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The Washington Wizards Are Heating Up

By Thomas Jenkins

Jan 2, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) shoots the ball during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 2, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) shoots the ball during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Washington Wizards have played at a much higher level after a disappointing start, and their playoff chances have risen accordingly

On December 7, 2016, the Washington Wizards sat at 7-13, good (or bad) enough for ninth place in the East.

At 2.5 games behind the Indiana Pacers, Washington was already playing itself out of a playoff spot. Many fans had high expectations for this team – fueled by stars like John Wall and Bradley Beal – and this poor of a start to the season seemed foreboding for the rest of the year.

Today (Jan 3), the Washington Wizards are 16-17, and in a virtual tie with the Pacers for the final playoff spot. The team has rebounded with a strong 9-4 run, suggesting that many may have written them off too early.

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Looking at the team’s statistics up to the December 7 point is startling. To that date (per NBA Stats), the Wizards had an offensive rating of 103.3, a defensive rating of 106.3, and an overall net rating of negative-3.0.

Their net rating ranked 21st in the NBA, and is a good indicator of why the Wizards were then 7-13. The team’s offense ranked around league average, but the defense, sitting in the bottom third of the league, was mostly responsible for the team’s overall struggles.

Since that point, Washington has been much better on both ends of the court. From December 7 to January 3, Washington has an offensive rating of 108.7, and a defensive rating of 104.9. These metrics rank ninth and eighth, respectively, both of which are marked improvements from earlier on. Over this period, the team’s net rating (3.9) ranks ninth in the league, as well.

It is difficult to say whether defensive or offensive gains have been more significant. While the team’s offensive rating (gaining 5.2 points per 100 possessions) has improved more more than its defensive counterpart (2.3 points per 100 possessions), the defense has risen higher in the league standings (15 spots, compared to seven).

Regardless of which gains were most important, though, the team has played more consistently well in multiple areas.

Washington’s best player (Wall) has also been much better over the last 15 games. Wall’s net rating and eFG percentage (again, from NBA Stats) for the last 15 games are better than his numbers for the entire season, showing that he has played at a higher level as well since December 7.

While his skills were never in doubt, it is encouraging to see a player with his talent be able to help carry a team.

As of January 3rd, FiveThirtyEight gives the Wizards a 54 percent chance to make the playoffs. This is a drastic improvement from the 28 percent the site gave Washington on December 6, but the team still has work to do to get to the seventh or sixth seed (and thus avoid a first-round matchup with Cleveland).

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Regardless, though, the team’s recent winning shows that the Washington Wizards still has a chance to live up to the potential of its best players.

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