Source: YardBarker.com
For basketball geeks the summer can be almost as exciting as the regular season. This particular summer generated more buzz than usual due to the amount of free agents and the amount of teams with large amounts of cap space with which to make changes.
While the Miami Heat can boast about snagging the top three available free agents, we shouldn’t forget they also got themselves another from the top-15 in Mike Miller, and another from the top-30 in Udonis Haslem.
It would be hard to think that anybody could ever top the summer Miami has had. What are the chances that a team not only has the available cap space with which to sign three top free agents but that they could also convince the three to take less than the max so the team could add two more quality players?
However there’s a downside to the Heat having committed all of their cap space to five players.
That’s because what we saw this summer could be the first of an annual summer tradition of Pat Riley being forced to restock his supporting cast with nothing to offer but minimum-salaried contracts, trendy night clubs, Cuban food, the absence of a state income tax, and good weather.
As I write this the Heat have 15 players under contract for next season. However, only LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony, Dexter Pittman, Mike Miller, and Udonis Haslem have contracts that extend beyond the upcoming season.
Rich people problems, right? But this is where things get sticky. The rest of the Heat roster is comprised of players with either non-guaranteed deals, one-year veteran minimum deals, or one-year veteran minimum deals with player options for an additional minimum contract for the following season.
Don’t believe me?
- Zydrunas Ilgauskas (1-year deal + player option for 2nd year)
- Jamaal Magloire (1-year deal)
- Juwan Howard (1-year deal)
- James Jones (1-year deal + player option for 2nd year)
- Eddie House (1-year deal + player option for 2nd year)
- Carlos Arroyo (1-year deal)
- Shavlik Randolph (non-guaranteed deal)
- Kenny Hasbrouck (non-guaranteed deal)
- Patrick Beverley (non-guaranteed deal)
- Mario Chalmers (final year of rookie contract)
That’s not the greatest bench in the history of sports but it certainly isn’t the worst either. If you believe the Sun Sentinel‘s Ira Winderman, the Heat actually have too much talent.
But with the league’s current collective bargaining agreement set to expire at the conclusion of this coming season, there’s a chance that this might be the last summer that the Heat can add anyone of substance to their roster.
Two items that the owners have been rumored to try to do away with in the next CBA are the soft cap and the mid-level exception—a provision which allows teams over the salary cap to spend the league’s average salary on one or more players.
Since the Heat were under the salary cap they didn’t have an MLE with which to work with this summer. Instead they got their three superstars to sacrifice a little bit of money so that they could give Miller a five-year deal worth $30 million and Haslem a five-year deal worth $20 million.
I can understand why Miller was willing to turn down more lucrative offers for a chance to win a ring in Miami. He spent the past three seasons playing for a Memphis Grizzlies team that went 22-60, a Minnesota Timberwolves team that went 24-58, and a Washington Wizards team that went 26-56.
But I’m a little curious about what Haslem was thinking. I know that Haslem is from Miami and he didn’t want to leave home. I get that the Heat are the only NBA team he’s ever played a meaningful game for. But he turned down full mid-level offers from both the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks—costing himself about $14 million over the length of the five-year deal.
Haslem turned 30 in June so in all likelihood this is the last multi-year contract he’ll sign. He’s made a little bit more than $30 million through his first seven seasons in the league. I don’t disagree that Haslem should be lauded for being loyal to the franchise that rescued him when he was playing in France. I am in no way doubting the way the Heat has treated Haslem. Heck, just two months ago the team threw a surprise birthday party for him.
What I’m questioning is how loyal he expects the Heat to be from this moment forward. That’s because there isn’t a player on the Heat roster more dispensable or likely to get traded when you take salary and production into account than Haslem.
What happens if the next CBA does away with the MLE? Even if the owners get rid of the MLE, I doubt they get rid of the provision in the current CBA which maintains that the total salaries of players being traded between teams over the cap must be within 115% of each other plus $100,000.
What if the following three things happen?: 1) This Heat team as currently constructed produces less-than-expected results 2) The next CBA does away with the MLE 3) Teams are still required to match up salaries in order to make trades.
Let’s say the Heat finish with a 55-27 record but lose to the Celtics or Magic in the conference semis. How can they expect to get better without cap space or the MLE?
There are three ways teams can acquire players—through the draft, free agency, and via trade. We can pretty much rule out the draft since almost every pick the Heat has over the next 3-5 seasons was either traded away in sign-and-trade deals for James and Bosh or will probably be a late first or second-round pick.
Sure the Heat will still be able to lure free agents with minimum contract offers but it they can’t count on it every summer. Can they really expect to fill out a quality bench every year for the next five or six years with a combination of ring-chasing veterans who get bought out in March, second-round picks, and undrafted free agents?
There are at least 10 players on the Heat’s current roster who can choose to become free agents next summer. What if the season is deemed a failure and there are stories about locker room dissension or questions about whether Erik Spoelstra—who has yet to win a playoff series as a head coach—has what it takes to lead this team to a title.
If that’s the case I can’t imagine they can duplicate the success they had in attracting free agents these last two months. And that would leaves trades as the most logical means by which the Heat can expect to improve.
Forget about LeBron and Wade since neither of them are going anywhere. And Bosh only gets traded if the Heat are a complete disaster (and even that doesn’t happen until 2013 at the earliest).
With three players making near max dollars and eight or nine players getting minimum contracts, Haslem and Miller are the only players on the roster with contracts that can easily be traded. At least that was the case until Miami gave Joel Anthony a five-year, $18 million contract.
Suddenly, Anthony’s deal makes a lot more sense. Consider that he’ll be making $3.3 million next season while Arroyo, Magloire, Howard, and Chalmers will be making $3.4 million combined.
Since the Heat had Anthony’s Bird Rights they were able to go over the salary cap to sign him. It seems as if Riley knew he needed a greater-than-minimum salary for a possible future trade. Otherwise, with nine or 10 players making less than $2 million, the only way Riley could have traded for anyone of substance was by exchanging four or five minimum players for one. That’s an unlikely scenario considering Riley would have to find three or four players to replace those he traded away with nothing but minimum contracts to offer.
It’s no secret that the biggest question marks facing the Heat right now are at point guard, center, and with their bench. Based on low expectations and very little money to offer, Riley did an incredible job. But a closer examination reveals a supporting cast that’s mostly comprised of one-dimensional players like Anthony and House and others whose best days are clearly behind them like Howard, Jones, Ilgauskas, and Magloire.
I joked on twitter that the Heat telling people they had All-Star centers Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jamaal Magloire, and Juwan Howard was akin to me telling people, “I went to Harvard,” and then adding, “for lunch.”
Mario Chalmers has had his moments through his first two seasons but suddenly he’s like one of those rich kids on MTV who gets a Bentley on his 16th birthday. And Arroyo? It was only two seasons ago when Arroyo couldn’t get a contract stateside and had to go to Israel to get a job.
Ilgauskas just turned 35-years-old and is coming off a season in which he logged the fewest minutes and points per game of his 12-year career. By comparison, Howard is 37-years-old and coming off a season in which he averaged 22 minutes per game—almost as many minutes as he averaged in the previous three seasons combined.
So while Anthony’s contract can be used to acquire a player the likes of Jeff Foster, the only way the Heat can acquire a top-tier, second-tier, or even third-tier point guard or center without the mid-level exception is by moving Miller or Haslem.
Miller’s made close to $60 million in his career so nobody can blame him for taking a pay cut for the chance to finally play with a contender. But if Haslem gets traded after sacrificing $14 million then he will have made one of the costliest blunders in free agency history and there’s a much greater chance of Haslem being traded than Miller.
It’s much easier to find a 6-8 power forward on the waiver wire or in the D-League who can who average 6 points and 7 rebounds than a shooter like Miller who has made 46.4% of the shots he’s taken in his career—40% on 3-pointers (including an eye-popping 48% last season).
There’s one other big issue involving the Heat and trades that needs to be mentioned. Teams aren’t exactly lining up to make trades that make contenders better. There isn’t a GM chomping at the bit to trade for Mario Chalmers and the right to pay Joel Anthony for four years.
Since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol in February of 2008, they’ve made only one trade that wasn’t just the selling of draft picks or an attempt to reduce their luxury tax bill.
That was when they traded Vladimir Radmanovic for Adam Morrison and Shannon Brown—a move the Bobcats made to save money by getting out of the final year and a half of Morrison’s contract.
The Celtics haven’t been any more active. Since they acquired Kevin Garnett on July 31, 2007, they’ve made three trades. Two were moves that were made to create roster space when they sent Sam Cassell and Patrick O’Bryant and cash in separate deals for conditional picks. The third was the trade that sent Eddie House, Bill Walker, J.R. Giddens, and a conditional second-round pick to the Knicks for Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry.
You can make the case that the only reason the Knicks traded Robinson to Boston was because he asked the Knicks for a trade. Since the Knicks weren’t going to re-sign the impending free agent they did him a favor by sending him to a playoff team so he could showcase himself on a larger stage.
I understand that championship contenders don’t really have to make trades. However, it was no secret the Lakers were trying to move Sasha Vujacic at the deadline last year and teams weren’t exactly begging to help the defending champs out.
So while Winderman likes to speculate as to what it would take for the Heat to acquire every player rumored to be on the trading block, he must remember that it takes two to tango.
For the Heat to pull off a trade they must provide something that another team actually wants in return. And since they don’t have a future draft pick worth acquiring, they need to entice teams with either a somewhat sizable expiring contract or with talent—two things the Heat either don’t have (the sizable expiring contract) or aren’t quite in a hurry to trade (talent).
There is one other school of thought. If the NBA’s next CBA does away with the luxury tax and the NBA institutes a hard cap then there are a few different scenarios that could either help or hurt the Heat.
Last month, Sam Amick of Fanhouse wondered what would happen to the Heat if the owners insisted on a hard cap.
He writes:
"With the league’s collective bargaining agreement set to expire after next season, the owners are poised to go the way of the NHL and insist on a hard salary cap in the next deal that could be in the neighborhood of $45 million. If they are successful in that attempt — likely after a lockout like the one endured by the NHL in 2004-05 — the Heat and a number of other teams could be forced to release key players if their salaries surpassed the cap."
No doubt that’s a scary scenario for any large market or contending team. According to Dave McMenamin of ESPN Los Angeles, “The Lakers have approximately $95.7 million committed in roster salary next season.”
On the flip side, a hard cap could also work to the Heat’s advantage. If every team is at or near the cap limit and all are offering the same amount of money to the same free agents, the Heat can always tout the absence of a state income tax in Florida as well as a chance to win a championship as a deciding factor.
Any way you slice it, all eyes will be on the Miami Heat next season. Rarely have The Basketball Gods been poked and prodded like they have been by Pat Riley and his triumvirate of stars. I can’t imagine many will be watching the Heat without a rooting interest.
If Heat fans could best describe this offseason as crazy then just wait until next summer. A looming work stoppage and another premature playoff exit for LeBron—especially one with controversy—could make this summer look tame by comparison.
Andrew Ungvari is a co-lead blogger for SirCharlesInCharge. Follow him on twitter.