NBA: How history tells us who will win the 2017-18 NBA MVP

SAN ANTONIO, TX - MAY 22: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors dunks the ball in the first half against the San Antonio Spurs during Game Four of the 2017 NBA Western Conference Finals at AT&T Center on May 22, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

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OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – APRIL 23: Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder reacts after scoring against the Houston Rockets during the first half of Game Four in the 2017 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Quarterfinals on April 23, 2017 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Oklahoma City defeated Houston 115-113 NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images) /

4. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Here’s where it gets serious.

There have been ten repeat winners since the league’s media started voting for the award in 1981. The good news for Russ’s quest to make it 11? His team won 47 games last year, and will in all likelihood be much, much better. Sure, his stats figure to drop off a bit, but even a 10 percent decline across the board will put him in rarefied air.

The problem is that not all repeats are created equally. Generally, the award is given to the same person consecutively when a) they’re recognized as the clear-cut best player in the league and their team is a legit contender (LeBron, Michael, Duncan, etc.) or b) they maintain or improve their performance and no one comes to claim the crown (Steve Nash and Steph Curry).

Russ may be a whirling dervish on speed, but he isn’t the league’s best player. He also won’t improve on last year, especially with Paul George around. Most of all though, the three guys ahead of him here should all improve on their already impressive performances from a year ago.

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