The Celtics and Cavs trade was horrendous and nobody is holding Boston accountable
By Ryan Piers
NBA Trade Rumors: The Boston Celtics made a horrendous move by trading for Kyrie Irving, and no one is calling them on it
The Cleveland Cavaliers asked for a king’s ransom in return for Kyrie Irving. Potentially the only kingdom big enough, with the exception of Castle de Curry, to meet those demands was Boston. And the Celtic Empire obliged, by providing their prince, best knight, and dragon for Cleveland’s general.
If this were Game of Thrones, King Brad Stevens would be demanding the heads of David Griffin and Cav’s GM Koby Altman. Because they pillaged his team, setting fire to its stronghold on the NBA while swiping the great trade wizard, Danny Ainge’s, magic.
The old adage is the team that acquires the best player wins the trade. In this case, that be Boston.
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But the cold, hard stats reveal this trade is an abomination for the Celtics. It’s a stunning move for a team with endless potential; a team on the verge of seizing the Eastern Conference. It’s an impulsive, greedy trade that flies in the face of Boston’s reputation as a team builder. For a day, Ainge was the NBA’s King Joffrey.
The Celtics were a season away from overtaking the Cavs, if that. Irving publically demanded a trade and rumors about James’s imminent departure were abundant. Boston, with its plethora of picks and young talent, just needed to wait the injured predator out.
But with one massive, mega deal, Boston let their main and possibly only serious competition off the hook. The relieved the Cavs of their worst headache, Irving, replacing him with Isaiah Thomas, a player nearly identical in production, so close in style they share a meme.
And the unprotected first-round pick couldn’t come at a better time for Cleveland. According to the statisticians at tankathon.com, the Brooklyn pick has a nearly 50 percent chance of turning into a top three selection; meaning Cleveland could very well restock with Michael Porter or Marvin Bagley if LeBron James bolts. Or deal the pick for a top 25 talent, the more likely and ideal solution for Cleveland.
Cleveland was without options one week ago, unsure of its future. Now, there are multiple paths. The Cavaliers were a sinking ship. The Celtics not only fixed the leak, but provided them with a new rudder. An illogical move by Ainge.
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But the Celtics GM doesn’t go by traditional logic. He defies norms, hiring a mid-major college coach, pivoting an offense on a 5-foot-9 point guard, and dealing multiple future hall-of-famers.
Surely Ainge felt Irving was the perfect fit for his system, even with the high sticker price. But Boston was second in passes per possession last year. Irving registered 367 isolation plays, twice as many as Thomas. That seems awkward.
He also struggled to keep the offense afloat with James off the floor, leading his team to 103 points per 100 possessions. That would have been ranked 26th in the league. Neither numbers indicate he’ll fit well in Brad Stevens system.
Let’s dive deeper into the numbers. If we’re to use win shares as the ultimate decider of talent, than Danny Ainge deserves an “F” on his summer report card. The Celtics parted ways with nearly their entire starting lineup, while bringing on all-stars Irving/Gordon Hayward and Marcus Morris. Analyzing value through the comprehensive stat of win shares, the Celts lost Jae Crowder (6.7 win shares), Thomas (12.5), Avery Bradley (3.1), Kelly Olynyk (4.5) and Amir Johnson (5.0). That’s a total of 31.8 wins, or 6.36 per player.
The Celtics gained 23.2 win shares, 8.9 from Irving, 10.4 from Hayward and 3.9 from Morris, averaging 7.3 per player. So at first glance it appears Boson, per player added, improved ever so slightly.
But Hayward and Irving combined for a 19.3 win share. Thomas and Crowder combined for a 19.0 That disturb you as a Boston fan. You’d think all the assets and cap room spent on the team’s new duo would mean a serious upgrade. And the Celtics lost wins at the power forward position by downgrading from Johnson to Morris. Johnson averages more than a block and rebound more per game than Morris.
Yes, Boston got younger and of course Hayward and Irving’s ceilings are higher than the Thomas/Crowder combo. But looking strictly at hard, measurable data, the Celtics sacrificed valuable cap space and a potential franchise-altering pick to improve by one win next year. One stinken win. And based strictly off win shares, their starting lineup might actually be worse next season.
To Ainge’s credit he may have been blinded by the shiny name that is Kyrie Irving. He saw the possibility of obtaining former-number-one-pick Kyrie Irving, Uncle Drew Kyrie Irving and momentarily lost his marbles. But reporters and pundits who failed to dissect this deal with an analytical eye don’t deserve a mulligan.
FOX’s Colin Cowherd rambled for eight minutes, referencing awkward analogies without mentioning a single number. All opinions. No data.
ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith said Irving was the only championship tested player in the deal, this sided with Boston. An opinion. No data.
Bleacher Report’s analysis failed to look at win shares and strong, comprehensive statistics when picking apart this deal. It called the trade “even.”
The Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughessy lauded the trade, claiming Irving is the “second best player in the Eastern Conference.” Irving didn’t finish top five in PER, win shares or value over replacement player in the East last season.
Shaughnessy, the man responsible for holding Stevens accountable, completely ignores the ignores comprehensive numbers casting a very dark shadow of Irving’s star prowess and potential. He shamefully lobs fluffy opinions with no substance in time where a spine and critical analysis would have gone a long way.
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Irving’s step back threes and double-clutch layups are pretty. But the numbers show he’s not that good.