Karl-Anthony Towns: Rookie Report and Predictions
By Matt Ziegler
With the first pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves selected Karl-Anthony Towns. Here’s what you can expect from him in Year 1
For the first time in the history of the NBA, the Minnesota Timberwolves will have three consecutive No. 1 overall picks on the same roster. Although Anthony Bennett has played nothing like a top overall pick, or even a first-round pick for that matter, the future is bright for the other two. Andrew Wiggins is fresh off winning the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award, and Karl-Anthony Towns could be poised to bring more of the same hardware to the Land of Lakes.
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We all saw how dominant Towns was in college, but how, and how quickly, will his skills translate to the NBA?
More specifically, what can we expect out of him in Year 1?
For the past five years, Minnesota has had Nikola Pekovic in line to start at center. This year, the 29-year-old Montenegrin will come off the bench, as Towns is a lock to start. Pekovic will see action, and is a capable starter, something that will prove useful as Towns navigates his first full season. He won’t lose his starting spot, but expect Pekovic to get some spot starts to spell Karl-Anthony Towns over the course of the year (something Pekovic too has needed over his career, evidenced by him playing in only 65.7% of games while on the roster).
Last year, the up-and-coming Gorgui Dieng actually started the most games at center, and he could see meaningful minutes again this year. His per game averages were 9.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.7 blocks. Those numbers are respectable, and if Dieng can improve his defensive awareness, he could very well steal Pekovic’s spot in the rotation.
Looking ahead to predicting Karl-Anthony Towns’ numbers for his rookie season, I personally expect him to contend for Rookie of the Year behind a per game stat line nearing 14 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, 1.5 steals, and two blocks. Lofty numbers, and I expect his presence to be even larger once you factor in the defensive upgrade this will be to a team that last season ranked dead last in defensive efficiency. His rotations will keep opposing guards from attacking the lane, something everyone could do with relative ease against a Rubio/Pekovic pairing.
Look for Karl-Anthony Towns to be the rim protector Minnesota has been lacking since the days of young Kevin Garnett. He will be able to hold his own against most of the centers he faces from a size standpoint, and will be quick enough for nearly all of them. On pick-and-roll plays, a staple of any NBA offense, Towns can disrupt the passing lane and get out on guards in time to contest shots from deep. This end of the floor will display his largest impact, but he is an upgrade offensively as well.
I personally expect him to contend for Rookie of the Year behind a per game stat line nearing 14 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, 1.5 steals, and two blocks.
You are not going to see any beautiful post moves from Towns like you will with Jahlil Okafor in Philadelphia. KAT will be more likely to get into position in the post, receive an entry pass, and attempt to bully his way in. He has a nifty little hook shot that will be his go-to move. In addition to the hook shot and bully ball, I see Towns scoring on offensive rebounds and some mid-range jumpers.
Much was made about him being able to knock down an NBA three, but I would not anticipate seeing many of those shots in year 1. It will no doubt be something he tries to develop over time, but Flip Saunders should not have plays designed to get Towns a look from deep.
Summer league saw Towns average a pedestrian (for summer league) 12.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. While not the numbers you’d hope to see from your No. 1 overall pick, the time in Vegas gave Towns, as well as fellow rookie Tyus Jones and sophomore Zach LaVine, more time to get acclimated to playing alongside the rest of Minnesota’s youth movement.
This Minnesota team joins the Bucks and Magic as one of the most athletic and hopeful franchises in the league. Towns is well aware, telling NJ Advanced Media:
"“We’re going to be really good, we have a lot of talent. We’re going to be super athletic. We’re going to be able to do a lot of different things on the court that a lot of other teams can’t.”"
As the video below displays, Karl-Anthony Towns is exactly right – not many teams can fly this high. Whether or not that equates to more wins remains to be seen.