get off to a bad start then Riley might have to sacrifice some of that cap space by moving O’Neal’s expiring contract for two or three players just to make the playoffs and keep Wade optimistic.
Honorable Mention: Amare Stoudemire
Stoudemire has an option on his contract for next season that he’s sure to exercise. The Suns run the risk of losing Stoudemire for nothing at season’s end or trying to trade him for something beforehand.
That’s at least what most prognosticators are saying. What they fail to realize is that with such a rich free agent class the Suns wouldn’t necessarily be letting him go for nothing.
Stoudemire is scheduled to make just a tad under $18 million next season. Freeing up that much money from their cap would enable them to make a legitimate run at either a top-tier free agent or two guys from the next tier.
If Stoudemire decides to stay then the Suns could be the biggest players in free agency in 2011 when both Stoudemire and Jason Richardson’s contracts expire.
I don’t really think that Stoudemire will get traded but you’ll probably see his name on similar lists. I just wanted to explain why I didn’t include before someone brings his name up.