NBA: How history tells us who will win the 2017-18 NBA MVP

SAN ANTONIO, TX - MAY 22: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors dunks the ball in the first half against the San Antonio Spurs during Game Four of the 2017 NBA Western Conference Finals at AT&T Center on May 22, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
SAN ANTONIO, TX - MAY 22: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors dunks the ball in the first half against the San Antonio Spurs during Game Four of the 2017 NBA Western Conference Finals at AT&T Center on May 22, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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BOSTON, MA – MAY 25: Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Boston Celtics talks with LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers after the Cavaliers defeated the Celtics 135-102 in Game Five of the 2017 NBA Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 25, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the Boston Celtics 4-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals to advance to the 2017 NBA Finals. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – MAY 25: Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Boston Celtics talks with LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers after the Cavaliers defeated the Celtics 135-102 in Game Five of the 2017 NBA Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 25, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the Boston Celtics 4-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals to advance to the 2017 NBA Finals. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /

Predicting the Top 10

Easily the least predictable part of MVP voting is what happens after the top five.

In the last 15 seasons, David Lee, Ty Lawson, Stephen Jackson, and P.J. Brown all received votes. Anthony Mason received MVP votes while playing for two different teams – neither of which was the Knicks. Weird stuff happens in the NBA.

Over the last decade, just over three players per year who finish sixth through 10th didn’t appear anywhere in the top 10 the previous season. Alternatively, the last four seasons have seen an average of three players per year jump into the top 10 after never before having received a vote.

Add it all up, and here’s what net year’s top-ten figures to look like:

  • The winner will likely be a top four finisher from this year, and almost definitely in the top seven
  • The rest of the top five will be rounded out by at least two players from this year’s top five, at least one player from this year’s top ten, and possibly a young, high-pedigree player getting his first votes
  • Six through 10 will feature a player from last year’s top five, a player from last year’s second five, and three newbies

With that in mind, we’ll get to our (partially) informed predictions for next season, but first…