New York Knicks: How George Costanza can help with Kyrie Irving

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CLEVELAND, OH – FEBRUARY 23: Head coach Jeff Hornacek of the New York Knicks signals to his players during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena on February 23, 2017 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cavaliers defeated the Knicks 119-104. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Even with Kyrie, the Knicks aren’t in that class

Looking back through the years, it’s extremely rare (less than three per season) for a team in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating to win even 45 games.

We could be wildly optimistic and pencil the Knicks as one of those teams that scores their way to respectability despite a below average defense. In this scenario, they could still be enticing to a difference-making free agent in two years.

There is, of course, another equally plausible scenario.

Adding Kyrie at the expense of Melo and Frank leaves the Knicks extremely thin, such that the team would be depending on the likes of Ron Baker, Ramon Sessions, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, and Joakim Noah’s cadaver to play meaningful minutes. A starting lineup with two new faces may also take time to gel.

It’s not difficult to imagine an offense that’s merely on the outskirts of the top ten, a defense in the mid-20’s, and a .500 team in a weak East struggling to make the playoffs.

Things would no doubt get better in year two, but how much? Enough to convince Irving to sign with the Knicks long term? Enough to convince a third star that this is the place they could win a championship? Don’t bet on it.

It’s an inconvenient truth, but a truth nonetheless: For the better part of 20 years, the Knicks haven’t been able to get out of their own way. When things can go wrong, they do, often in comically unfortunate ways.

Here’s the simple fact of an Irving trade: there’s one way it can go right (as detailed above) and several ways it could go wrong.

Scenario 1: the Knicks do just well enough for Kyrie and KP to resign long term, but don’t attract a third star, leaving them capped out for the foreseeable future with a roster incapable of truly contending.

Scenario 2: Kyrie and KP – young players who both crave the spotlight – don’t mesh, and either KP forces a trade or Kyrie bolts in two years. The Knicks, having traded away Ntilikina and multiple draft assets, spend the next half-decade on the treadmill of mediocrity.

Scenario 3: a thin, shallow, and defensively challenged team just misses the playoffs next season.

And then everything starts to fall apart.

Their top-ten protected pick conveys to Cleveland, and they are still capped out. The same roster produces largely similar results in 2018-19, Kyrie bolts, and Kristaps Porzingis signs his qualifying offer. No one of significance takes the Knicks cap space, and unable to sell another rebuild to their star, they overspend on mediocre talent in an attempt to convince KP to sign long term.

It doesn’t work. The team craters, and watches its unprotected pick go to the Cavs, completing the obligations of the trade for Irving, who is now a Spur. Porzingis leaves, and fans are left to root for the shell of a team that’s left to finish last so the team can start over once again.

Read that last scenario again if you need to. True Knicks fans won’t. It’s the Knicksiest possible result of a classic, shortsighted, there-is-no-plan-B Knicks move.

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