Combined Likelihood: 70%
You might have noticed that I didn’t do a slide like I did after the youth movement slide and there’s a reason – you have to combine the previous two slides to really weigh either option effectively.
On the one hand, the Brooklyn Nets trading away Brook Lopez would clear up a lot of cap space and leave the Nets with plenty of financial flexibility heading into the offseason. On the other hand, it’s a lot easier to sell a free agent on coming to a place like Brooklyn if you actually have something to offer than a collection of cast-offs and young players.
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On the other other hand, if you don’t trade Brook, and sign a guy like Otto Porter to a (near) max contract, then you have to take minutes away from one of RHJ, LeVert, Andrew Nicholson, Chris McCullough, etc. The reason I mention the last two players is because it reminds me of the Orlando Magic (who Nicholson used to play for.)
The Magic have had a host of young big man oozing with potential, but prioritized taking shortcuts to try and put out a winning product that caused them to play Aaron Gordon out of position, create a logjam with Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic, Bismack Biyombo, and Jeff Green. In turn former lottery selection Mario Hezonja saw a drop in minutes, Elfrid Payton was moved to the bench, and as the dust of the season settled they had 29-53 record to show for it.
To make matters worse, the player they traded to acquire Ross is on a playoff team contributing in a big way (Serge Iblocka.) Andrew Nicholson signed a big deal with the Wizards to anchor their bench, but he was traded for arguably Brooklyn’s best player in Bojan Bogdanovic, and received next to no playing time towards the end of the season.
To put it simply: I’m worried that Brooklyn is going to make one too many signings that stunts their young core’s growth, and they get stuck in lottery purgatory for a long time. I guess time will tell.