History Tells Us Who Is Going To The NBA Finals

Looking at the past 15 years, a few glaring trends indicate that this year’s NBA Finals matchup is already decided

The 2016-17 NBA season has been one of the most memorable and fascinating years of my lifetime in the Association.

We’ve witnessed Russell Westbrook average a triple-double for an entire season for the first time since Oscar Robertson did it back in 1962 and we’ve been able to watch LeBron James, in year 14, put up better numbers than he ever has in the rebound and assist column – and that’s just scratching the surface of it all.

It has been a blessing to watch James Harden switch to point guard and run the most deadly spread pick-and-roll offense the world has ever seen. Last but not least, we have been able to be a part of such a close Most Valuable Player race, even Kobe Bryant is begging for co-MVPs.

When it’s all said and done, this regular season will never be forgotten. And it will make this year’s playoffs amplified to another level.

While all of the glitz and glamour of the regular season individual stats are sexy, it doesn’t translate to winning an NBA Championship.

Everything you read from this point on will tell you why we get lost in all of the sauce that is regular season statistics, and how history shows that great teams on both ends of the court win rings.

This table below shows the last 15 years of the league.

From left to right shows the year, league, champion, and regular season MVP. So much emphasis has been put on individual performance, and aesthetically pleasing gameplay. Don’t get me wrong, it’s incredible to watch and it boosts ratings through the roof, but we need to be able to separate what we like to watch and talk about, from what’s truly effective as a team.

Looking at this table above, only four regular season MVPs have gone on to win a NBA title in the last 15 years – 2014-15 Steph Curry, back-to-back like I’m LeBron 2012-13 (Drake Voice), and 2002-03 Tim Duncan. That is only about 26 percent of the time your regular season MVP is able to put his team on his back and win games when it matters most.

That’s because it’s almost impossible to do alone. Winning in the post season magnifies every single possession both offensive and defensive, and the importance of team play will never be higher.

Looking at the two NBA MVP frontrunners this year in Russell Westbrook and James Harden, this does not bode well for them. Their teams despite over achieving in the regular season and forcing us to fall in love with their individual stats, will fall short due to their one man wrecking crew style of play.

Team offense and defense is the most crucial it will ever be come playoff time. The game tends to slow down more and become slower paced with an emphasis on getting stops. Turnover numbers go down, fast break points get lower, just as time of possession gets more important. Strategy of trying to expose one weakness defensively is the elephant in the room.

If you have a defensive liability in at shooting guard (J.R. Smith), teams will run a high screen and roll to force your weakest defender onto an island with one of the leagues toughest guys to guard one on one (Steph Curry). We’ve seen it for the past two years and this upcoming playoffs will be no different.

If you look at the last 15 champions in NBA history, you will be able to funnel out pretenders in the playoffs from contenders based on their offensive and defensive ratings compared to other teams in the league that year. Out of the past 15 league champs, six of them were in the top 5 in the league in offensive rating. Nine of the 15 teams were in the top 5 in defensive rating. Defense wins championships, but a balance of solid defense and being able to score among the leagues best is vital for a championship run.

History tells us that only one team in the last 15 years won a championship without having an average offensive/defensive rating of top 8 in the league their respective year (2004 Detroit Pistons: 18th ORTG – 2nd DRTG). This formula eliminates every team in the playoffs this year except the Cavs, Warriors, Spurs, and Jazz.

Though it might not be ground breaking news, the numbers and history back up the Cavs making another finals appearance this year, but against who? I do realize this formula is strictly based on numbers and follows the “moneyball” theme, but numbers have been known to rarely tell lies.

A few variables have played a big part in this year’s Western Conference soon to be champion, but it might not even matter. The Jazz are 3rd in the league in defensive rating and play the slowest pace out of any NBA team in the league(91.5). This favors playoff basketball style, but being 12th in offense won’t be enough to overcome the other two teams in the west, who are also great defensive teams. The Jazz are eliminated.

Not only in the last 15 years, but in the history of the leagues existence, only 1 team has dominated both sides of the ball like Golden State has this year (’95-’96 Bulls: 1st ORTG – 1st DRTG). The Warriors are 1st in offense rating and second in defensive rating this season. They did this once before in 2014-2015, but this year they have a guy who missed some time with a fractured leg that you may have heard of before.

Kevin Durant is coming back after missing 19 games who before his injury, was averaging 25.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.1 spg, and 1.6 bpg. These numbers are staggering even for a guy who is playing with 3 other All-Stars. His impact on both ends of the floor and proven playoff experience is why the Warriors will beat the Spurs and go to the NBA Finals for a series rubber match.

Yes, this is more chalk than an old school blackboard but numbers don’t lie and history is just that. History. It happened for a reason because of the way teams were able to dominate both sides of the ball at the highest level of their seasons.

Must Read: NBA Playoff Power Rankings: Is A Cavs, Warriors Rubber Match Inevitable?

The most incredible regular season of my lifetime will be backed up by a third series of Cleveland vs Golden State. Statistically, the best team to ever be assembled vs LeBron, the one man that can trump numbers and make them lie.