3 Storylines to Keep an Eye on Throughout the Season
Chris Paul and James Harden Dynamic
Well, the big elephant in the room seems to be “how can two ball dominant players co-exist on the floor at the same time?” That seems to be the common national criticism the Houston Rockets received after acquiring Chris Paul to accompany James Harden in Houston’s backcourt. Here are a couple reasons why I think the duo will work and what to watch for with Harden and Paul throughout the season.
-Chris Paul Will Help James Harden Close
The Rockets collapsed in epic fashion against the Spurs in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs. The series was still within reach when the Rockets won by 21 points in Game 4, evening the series at 2-2. Unfortunately, the Rockets proceeded to lose in OT of Game 5 and were blown out in an uncompetitive Game 6 by 39 points.
One of the primary reasons I thought Houston dropped the final two games of the series was that James Harden was flat-out exhausted. Harden looked gassed starting in the second half of Game 5 and it carried over to Game 6. Below are Harden’s stats from the 2nd half of Game 5 (including OT) and Game 6.
- 61:32 min played, 20 Points, 23 percent FG%, 18 percent 3P%, 1:1 AST-TO Ratio
In addition to the lackluster statistical line, Harden showed physical signs of fatigue. He hit front rim on jump shots, threw lazy passes and held the ball too long stagnating the offense. The Rockets and Harden looked eerily reminiscent of the 2015-2016 Rockets team lead by former head coach J.B. Bickerstaff.
Harden simply had too much on his plate when it came down to closing out the series. The Rockets were obviously a good team last season, but the roster outside of Harden was comprised of role players. Some had individual shot creating ability like Eric Gordon and Lou Williams, but at no point in any their careers were they considered stars. The Rockets were designed around one superstar in Harden with a collection of perfectly engineered role players for D’Antoni’s offense. The success of the Rockets rested entirely on the play of Harden last season.
Chris Paul on the other hand is no doubt a superstar and knows exactly what if feels like to be primarily responsible for the success of a team. Keep an eye how the Rockets offense looks in the last five minutes of games. I would expect Paul to be the primary ball handler in crunch-time situations, calling offensive sets for Harden to get him open shots. This is going to make life much easier on Harden as he usually had to create his own shot off the dribble late in games.
-Chris Paul’s Leadership
Chris Paul may be the last of what many NBA fans characterize as a “traditional point guard.” Whether he was in New Orleans or Los Angeles, Paul has always been the leader on his teams. His personality suites leadership. Even off the court, Paul has served as President of the NBA Players Association since 2013.
While James Harden is no stranger to leading his own team, it doesn’t always look like it comes as naturally to him as it does to Paul. For much of Harden’s career he has been a cool, collected offensive assassin, not necessarily an orchestrator of a team’s offense or a vocal leader.
Many Rockets fans would argue the emotional leader of the Rockets in recent years was Patrick Beverley. Beverley lead through example by consistently playing relentless defense and sacrificing his body for loose balls.
Beverley will be fondly remembered for pestering opposing team’s point guard the full length of the court and inspiring that type of play in his teammates. However, Beverley’s leadership capability could be viewed as limited. It’s tough to lead teammates and hold them accountable as the fourth or fifth most talented player on the team. The Rockets could never turn to Beverley in the last 5 minutes and say, “go win the game.” That responsibility rested with Harden.
Paul however doesn’t shy away from the spotlight and is perfectly capable of taking over a game at any point. Paul will assume most of the leadership responsibilities, allowing Harden to do what he does best, score.
Throughout the season, watch how Paul challenges his teammates when they make a mistake, how he communicates with teammates both on the floor and during timeouts. The Rockets now have another player they can look to during adversity to steer the team to victory.
How Good Will The Rockets Be On Defense
As mentioned previously, the Houston Rockets took a slightly different approach in filling out the rotation than in years past. After acquiring Paul, general manager Darly Morey signed versatile defensive players in P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute and Tarik Black.
During head coach Mike D’antoni and Daryl Morey’s press conference at the Rockets’ Media Day on Sept. 25, D’antoni was asked about how the offseason additions changes their approach and defensive identity. Below are some excerpts from the commentary D’antoni provided in his response. The full press conference can be viewed directly below D’antoni’s quotes.
"“I’ve think we’ve got better defensive players…we’ve got a lot of them…guys that are really good at it, that’s guys like P.J. Tucker, Mbah a Moute and Tarik Black…so that allows us as a coaching staff to switch more, to game plan better… so yeah, we need to be in the top five defensively….if Golden State is number one offensively and number one or two defensively, duh we got to be up there.”"
Top five!? Not exactly aspirations we would expect to hear from one of the most offensive minded coaches of the last 20 years.
However, D’antoni makes a solid point. The Golden State Warriors ranked second in defensive rating and first in offensive rating last season. Houston on the other hand ranked second in offensive rating, but 18 in defensive rating.
How can the Rockets expect to compete with the Warriors if they are average defensively? Well, they can’t. That would explain the type of players Houston targeted in the offseason.
During the regular season, look for D’antoni to experiment with some of the defensive lineup possibilities. During the normal flow of a game could see the following lineup.
- Chris Paul, James Harden, P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute, Clint Capela
This lineup allows D’antoni to be defensively focused without giving up shooting. Tucker and Mbah a Moute both shot above 35 percent from three last season. If D’antoni is concerned about Capela’s free throw shooting down the stretch, he could insert Black at the center position. Black shot better than 75 percent from the foul line last season for the Lakers.
Of course, if D’antoni wants to run teams off the court offensively, he still has the option to do so by inserting Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson in the lineup. Both of who were atrocious defensively last season, but with better defensive personnel around them, D’antoni could hide them on lesser offensive players.
The point is the Rockets’ roster can feature defensive lineups that they couldn’t a year ago. No matter what collection of players were on the floor for the Rockets last season, there were always bound to be defensive holes. Now D’antoni has defensive lineups to trot on the floor and get a stop when the Rockets need it most.
The Rockets will never never finish near the league’s best in opposing points per game because of their pace. The sheer number of possessions opposing teams will have against the Rockets will inflate and mask the Rockets defensive effectiveness. However, from an efficiency standpoint they could be much better this season.
Look how the Rockets’ defense looks in the fourth quarter and in final possessions. Are they rotating to the necessary defender if someone gets beat? Do they close out on open shooters? Are they cutting off driving and passing lanes?
Don’t jude the Rockets defense by how many points they give up throughout the season. The Warriors didn’t even finish in the top 10 in opponent points per game last year. Judge the Rockets’ defense by if they get the defensive stops they need in order to win close games.
How Does The Offense Change with Chris Paul
In addition to James Harden’s exhaustion, another reason I believe the Rockets ended up losing to the Spurs in the Playoffs last season was that they were too predictable on offense.
The Rockets offensive philosophy is likely known by anyone who moderately follows the NBA. Run the floor, maximize three pointers and shots at the rim and run the pick n’ roll with Harden. That pretty much summed up what the Rockets tried to do offensively in every game last season.
The Rockets executed that to perfection more often than not. They won 55 games and exceeded everyones expectations going into the season. We constantly heard how ownership, the front office, coaching staff and players were perfectly aligned in terms of how the team wanted to play.
That narrative sounds great. However, you are making it fairly easy for Gregg Popovich to prepare if the offense is one-dimensional. The Rockets offense completely ran through Harden last season when he was on the floor. Quite simply, if you slow down Harden you beat the Rockets.
I expect the offensive philosophy to largely remain the same, but with the addition of Chris Paul it won’t be identical. The Rockets are known for maximizing three pointers and shots at the rim. Paul is not. Below is a percentage breakdown of where Paul’s shot selection came from and his shot chart.
- Painted Area: 21%
- Mid-Range: 41%
- Three Pointer: 38%
Chris Paul's insane shot chart from 2016-17. pic.twitter.com/lmnV6xiDRK
— Maxwell Ogden (@MaxwellOgden) June 25, 2017
Based on shot selection, Paul and the Rockets aren’t exactly a match made in heaven, so something has to give.
I don’t expect Paul to completely conform his game to the Rockets philosophy. He is a mid-range mastermind and could capitalize if defenses continue to allow mid-range shots against the Rockets. Paul’s mid-range attack is a wrinkle opposing teams haven’t seen from the Rockets, making them more unpredictable on offense.