Blake Griffin is out for an estimated 4-6 weeks due to surgery to remove a staph infection in his right elbow. How will his absence affect the Los Angeles Clippers?
Los Angeles may be the home of Kobe Bryant’s Lakers and Lob City’s Clippers, but the excitement for basketball fans in L.A. has been rather limited so far in the 2014-15 NBA season. Now, after losing Blake Griffin to elbow surgery, what does the future hold for the Los Angeles Clippers?
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The Los Angeles Clippers have already seen elevated interest from the public eye over the last week, since Chris Paul’s criticism of Lauren Holtkamp’s refereeing and technical fouls in their 105-94 loss against the Cleveland Cavaliers. His eventual $25,000 fine for the public criticism of a referee seems to be the end of that fiasco though, but now the loss of All-Star power forward Blake Griffin is yet another problem the Clippers have to deal with.
When Paul went down with injury last year Griffin elevated his play and scoring ability to a level we hadn’t seen from him before. He continued to extend the range of his jumper (taking nearly a third of his shots from 16 feet out, making 37 percent of them) and boosted his rebounding back up to 9.5 per game (an increase of 1.2 from the year before).
As a top five MVP candidate Griffin led his Clippers to a 3rd place finish in the Western Conference. Although this year, the high-flying poster boy and his team have somewhat regressed.
His rebounding has fallen to just 7.5 a game, which is by far the lowest mark of his career and a whole 4.6 less than his rookie year. That is in part due to the ferocious freak that lines up in the frontcourt next to him, DeAndre Jordan, who’s gobbling up a league best 13.5 a game. But for someone who is 6’10” and can jump so high, Griffin really should have more of an impact on the boards. Regardless of his diminished rebounding and lacking presence as an interior defender (averaging just 0.4 blocks per game) though, Griffin has still been a star for the Clippers.
Feb 6, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) shoots and scores a basket as Toronto Raptors forward Amir Johnson (15) tries to block the shot at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Clippers 123-107. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
His passing has become an extremely underrated and valuable part of his game, and he’s been a reliable option to run the half-court offense through if Paul isn’t on the court (Griffin’s contributing a career best 5.1 assists per game this year). Not to mention his scoring output of 22.5 points will be greatly missed by the Clippers during his absence.
Griffin has left a real void behind him, especially as L.A. are only just hanging onto 6th place in the Western Conference as it is. Not to mention Spencer Hawes has some seriously big shoes to fill, as he’s likely going to take his place in the starting line up.
Despite having the third best point differential in the league (+6.2) and excellent ball distribution (ranked 4th in assists with 24.5) the Clippers have been inconsistent for much of the season. Even though Jordan has been there to send shots flying and CP3 has been holding down the perimeter as best he can, their overall defensive struggles have held them back from confirming themselves as an elite team in the West.
Jan 5, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan (center) blocks a shot by Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll as Clippers teammates Spencer Hawes (10) and Jamal Crawford (11) watch at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Surrendering a generous 100.3 points per game and the 21st worst opponent’s field goal percentage (50.4 percent) the Clippers now rank a mere 17th in defensive efficiency (104). Being joint first in offensive efficiency (yes, seriously, they’re as good as the Warriors in this category) won’t get you anywhere unless you can hold your own on defense.
With Hawes likely stepping into the starting five, there’s no doubt that the Clippers’ struggles grow further. He’s a great fit with the team coming off the bench as a catch-and-shoot big man who can stretch the floor, but that’s the only main asset he brings to the table. He’ll reduce their pace (the Clippers’ output per 100 possessions is 11 points lower when Hawks is on the floor compared to when Griffin is) and there’s no way he can create offense like Blake.
In terms of the injury at hand, Griffin will face a review after the All-Star break to check his condition, but a date for his possible return is still uncertain:
To clarify: Griffin is out indefinitely bc of the serious nature of the procedure, but if all goes well the initial projection is 4-6 weeks
— Ramona Shelburne (@ramonashelburne) February 8, 2015
Hearing Clips clinging to hope Blake Griffin could be back in as soon two weeks. I'm told they also know it could well stretch to six weeks
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) February 8, 2015
Whilst a Griffin-less Clippers squad will benefit the playoff push for teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns, it could temporarily take L.A. out of the playoff picture. With just four more wins than Phoenix (8th) they could quite easily slip out of the Western Conference playoff standings all together.
And we know how hard it is for the lower teams to claw their way to 8th place in the West. Just ask the Suns.
Fans may be crossing their fingers 24/7 for Griffin to come back in two weeks, but if they don’t want to extend his recovery time and risk further damage the Clippers, it would be wise to wait for the full expected time of 4-6 weeks. Even though we lack a precise timetable of his return, it’s better for Clippers fans to prepare for the worst rather than getting their hopes up.
L.A. have already lost four straight, and over the next five weeks they’ll face the the Bulls, the Trail Blazers, the Warriors, the Mavericks twice, the Grizzlies twice and the Rockets three times. All those are tough games when Griffin is starting. Without him, they are all potential losses.
Feb 2, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul (3) and Los Angeles Clippers power forward Blake Griffin (32) react during the third quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. The Nets defeated the Clippers 102-100. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Even if they snatch a couple of those games at home, facing off against some of the NBA’s premier offensive teams, and juggernauts like the Grizzlies and Warriors, is going to be extremely tough to say the least.
Considering how difficult these games will be to win, the Clippers could well go 5-10 at best over the next five weeks if Griffin stays out from his surgery.
It’s hard to know how well other teams will perform in the ever changing playoff battle in the West, yet the Clippers could (this is the worst case scenario) drop down to 10th place.
There’s no reliable backup plan for losing an All-NBA talent, and sadly for the L.A. that’s what they’re going to face for the next month if Griffin is out as long as suspected. They won’t go down without a fight, but if this critical juncture of their season goes poorly, the Clippers are going to have their work cut out for them if they want to make the playoffs.