Feb 14, 2013; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Miami Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra reacts to action against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at the Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
On paper, this really is a no brainer. On paper, the Miami Heat should win. On paper, the Heat athleticism should be able to outdo the San Antonio Spurs grit.
Too bad the NBA Finals isn’t played on paper.
There are three clear keys to victory for each team. The team that plays closer to a T on reaching each of things will find themselves in position to win each night.
GET OUTTA THE PAINT
Both the Spurs and Heat thrive on drive and kicks to jumpstart their offense. Tony Parker and LeBron James fuel those primary roles for each of their teams, respectively.
The key to success lies in each team’s ability to keep paint penetration to a minimum. The Spurs, one of the League’s most prolific pick and roll offenses, will have its hands full with the Heat’s stifling defense.
The same could be said about the Heat offense and the Spurs defense.
The two bigs – in this case Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan – will have to crowd LeBron before he makes his move into the paint. Once he gets there, there is almost nothing anyone can do to stop him.
THE TRIFECTA
Some teams live and die by the three, though, these teams don’t. A true indication that their offense is flowing can be told by their three-point shooting. They finished second and fifth, respectively, through the regular season from three-point land and have carried that well into the postseason.
In the playoffs, they have fallen back a bit, percentage wise, as expected but are still second and third amongst the playoff teams, only behind Golden State. This season, the Spurs shot only 31 percent from distance against Miami during their two regular season meetings, the Heat shot 41 percent. Then again, it can be argued that those games should be thrown out because neither team was at full strength in either contest.
Whoever ends up winning the three-point shooting battles may end up winning the series as well.
THE OTHERS
There’s no mystery when it comes to the type of production that we’re going to see from the Tony Parker’s and LeBron James’ of the world. However, the deciding factor of this series may be what each team gets, or doesn’t get, from “its others”. The Kawhi Leonard’s, Danny Green’s and Shane Battier’s of the world, per say.
If Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh show up, and look anything like last year’s Finals team, the Spurs are desperately going to need help from their others.
Duncan is averaging 17 and 9 in the playoffs, Parker is going to drop his 20-plus, if one more – or a combination of Spurs – can match Parker or Duncan’s production, they will be in good position.
On the other hand, we’ve seen LeBron go insane and carry this Heat team time and time again. If Wade and/or Bosh fail to show up again, they will need their others, in their case shooters, to help carry the missing production. Enter Battier, Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers.
All in all, this series looks like a dandy. A toe-to-toe matchup that is going to come down to each team trying to impose their wills on one another. Whoever succeeds in doing so will probably be raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy in a couple of weeks.