Predicting the Top 10
Easily the least predictable part of MVP voting is what happens after the top five.
In the last 15 seasons, David Lee, Ty Lawson, Stephen Jackson, and P.J. Brown all received votes. Anthony Mason received MVP votes while playing for two different teams – neither of which was the Knicks. Weird stuff happens in the NBA.
Over the last decade, just over three players per year who finish sixth through 10th didn’t appear anywhere in the top 10 the previous season. Alternatively, the last four seasons have seen an average of three players per year jump into the top 10 after never before having received a vote.
Add it all up, and here’s what net year’s top-ten figures to look like:
- The winner will likely be a top four finisher from this year, and almost definitely in the top seven
- The rest of the top five will be rounded out by at least two players from this year’s top five, at least one player from this year’s top ten, and possibly a young, high-pedigree player getting his first votes
- Six through 10 will feature a player from last year’s top five, a player from last year’s second five, and three newbies
With that in mind, we’ll get to our (partially) informed predictions for next season, but first…