If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late: The Myth of the Toronto Raptors
By Julius Lasin
The Toronto Raptors sit second in the standings, but they aren’t contenders
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Despite dropping five out of their last six games, the Toronto Raptors still find themselves second in the Eastern Conference standings. On the outside, that may seem like a victory for the Raptors, who have struggled with injuries and inconsistency this year. But Toronto has undeniable flaws that should make them extremely uncomfortable about their NBA Title chances.
One of the reasons the Raptors are so appealing is because they have this perception that they are this gritty defensive team that mirrors their leader, Kyle Lowry. However, they are far from a stingy or effective defensive team, as they are 17th in the league in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) with 103.9 and 21st in points allowed per game (100.6).
The reason for the Raptors’ subpar defensive production is their average perimeter defense. The wings and guards for the Raptors not only allow opponents to shoot 34.6 percent from the 3-point line (14th in the NBA), they also allow opponents to break them down and get to the rim, where the Raptors allow 11.7 made field goals per game (13th in the NBA).
Furthermore, the Raptors are soft on the boards, as they are 19th in the league in rebounding rate (49.5) and rebounding differential (-0.8), as well as 25th in rebounds per game (41.8).
Toronto is a promising feel-good story, not a legitimate championship contender
On the offensive end of the floor, the Raptors are better, evidenced by their 107.7 offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions), which is good for fourth in the NBA.
But a granular look at Toronto’s offense shows that success is simply not sustainable, especially in the playoffs. First and foremost, the Raptors lack any real continuity on offense, as they 22nd in the league in assists per game (20.6) 25th in passes per game (281.3) and 20th in points created by assists per game, meaning that they rely too heavily on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan creating something off the dribble.
Their lack of ball movement is not because of poor point guard play—Lowry averages seven assists per game—but because of head coach Dwane Casey’s apparent lack of offensive imagination. Which is obvious when the Raptors are forced to set up shop in the half court, where they seem confused and lackadaisical.
Toronto holds the ball for 20.1 seconds per possession (3rd-longest in the NBA), which is an outcome of most of their players staring at Lowry dribbling for brunt of the possession, and then hoping something good happens at the end.
As a result of their stagnant offensive movement and lack of ingenuity, the Raptors rely heavily on pull-up jump shots. Despite being the worst sixth-worst pull-up jump shooting team in the league (34.8 percent), Toronto is third in pull-up shot points per game, with 20.9.
Pull Up Jump Shot Chart
In addition to their lack of ball movement, the Raptors are also pedestrian from the outside, shooting 34.6 percent from the 3-point line, which is tied for 16th in the NBA. However, when the Raptors do choose to swing the ball, they are an effective 3-point shooting team, as they are fifth in the NBA in catch and shoot 3-point percentage (38.1 percent).
When the playoffs roll around, the Toronto Raptors simply cannot rely on the type of offensive template they’ve been using all season, it’s all far too predictable. It will be up to Lowry, Greivis Vasquez and Casey to work together and to find a balance between setting others up and putting their heads down and scoring.
Nevertheless, the Raptors still have one of the most productive benches in the NBA, an all-star point guard and a team that values possessions (only 12.2 turnovers per game), which means that they’ll make the playoffs and make some noise early.
The only problem is that they still have still have a lack of offensive sophistication and defensive toughness, two things that won’t magically change this late into the season. And at the end of the day, Toronto is a promising feel-good story, not a legitimate championship contender.
*stats courtesy of NBA.com