NBA Playoffs: Coldiron’s 5-Star Postseason Success Formula

3. Injuries

This is where factors beyond teams control start to play a role. Injured players have played a major role in determining every NBA Champion. This is what killed OKC and kept them out of the 2015 playoffs entirely.

Catching a superior team undermanned by injury has propelled a couple of teams to titles. The 2003 Spurs were a heck of a team, but arguably the weakest of their five title winning teams. In the playoffs, the best team was likely the Sacramento Kings, but Chris Webber‘s knee cost them the series against Minnesota, who the Spurs then promptly dismantled and went on to the Finals.

Injury may have cost the 2010 Celtics the title when they had to play the Finals without their starting center Kendrick Perkins (this sounds absurd now, but at the time it was true).

In 2015, the Golden State Warriors benefited from injuries to the Clippers, Rockets and, most importantly, the grossly undermanned Cavaliers in the Finals.

The good news for the lower ranked teams is that this is one factor where they don’t start out at an inherent disadvantage, and thus will not be immediately eliminated by this factor.

Incredibly, none of our remaining teams enters the Playoffs with any significant injuries, so we don’t eliminate anyone automatically here.

But before you get too comfortable- history also tells us that of the 8 teams that will advance to the second round at least one or two of them will sustain injuries during round one that will cripple them or severely handicap them in round two and beyond.

Keep your eye on this factor, because it ALWAYS screws someone.

Next: Factor 4