Race for Eighth: The West and the Last Playoff Spot

The standings at the top of NBA probably won’t change much, but here are some scenarios for the last playoff spot in the West.

Take a look at the NBA standings. The names at the top – Cleveland, Golden State, San Antonio – are all pretty familiar. These names, aside from the Spurs and Clippers’ race for second, probably won’t change much.

But at the bottom of the playoff picture in the West, the race becomes much more interesting.

There are several teams clustered around the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference right now, and the race for the final position in the postseason could play out in several different ways. Here’s a brief overview of some likely scenarios.

Right now, the Portland Trail Blazers (12-14) hold the eighth playoff spot in the West, followed by the Sacramento Kings (9-15), the Los Angeles Lakers (10-17) and the Denver Nuggets (9-16). The New Orleans Pelicans still have at least some semblance of a chance, but at 8-17 face a steep climb to even come close.

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Out of these teams, the Portland Trail Blazers are clearly the most talented. Damian Lillard is better than every player on any one of the rosters not named Anthony Davis, and the Blazers have previous playoff experience to lean on.

Portland’s losing record right now is a huge surprise, an unwelcome one to the team’s players, and conventional wisdom would suggest that this team will finish the year with a higher winning percentage than they have now.

From that perspective, this scenario may seem closed. Portland holds a 2.5-game lead over the Lakers right now, and should clearly be the better team going forward. Expecting Denver or Sacramento to jump the Trail Blazers seems equally unlikely.

The discussion becomes much more interesting when one adds the Memphis Grizzlies to the mix. The Grizz are 17-8, and in fifth place right now in the West. However, they’re without their point guard Mike Conley, an absence that has sparked several death sentences from sports media. Memphis has played well so far in his absence – they just crushed the Warriors – but they will start slipping soon and could easily plummet out of the playoff race.

If that happens, it could create an entirely new dynamic. Teams like the Lakers or Kings could gain new life, although even a hobbled Memphis team should still be competitive with them. Really, the most interesting team in this scenario might be the New Orleans Pelicans.

Crippled by an 0-8 start (and struggling to play well since), it’s hard to see the Pelicans make much headway. However, with a player like Anthony Davis, it’s still a little early to count them out.

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The most likely outcome is that these eight teams finish in the playoffs. The Grizzlies should be able to at least stay in the top eight, and there’s a much gulf after Portland. However, If one of the 9-11 teams gets hot at the right time, and the Grizzlies finally fall off a cliff without Conley, there are plenty of potential outcomes in the West.