NBA Rookie Report and Predictions: Jahlil Okafor

With the third pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers selected Jahlil Okafor. Here’s what you can expect from him in year 1

When Jahlil Okafor committed to Duke during his final season with Whitney Young High School (Chicago, IL), the consensus opinion was that he would be the top overall selection in the 2015 NBA Draft. Spending a year in college was going to be strictly a formality, as it is for many top recruits.

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The Philadelphia 76ers were fresh off the 2014 NBA Draft, which saw them take a big man in the lottery for the 2nd consecutive year (Joel Embiid, after Nerlens Noel the previous year). The Sixers were aware of Embiid’s injury and expected to have another year to go in the tanking process. At this point for Philadelphia and Jahlil Okafor, it seemed very unlikely for them to meet up in the 2015 NBA Draft.

Fast Forward 11 months; Philadelphia sadly learns that Joel Embiid will miss another full season. Karl-Anthony Towns has a late surge up the draft boards, while everyone has had a full year to find the holes in Jahlil Okafor’s game. The 76ers are of course expected to get a high draft pick, end up with the 3rd overall, and watch Towns and D’Angelo Russell go 1, 2. The Philadelphia/Jahlil Okafor relationship began with the next pick.

At Duke, Jahlil Okafor was the offensive beast he was hyped to be. The rest of the 2015 draft class clearly respects those advanced post moves, as they voted him most likely to win Rookie of the Year and have the best long-term career.

So what exactly can we expect out of Jahlil Okafor in his rookie campaign?

As mentioned above, the Embiid injury changed the outlook for this season in Philadelphia. With the Kansas-product sidelined, Jahlil Okafor will unquestionably be the starting center. Nerlens Noel will be the starting big man next to him, and their skill sets do compliment each other fairly well. Noel had a very strong first year in 2014-15, and he looks poised to be on quite a few “All-Defense” teams in the future. This type of support on defense is going to help Jahlil Okafor through his transition to the NBA.

We all know that Philadelphia is in the middle of an unprecedented tanking process. Combine that with injuries and an import waiting to come over in Dario Saric, and we see a team with almost no depth. The lack of depth and limited outside shooting on this unit is going to allow opponents to routinely double team Jahlil Okafor. Last season, at Duke, Okafor was able to beat the double team by passing over opponents to wings rotating around the arc. It will be much more difficult to beat the doubles this year, playing in a frequently stagnant offense.

You do have to respect Jahlil Okafor’s post game. The comparison to Al Jefferson is sound, but I think Brook Lopez could be more accurate. He’ll be a solid option from day one, and will get plenty of looks in this offense. I believe it’s fair to expect a per game statline of 16 points, 8 rebounds, and two assists. Those numbers would warrant consideration for Rookie of the Year, but I think Jahlil Okafor will not finish in even the top-3 by the end of the year.

I believe two things will prevent Okafor from being a rookie of the year contender: defense and conditioning

Two things will prevent Jahlil Okafor from being a top Rookie of the Year candidate. First, he is going to be a liability on defense all season. Noel will be able to support admirably, but the aforementioned depth issue will restrict how much time they share the floor. This leads into the other reason Jahlil Okafor will need a few years to reach his potential: his conditioning is going to prove to be a problem.

I expect him to average only 25-30 minutes a game, and more importantly think he will miss some games. I find it reasonable for him to miss 15-25 games over the course of the season from normal wear-and-tear. Also, the Sixers have no reason to push anyone on their young roster this year.

Of course, changes could still happen with the roster, with the madman/genius Sam Hinkie at the wheel. Much like the 76ers in Hinkie’s master plan, Jahlil Okafor will be one to two years away from making serious noise in the Eastern Conference.

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