Portland Trail Blazers: Adding Carmelo Anthony wouldn’t move the needle

While trading for Carmelo Anthony seems like a good idea on the surface, it really wouldn’t make much of a difference for the Portland Trail Blazers

On the surface, adding a perennial NBA All-Star is almost a no-brainer. For any team. Usually, when any team makes such a move, it will transcend them to another level.

Not when it comes to Carmelo Anthony and the Portland Trail Blazers.

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Blazers are interested in trading for Melo. And the two faces of the Blazers are trying to sell Melo on the idea of playing in Portland.

"One team that New York and Houston had hoped would facilitate a multiteam trade for Anthony, the Portland Trail Blazers, plans to participate in a deal for Anthony only if he decides to expand his no-trade clause to include them, league sources told ESPN.…All-Star Damian Lillard and teammate CJ McCollum, speaking Wednesday at Lillard’s basketball camp in Beaverton, Oregon, said Anthony sounded intrigued by the idea."

McCollum is so sold on the idea of Melo coming to Portland, that’s he’s already penciling the Blazers as a top 3 seed in the West if the trade ever comes to fruition.

"If we add Carmelo Anthony we'll be a top three team in the West immediately." - #Blazers G @CJMcCollum pic.twitter.com/qoIBK8Ku5Y
— SiriusXM NBA Radio (@SiriusXMNBA) July 19, 2017

I hate to be a debbie downer, but that isn’t happening Mr. McCollum. For the sake of argument, let me explain why.

Before moving forward, however, we have to assume that the Blazers can make a trade for Carmelo Anthony work – which would include him waiving his no-trade clause. But let’s assume all of that will happen.

For the sake of argument, let’s just say that Portland would deal Allen Crabbe and Myers Leonard to the New York Knicks or some other third team for Carmelo Anthony.

That would leave the Blazers with a depth chart similar to this:

PG – Damian Lillard, Shabazz Napier
SG – C.J. McCollum, Pat Connaughton
SF – Carmelo Anthony, Evan Turner, Mo Harkless
PF – Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis, Noah Vonleh, Caleb Swanigan
C – Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins

That’s a solid team on paper, no question, but I don’t think anyone would pencil this squad into the third seed in the West. But, that’s not even the most important aspect of this argument.

To get there, we have to look back to last season.

The Blazers struggled out of the start. Portland finished the season with a 41-41 record, but were 17-6 in their last 23. One of the biggest reasons for their late season surge, which propelled them to the 8th seed in the West, was the emergence of Jusuf Nurkic, who was acquired at the NBA trade deadline from the Denver Nuggets.

In a way, the “real” Blazers are more than likely somewhere in the middle. However, giving them the benefit of the doubt, we’ll take that 23-game sample size as a point of reference.

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During those 23 games, the Blazers were 4th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating. Pretty impressive all things considered. Until you realize that the LA Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets were the three teams ahead of them in offensive rating. Two of those teams (Nuggets and Rockets) added an NBA All-Star during the summer – both of which are arguably better than Carmelo Anthony.

The Golden State Warriors were 0.2 points per 100 possessions behind the Blazers on the offensive end during that last 23 games of the 2016-17 season, too. It should be noted that the bulk of those games were played without Kevin Durant. If they would’ve been at full strength, they probably rank ahead of Portland.

Adding Carmelo Anthony, you’d think, would help any offense. And it probably would. Melo averaged 22 points per game last season, but it came on an average 43 percent from the field and 36 percent from three-point range.

Good, but not great offensive numbers. But maybe we can give him a pass considering that he was the focal point of every defensive game plan on a night-to-night basis. Getting open shots next to Lillard and McCollum should automatically move him up a couple of notches on the efficiency board.

Melo’s offensive box plus minus, which measures an estimate of the offensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, was 1.5 last season. For reference, Damian Lillard’s was 6.4 and C.J. McCollum’s was 3.5 last season.

Additionally, Melo’s offensive win shares was 3.2. Lillard’s was 8.8 and McCollum’s was 6.2. Take that for what it is. However, let’s just assume that Melo on the Blazers would make them better on the offensive side of the ball.

Question is, will that improvement on the offensive end be bigger than the disparity between how much worse he would make Portland on the defensive end?

Remember, every minute that Melo is in the game, a wing defender isn’t. Losing Crabbe, one of the team’s better perimeter defender, would hurt. And in closing lineups, the Blazers would have three players – Lillard, McCollum and Anthony – that are notoriously bad, at the very least below average, defenders.

Anthony’s defensive box plus minus was -2.2 last season. Lillard’s and McCollum’s was -2.0 and -2.3, respectively. For reference, Draymond Green, one of the NBA’s best defenders, had a DBPM of 5.0.

Melo’s -1.75 defensive real plus minus ranked 65th among small forwards in the NBA. Woof. Here’s a quick series of defensive breakdowns from Carmelo Anthony (H/T to YouTube user Dylan Murphy).

Historically, Melo’s offensive threat would long outweigh his defensive incapabilities. However, at 33, that would be almost unrealistic to expect. Melo’s best days are likely behind him, and I’m not sure if the up-and-down high pace Blazers offense would help or hurt his game.

In all likelihood, trading for Carmelo Anthony would look great on paper. It would no question help the Portland Trail Blazers sell – or, for the fans, resell – more tickets. However, on the court, the Blazers wouldn’t get significantly better.

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They’d certainly look better against the bottom feeders and middle of the pack teams in the West. However, against the giants like the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and maybe Oklahoma City Thunder, Anthony wouldn’t make much of a difference.

*all statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference