NBA Rookie Report and Predictions: Mario Hezonja

With the 5th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic selected Mario Hezonja. Here’s what you can expect from his rookie year

The Orlando Magic have been rebuilding since Dwight Howard left the team in the summer of 2012. Those three seasons have seen the Magic add a number of intriguing pieces through the draft, bring in some veteran shooting and continue to develop their own prospects. Which can all culminate in the Magic being a playoff contender sooner rather than later.

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However, for all Orlando has done in the past three years, you would have expected to see more improvement. They have not made any obviously poor decisions, both drafting well and choosing the correct times to spend on extensions or in free agency. Fans are no doubt getting tired of being below mediocre – they have finished with 20, 23, and 25 wins, respectively, in the past three seasons.

Orlando has added exciting pieces in each year of the draft. In 2013, Victor Oladipo was taken 2nd overall, and has shown the athleticism and potential to make that look like a correct pick. Then in 2014, the team drafted Aaron Gordon 4th overall and traded up for No. 10 pick Elfrid Payton. Gordon missed a large chunk of his rookie campaign and Payton still needs to work on his outside shot, but both players have a ton of potential. The missing aspects of their games are correctable.

Then, in this year’s draft, the Magic selected Mario Hezonja, the 20-year-old Croatian. Hezonja had been a highly-regarded prospect for a few years, but did not play much in the Spanish League, averaging only 12.3 minutes per game across 38 career games played. His time in Spain saw him start a total of three games. So why did he get drafted so high and what will he do right away?

First off, it’s worth mentioning that European teams often penalize players who are planning to leave for the NBA by cutting their minutes. So while Hezonja was not a starter for Barcelona, he most likely should have been. Going off his size alone, you can see someone built to be a versatile wing. Mario Hezonja measures in at 6’8” with a 6’10” wingspan and weighs around 210 pounds. While not as impressive as Stanley Johnson, he does have an NBA-ready body.

Leading up to the draft, Mario Hezonja was frequently compared to Kobe Bryant. Sure, Mario can hit the three and play above the rim, but the comparison was rooted in attitude. Like Kobe, Hezonja is confident he is the best player on the court at all times, and he will take command accordingly. This type of trait is what can separate a star from a superstar in the NBA. However, J.R. Smith and Nick Young are both pretty confident too, so there is a basketball IQ level Hezonja will need to reach in order to stay under control.

Staying under control might be the biggest obstacle in Hezonja’s transition. A player as young and talented can fall into some frustration in the NBA. How he handles poor shooting nights will be very telling in evaluating his future. One knock on him in Spain was that he did not handle his frustration as well as he should have. I believe this is overstated – when your leaders cannot maintain composure, its a problem, but Hezonja will not need to be a leader at this stage in his career.

From a pure skills standpoint, Mario Hezonja was one of the more balanced prospects in the draft. He will begin his career playing the 2 and the 3 interchangeably, which fits well with what could be a positionless 2-through-4 in Orlando. Later in his career, he could possibly play some small-ball 4, but that will not happen this season. His best asset right-off-the-bat will be his athleticism, showcased in the clip from Summer League below.

Mario Hezonja has outstanding range from deep and shows off his aggression when driving into the lane. This is a perfect mix of preferences for today’s NBA, and should mesh well with the pieces Orlando already has in place. Defensively, this is not a good team, finishing 25th in defensive rating last year. Hezonja will be a decent defender right away, and could become a very good defender by his prime. I do not see him ever making any “All-Defense” teams, but he should not be a liability on that end of the floor either.

Since Orlando is a young team still finding its identity, we might see Mario Hezonja a decent amount this year. Some of those minutes may come in garbage time, but nonetheless I expect him to finish the year with a per game statline of 10 points, three rebounds, two assists, and one steal.

I believe Mario Hezonja, not Kristaps Porzingis, will be the best European player to come out of this draft class

Mario Hezonja might be nearly as raw as Kristaps Porzingis will be in New York, but I believe Hezonja will be the best European to come out of this draft class. I think his style and skillset are a better match for the league trends, and he landed on a team with more pieces in place for the future.

Only time will tell which current Laker “Super Mario” more closely resembles: Kobe Bryant or Nick Young. Either way, he’s sure to be exciting.

Next: Dwight Howard will likely test free agency again next summer

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