Just a few days ago we learned the New Orleans Hornets “won” the right to draft #1 overall in the upcoming 2012 NBA draft. As our Chris Walder reported, the Hornets are expected to draft Anthony Davis out of Kentucky. There has been plenty of hype surrounding the 6’10 big man. However, I don’t think he is the type of game changer that everyone says he is.
Davis is undoubtedly talented. Yet his offensive skills leave a “more to be desired” feeling. Sure Davis can learn over time, but is he more of a Marcus Camby or a Dwight Howard? First, there is nothing wrong with being Marcus Camby. He’s had a long career in the NBA and has been renowned for his defense. However when you’re picking #1 overall, you might be looking for something a bit more.
The good thing Davis has going for him is the switch to being listed as a power forward. 6’10 and only weighing in at 220 pounds. Even with the weight programs the Hornets will have him on its unrealistic to expect him to put on 40 pounds. He will translate better as a finesse power forward.
The story of Davis’ growth spurt in high school has been highly covered. Playing guard until his senior year when he sprouted up 7 inches. His skill set is that of a 2 guard. Lean, finesse, and at the moment, just a decent low post repertoire. Those sound like Pau Gasol or Luis Scola type of attributes, not Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum.
He also doesn’t have the mid-range jump shooting ability Gasol or Scola have. And don’t tell me it can be learned over time. That’s plenty easier said than done. You can pick any player in the world and say all they need to do is work on their jumper. Many work as hard as possible but fewer see results.
His rebounding skills in college proved more than admirable. And while rebounding usually translates from college to the NBA it’s not like Davis was getting boxed out by Kevin Love when he played other SEC schools. With the 220 pound frame it’s obvious he’s going to need to beef up. Smaller more muscular players like David West will have their way with him. Being more athletic doesn’t always work as far as rebounding goes. It’s more of a “want to” and bulk. In the NBA size does matter. Not just your height but your weight and general strength.
His defense is undeniable. Blocking and deterring shots at will in 1 year at Kentucky. This should definitely translate in the NBA. Especially with the move to power forward. Not being battered and bruised by much stronger players will benefit his defense. Davis’ ability to play off-ball defense will make an immediate impact.
New Orleans isn’t exactly loaded with defensive talent, well any talent for that matter. So while their guards are getting beat to the basket Davis will be able to come over from the weak side and challenge shots. If he was playing center he would likely be getting pushed around a bit more, making it harder for him to recover quick enough to help.
He will also have the ability to play power forwards who play away from the basket. Growing into his body late works to his advantage here. He has the foot work of a guard. Davis will have no problem defending on the perimeter or an opposing player trying to drive on him. These are areas where Davis will succeed often and early.
The struggle will be with his offense. The same benefit of having that growth spurt late in life is also his biggest detriment. Davis only has 2 years of “big man” play under his belt. Sure you can make the argument that his ceiling is high, but so was Michael Olowokandi’s. Big men miss more often than hit. It’s because projecting a big man’s growth is so hard. The only way to do so is by trying to compare Davis to another.
The obvious comparison is Marcus Camby. Even though Kentucky head coach John Calipari doesn’t think so. “Anthony is a tremendous shot blocker with great size and length. He can make 3-pointers, dribble the ball and he can get up and down the court faster than some of our guards because of his long, looping strides. He’s a different player than Marcus Camby, but he’s physically ahead of where Marcus was to start his freshman season.”
Sure, he is physically farther ahead of Camby. But let’s not forget about how dominate a defensive force Camby was in college. Same attributes. Good feet, shot blocker, lean, and a high ceiling. If Camby didn’t have a projected high ceiling he wouldn’t have been the 2nd overall pick in the 1996 draft. Right now nobody claims Camby was a franchise changer.
So tell me what makes Davis different from Camby? Camby actually has 1 inch on Davis and about 15 pounds. So just because Davis used to be a guard that means he will translate better as a big man? There is no proof to that kind of notion. In any walk of life an employer would not hire you as a NASA engineer if you have been doing one thing your how life than working as an engineer for 2.
Poor analogy I know. But NASA would like to hire an engineer with a longer track record in that line of work. Just because he showed promise in engineering doesn’t project him being a great engineer. So just because Davis has played basketball all his life he hasn’t played the front court for that long. You’re banking on that dreaded potential. And as GM’s across all sports will tell you, potential will get you fired.
I don’t in any shape or form think Davis is going to be a bust. I just think he’s more fitted as JUST a defensive stopper. His ceiling might be super high, one that he will get to and I could be way off. But you can’t honestly say you’ve seen enough things in his offensive game on a consistent basis that makes one think he’s Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan. What you’ve seen so far does make one think of Marcus Camby or Tyson Chandler. And there is nothing wrong with that.
Big men are the hardest to predict. You can go down the line of sure fire big men. Oden, Olowakandi, Bowie, Bradley, Reeves. You just don’t know. At the same time you can’t pass on the potential of getting it right. At worst Davis will be a defensive stopper that would be a great piece to any team.
At best he will revolutionize the power forward position with his athleticism and defense. We just don’t know. But it’s very easy in June to say he is going to be a franchise changer. It’s even harder to keep expectations at a reasonable level. Hornets fans should be thrilled they are getting the uni-browed big man. They also shouldn’t expect a 50 win season anytime soon.
We really won’t know about Davis for 5 years. Big men take the longest to develop and Davis will take longer than most. So while I might be judging his “franchise changing” ability, I won’t grade his performance as a big man in the NBA for a few years. Andrew Bynum took 6 years to get where he is. And nobody expected him to be this good.
So what am I really trying to say? Well, the NBA has the draft lottery. And that’s all it is. A lottery. Only time will tell if New Orleans hit the mega-millions or just the big 4.
Joseph Nardone is a Writer/Blogger for Sir Charles In Charge. He is also a loyalist apologist for Rajon Rondo. You can follow him on the twitter machine @JosephNardone