NBA Playoffs: Coldiron’s 5-Star Postseason Success Formula

4. Coaching

While a lower listed factor, in terms of the formula, coaching can turn out to be the difference if all other factors are equal.

Coaching advantage is one of my favorite factors. We need go back just three years to see this in action when Gregg Popovich (the greatest coach on earth) had one of the only space-brained moments of his life when he pulled Tim Duncan out of the game in Game 6 because he feared Duncan having to cover Chris Bosh out at the three-point line.

Wouldn’t ya know it, without Duncan in the game (who is only one of the greatest rebounders ever), Bosh got the key rebound of the game that saved the Heat’s season. With five seconds left, LeBron James horribly bricked a three-point shot so badly that the strange rebound caromed perfectly to Bosh, who found Ray Allen, who made one of the most clutch shots in history, but only after an incredible amount of luck set it up. (this series of events also qualifies for Factor 5)

Back to the coaching side, I site the Warriors vs. Mavericks series mentioned in factor 1. Golden State was playing small ball, while the Mavericks started Erick Dampier at center for the first four games. With momentum going against him but owning the clearly superior team, Avery Johnson adjusted by removing Dampier for game 5.

I wrote at the time and it turned out to be true that the series ended when he made that decision, which leads to another aspect of this- THE FIRST COACH TO BLINK LOSES. Johnson blinked first and lost the series. This was indicative of a bigger problem, which was that Don Nelson coached Johnson out of his shorts. That, combined with Baron Davis’ superhuman performance, allowed the 8th-seeded Warriors to knock of the regular-season champion Mavericks.

On the other hand, just last year Kevin McHale outcoached Doc Rivers in a seven game series. (think about that one for a minute). Incredibly this, combined with peak James Harden (factor 1) led to the Rockets upsetting the Clippers.

In the case of 2016, I’m going to have to use this factor to eliminate the Thunder and Cavs. While Billy Donovan and Ty Lue are fine coaches, I believe that compared to their competition, they just don’t weigh up and make the cut. In a seven game series, coaching against Pop or Kerr, their deficiencies will be put on display and exploited for all the world to see, resulting in the collective demise’ of their teams.

Pop and Kerr are simply operating on a higher level than their competition. This gives the Warriors and Spurs a massive advantage over everyone else.

Next: Factor 5