Washington Wizards: Otto Porter Is Rapidly Improving

Otto Porter has improved rapidly for the Washington Wizards, in advance of his upcoming free agency

Before the 2016-17 NBA season even began, many fans and analysts had already written off Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter as a bust. After all, he was the third pick in the 2013 NBA draft, and was coming off a career high 11.6 PPG season.

However, Porter showed flashes towards the end of the 2015-16 season that very few people paid attention to. This season, Porter has improved rapidly and is playing himself towards a very lucrative contract this offseason, as he prepares to hit restricted free agency.

Porter’s jump from 11.6 PPG to 14.3 PPG and 5.2 RPG to 6.8 RPG is very significant, and throw in the fact that he’s shooting 44 percent on three’s (up from 36.7% last season), you’ve got a serious candidate for the NBA’s Most Improved Player of the Year.

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Also, Porter’s advanced stats are even more impressive and jump off any page you read them on.

According to Basketball Reference, Porter has a 63.1 Effective Field Goal percentage, a 64.9 True Shooting percentage (!!), a 3.7 BPM, and a 18.1 PER. Those are all career highs and significant improvements from last season. Just for perspective, last season Porter had: 54.1 eFG%, 56.4 TS%, 1.8 BPM, and a 14.5 PER.

Finally, Porter has the 7th highest Real Plus-Minus for small forwards in the NBA, according to ESPN. Porter’s advanced numbers paint the picture that Porter is a well above average starter in the NBA, who has the potential to perform even better if given more opportunities.

Porter has shown more this season than Harrison Barnes did the year before he signed his max contract with the Dallas Mavericks, and look what Barnes is doing now (20.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG for reference).

I’m not claiming that Porter will make the jump to being a 20 PPG scorer next season, because he may never get to that level. However, if Porter were to be lured away from the Wizards in the offseason and end up on a team that lacks playmaking and scoring, Porter will see a significant increase in opportunities (he currently has a 15.5 USG%, down from last season), which will in turn lead to more production.

Porter’s upcoming payday

Now, this season could just be the result of it being a contract year for Porter. We’ve seen it happen countless times: a young player knows there is money to be made in the offseason and plays above his level for a season in order to secure said (max) money, only to revert to his actual level of production.

However, Porter’s level of play not only seems sustainable this season, there is even more room for improvement for Porter, especially if he goes to a team that will count on him to be the main focal point of an offense.

The question is: does Porter deserve the max contract? Many will point to his lack of serious, sustained production to say he doesn’t, but when you compare what he has done in his seasons leading to his free agency to what Harrison Barnes did before he got his max contract, it’s clear Porter is deserving of such a contract.

Yes, Barnes was on a team with three all-stars around him, but he only averaged 11.7 PPG and 5 RPG the year before he received the max contract from the Mavericks.

Porter is the third option on this Washington Wizards team, and is only using a 15.5 USG% to average 15 PPG along with 7RPG on 54.8 percent shooting from the floor (and 44% from downtown). If Porter had the same USG% as Barnes does this season (26.7%), it’s safe to say Porter could average close to 20 PPG.

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Therefore, teams with cap space and a void at SF (and a small-ball PF) should take a chance on Porter and give him a max contract. His advanced numbers jump off the page, he has improved every season, is a very efficient scorer, a good rebounder for his position, and will only turn 24 years old this June. There should be multiple teams lining up to secure Porter’s play this summer.

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