Where Have All The Elite Shot Blockers Gone?

Addressing, the puzzling trend of decreased blocks per game in the NBA from the early 2000’s to now

It might be surprising to learn that Shaquille O’Neal averaged 2.3 blocks per game through his 19-year NBA career. I was shocked to see this, because I never thought of him as an elite shot blocker.

He never led the league in shot blocking, and was rarely even among the top 5 in shot blocking during his prime years, despite the fact that he averaged 2.6 blockers per game in his halcyon days with the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakes from 1992-2004.

He only finished top five in blocks per game in four seasons. In each of these seasons, he averaged more than 2.7 blocks per game, which would have paced the league this season (Rudy Gobert paced the league this year with 2.64 blocks per game).

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This suggests that either the quality of shot blockers in today’s NBA has deteriorated, or the nature of NBA shot-blocking has changed. I for one, am far more inclined to believe the former, as today’s leading shot blockers are more mobile than Shaq was, even at his prime.

So why do their numbers pale in comparison to his?

Before writing, I wanted to make sure that this year’s low shot blocking averages were not an aberration. I used ESPN’s stats data tracing back to 2000 to identify not only each year’s league leader in blocks per game, but also the 5th leading shot blocker per game.

There are often years where the shot blocking title is neck and neck, and years where the leading shot blocker dwarfs the numbers of his runner up – for instance, in 2016 Hassan Whiteside’s 3.68 blocks per game dwarfed not only 5th place Pau Gasol’s (2.03), but also 2nd place DeAndre Jordan’s (2.30).

Essentially, Whiteside was the lone outlier in a year that otherwise reflected the trend of decreasing blocks per game among “elite” shot blockers. I felt that including the averages of the 5th place runner up would give more context.

2013 was the only recent year that the five (5) leading shot blockers that year averaged per game numbers in keeping with those of the early and mid 2000’s.

Below is the line graph I created with the available data:

1st Place Shot Blocker 5th Place Shot Blocker

2000–

Alonzo Mourning: 3.72

Shawn Bradley: 2.47

2001-

Theo Ratliff: 3.74

Dikembe Mutombo: 2.71

2002-

Ben Wallace: 3.48

Dikembe Mutombo: 2.38

2003-

Theo Ratliff: 3.23

Adonal Foyle: 2.50

2004-

Theo Ratliff: 3.61

Marcus Camby: 2.60

2005-

Andrei Kirilenko: 3.32

Ben Wallace: 2.38

2006-

Marcus Camby: 3.29

Elton Brand: 2.54

2007-

Marcus Camby: 3.30

Tim Duncan: 2.38

2008-

Marcus Camby: 3.61

Dwight Howard: 2.15

2009-

Dwight Howard: 2.92

Jermaine O’Neal: 2.00

2010-

Dwight Howard: 2.78

Marcus Camby: 1.97

2011-

Andrew Bogut: 2.58

Darko Milicic: 2.03

2012-

Serge Ibaka: 3.65

Roy Hibbert: 1.97

2013-

Serge Ibaka: 3.03

Dwight Howard: 2.45

2014-

Anthony Davis: 2.82

Tim Duncan: 1.88

2015-

Anthony Davis: 2.94

DeAndre Jordan: 2.23

2016-

Hassan Whiteside: 3.68

Pau Gasol: 2.03

2017 –

Rudy Gobert: 2.66

Kristaps Porzingis: 1.95

Partially, this trend has to be attributed to the prevalence of today’s “position-less” basketball, where traditional shot blockers are often chasing opponents around the three point line, rather than patrolling the paint. There are few examples better than Serge Ibaka.

His consistent decline in blocks per game since plateauing at 3.65 in 2012 has reflected the rising number of three point shots – and the decreasing number of two point shots – taken league-wide over the years.

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Whether this trend is good or bad for the game is unclear. Since it is at least partially tied to the rise in three point shooting – especially among big men – it appears unlikely to reverse any time soon. We may see monster blocks numbers by a single player in each of the next few seasons, but multiple players averaging big numbers in the same season seems increasingly unlikely.