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NBA: Young stars and their potential HOF comparisons

By Ryan Magdziarz

NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 07: Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks and Kristaps Porzingis #6 of the New York Knicks fight for position at Madison Square Garden on December 7, 2015 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 07: Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks and Kristaps Porzingis #6 of the New York Knicks fight for position at Madison Square Garden on December 7, 2015 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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INDIANAPOLIS, IN – MARCH 28: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves watches the action against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 28, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – MARCH 28: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves watches the action against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 28, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

Karl-Anthony Towns and Tim Duncan

This comparison is more based off of statistical analysis rather than the previous two, which were more style of play comparisons. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the most dynamic big men in the NBA today and he has only been drinking beer legally for a year. There is no question KAT is more athletic than Tim, even dating back to the years we are comparing, his rookie and sophomore years. Duncan shot 1 for 17 (5.8 percent) from three in his first two years in the league compared to Towns’ 131 for 363 (36 percent).

Duncan went to his back to the basket low post, or face-up high post game almost every offensive possession. He was the big fundamental for a reason; nothing flashy, just his bread and butter moves. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.

I would argue Karl Anthony Towns is at the opposite end of the spectrum. He is very close to literally unguardable and unpredictable. He can score from low post, mid range, three-point range, off the dribble, dribble hand-off, pick and roll man, and even pick and roll ball handler. The limit does not exist for Towns’ offensive skill set. That being said, this comparison is about statistics early on in their careers, not style of play. Prepare to be spooked.

Both Tim and KAT were crazy efficient. Neither of them missed a single start in their first two seasons as professionals (Tim 132/132 – KAT 164/164). Tim averaged an insane 21.3 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 2.6 apg, and 2.5 blocks per game in his first two seasons as an NBA player. This was all done shooting at 52.7 percent from the field and shooting 16.2 times a game in 39 minutes per game. Tim’s usage rate was through the roof and Popovich depended on him as if he had been in the league for 10 years.

MEMPHIS, TN – MAY 27: Tim Duncan
MEMPHIS, TN – MAY 27: Tim Duncan /

Karl through his first two years had eerily similar stats: 21.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 2.3 apg, and 1.5 bpg. Take a moment to compare those numbers quickly from the paragraph above. I will wait.

KAT put up these staggering numbers while recording 54.2 percent shooting, on 16.1 shot attempts per game, playing 34.5 minutes per game. Again, haunting similarities between these two evolutionary players of their own time period.

Both players ran away with Rookie of the Year honors blowing out their fellow classmates, but one glaring difference stands out when comparing these two young studs; Defense. Tim was first in the entire league in defensive win shares as a rookie with .076. He averaged 2.5 blocks a game both his rookie and sophomore year, where KAT averaged 1.7 as a rookie and 1.3 in his second year. KAT has shown minor improvements in his defensive abilities as his career goes on, but there is a clear discrepancy in his interest level offensively versus defensively.

Coincidentally, Tim Duncan went to the playoffs as a rookie, but lost in the semifinals. His sophomore year, Tim and the Spurs won an NBA championship. Karl-Anthony Towns is yet to sniff the NBA playoffs, and this won’t change unless him and his troops start taking pride on defense.

Defense wins championships, and young Tim Duncan was very aware of that. One of the main reasons for this awareness early on was his mentor and teammate 33-year-old veteran David Robinson. KAT was not as fortunate to inherit such a leader early on, but in 2018 newly acquired T-Wolf Jimmy Butler may play the role of The Admiral in this comparison.

Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward of all time. He was a 15 time all-star, three-time Finals MVP, and has five championships to his name. Not only were his individual numbers astronomical in his prime, but even when his talent was fading away, he was still contributing to winning teams. By no means am I saying Karl Anthony Towns is on track to be a better player than Tim Duncan because I cannot see the future, I am saying that their individual statistics match up extremely similar.

Must Read: Top 5 under 25: The most valuable youngsters in the NBA

The next step for KAT to be on his way to having a great career similar to Duncan’s is to improve defensively, and have his goals revolve around winning games for his team. This upcoming year for Minnesota once they get a taste of the playoffs will be a growth spurt for Towns’ developement as a team player.

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