NBA: How history tells us who will win the 2017-18 NBA MVP

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BOSTON, MA – MAY 19: Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Boston Celtics reacts in the first half against the Cleveland Cavaliers during Game Two of the 2017 NBA Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 19, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images) /

Predicting the Top Five

Predicting the top five isn’t quite as easy as predicting the winner, but it’s close. In the last decade, an average of just over three players per year repeat their top five finish the following season.

It is rare – less than once per year – for a player to finish in the top five one year and out of the top ten the next. Usually, it’s the result of injury. In the nine times it has happened since 2007, the players dropping out averaged just under 52 games played, and that’s with Derrick Rose’s 39 games in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season being prorated.

Even rarer are instances when a player who has never before received a single MVP vote jumps into the top five. It usually is a player like Rose: a high pick coming into his own after a few seasons in the league.

Chris Paul and Dwight Howard both made the leap as 22 year old’s in 2007-08. At only 21, Kevin Durant finished second in 2009-10. Anthony Davis pulled off the feat three seasons ago.

The true anomaly is someone like Isaiah Thomas from last year. At 27 entering the season, he had never received a single vote, nor was he in his first season with a new team. He finished fifth. The last time something like that occurred was a decade earlier, when Chauncey Billups in his age-29 season – his fourth with the Pistons – also rounded out the top five.

The most recent trend in MVP voting has been for a player who finished in the six through ten range one year to jump into the top five the next. In the past four seasons, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden (twice) have all pulled it off.

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