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Houston Rockets: 2017-18 season primer: How high will they soar?

By Logan Metzger

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 10: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets and Chris Paul #3 of the LA Clippers look on during the second half of a game at Staples Center on April 10, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 10: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets and Chris Paul #3 of the LA Clippers look on during the second half of a game at Staples Center on April 10, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /
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SAN ANTONIO, TX – MAY 03: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts against the San Antonio Spurs during Game Two of the NBA Western Conference Semi-Finals at AT&T Center on May 3, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
SAN ANTONIO, TX – MAY 03: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts against the San Antonio Spurs during Game Two of the NBA Western Conference Semi-Finals at AT&T Center on May 3, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

How the Rockets Season Ends

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Houston Rockets over-under win total sitting at 55.5 wins as of Aug. 29, half a win better from how they finished last season. On the surface, it is easy to say, “They Rockets have Chris Paul, they will win more games.” Unfortunately, the Rockets aren’t the only team in the Western Conference that were busy this offseason.

Nearly every Western Conference team made significant upgrades either through the NBA Draft or free agency. The Minnesota Timberwolves acquired Jimmy Butler, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Even teams like the Denver Nuggets could prove challenging for the Rockets during a difficult portion of their schedule. The Rockets will drop some winnable games this season considering their competition will be better throughout the Western Conference.

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That being said, I think the Rockets will win between 55-60 games and finish the regular season second in the West.

The addition of Paul gives the Rockets another superstar player to pair with James Harden. Opposing teams can no longer only focus on stopping Harden. Harden should see cleaner looks at the basket and more open driving lanes.

P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute also provides the Rockets more defense and creates more lineup flexibility. They now have the roster to feature a defensive minded, small ball lineup that can switch on pick n’ rolls.

That doesn’t sound like a big deal, but in the playoffs that is critical. We saw many teams in the playoffs run the pick n’ roll to death in order to exploit a mismatch when defending teams switched. Offenses consistently took advantage of poor defenders that switched onto dynamic offensive players. The Rockets now have a lineup that can switch on many pick n’ rolls without being exposed to a significant mismatch.

I wish I could tell you that I think the Rockets have a legitimate chance to beat a healthy Golden State Warriors team in a playoff series, but I can’t.

Barring injury, I predict the Rockets will lose to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals in five games. That is not an indictment on the Rockets, just respecting how unbelievably talented the Warriors are. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook mentioned above, have the Warriors over under win total projected at 67.5 wins. That is more than 10 wins from the next highest team in the NBA.

Must Read: NBA Hope Index: How far is each team from a ring heading into 2017-18?

The Rockets are technically considered NBA title contenders and rightly so. They are projected to finish with the third best record according to odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Unfortunately, they will have to defeat one of the greatest teams in NBA history to capture a title which is unlikely to happen.

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