NBA: How history tells us who will win the 2017-18 NBA MVP

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OAKLAND, CA – JUNE 12: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after a basket by Stephen Curry #30 in Game 5 of the 2017 NBA Finals at ORACLE Arena on June 12, 2017 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant

When you’ve been watching the NBA for a while, you begin to get an idea of when someone’s time has come. In terms of just feeling like he’s due, no one can touch Kawhi Leonard.

Only 26, the Sharktopus has already made the slow and steady climb that most MVP winners must travel. He ended up tenth in 2015, second in ’16, and third a few months ago, although his finishes from the last two years feel inverted. Two seasons ago, when Curry won unanimously, everyone else – even the runner-up – was an afterthought.

Last year felt different. Almost the entire season felt like a tug of war between the Russ and Harden camps. Kawhi’s supporters conceded he wouldn’t take home top honors then, but that his time was coming very, very soon.

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He is a machine, as are the Spurs. He will continue to improve, and his groundswell of support will only increase.

It would take a special season for someone to deny him now.

Unfortunately for Leonard, the man who’s finished second three times himself is coming to spoil the party.

Last season, Durant faced the backlash that comes with being the final component to a superteam. LeBron felt it in 2010, and finished third that season – the only time he didn’t win the award between 2008 and 2012. Durant’s injury this past spring made the decision easier for voters (he ended up tied for tenth) but even if he had played 82, he was headed for a fifth-place finish.

This year will be different. The NBA Finals not only gave KD his first championship, but it felt like LeBron unofficially passed the torch to Durant as the league’s premier talent. Historically, when the best player in the league also plays for the best team in the league, he has a better than decent shot at bringing home some hardware.

But next year isn’t any year. Any number of a half-dozen players could mount serious challenges. What will set Durant apart is the fact that he simply feels deserving of a second trophy. Sure, there have been big names to only win once. Shaq and Kobe are recent examples. For all their greatness though, those guys had their warts.

Durant has none.

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He’s been open to the media, and the Warriors are one of the few juggernauts in sports history that people genuinely enjoy rooting for. It would feel odd for a top 10 all-time player (he’s closer than you think) to retire with only one NBA MVP.

Kawhi will get his…but not this year. It’s Durant’s time once again. And remember, you still the real MVP.

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