Carmelo’s choice and the potential Thunder superpower
Carmelo Anthony has the chance to change the narrative on himself and the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, but it’s all on him
Winning hasn’t been Carmelo Anthony’s first concern, and his career reflects that.
In 2011 he coerced a trade from the Nuggets to the Knicks. The move seemed unnecessary because, regardless of what the Nuggets wanted, Anthony was a free agent in a few months and bound for New York. Money was the motive – the trade allowed Anthony to sign a more lucrative contract than free agency would have. But the Knicks roster was emaciated as it lost a quartet of young players, including Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, plus draft picks.
Then in 2014, despite a still lackluster Knicks’ roster, Anthony renewed his contract. It wasn’t a bad bargain; Anthony was an idol in NYC with big-time exposure and big-time money and big-time opportunities outside of basketball. Not winning, however, was the cost. And he knew it.
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Now, escaped from the New York tumult, Anthony has an opportunity to show his priorities have shifted. Maybe they have – older and wiser, as they say. His scoffing response to if he would come off the bench wasn’t a fortuitous indicator, but most players aren’t Manu Ginobili or Dirk Nowitzki.
If he has changed, it may be too late. Despite any commentary by Charles Barkley or Kobe Bryant, Anthony wasn’t ever the league’s best pure scorer. Because of his graceful game, neat name or the New York media, Carmelo’s reputation has always been inflated. At his best, he was still a tier or two behind the NBA’s elite.
Anthony is 33 now. Career blemishes such as his reluctant passing and lethargic off-ball defense will still flare up, and lagged muscle fibers already hamper him. Carmelo’s efficiency in transition last year ranked in the 19th percentile of players, according to NBA.com. That wedged him between Michael Carter-Williams and Mindaugas Kuzminskas.
538’s coincidentally named CARMELO system projects Anthony as an average starter with a five-year market value of 30.8 million dollars. That’s a wretched outlook for a Thunder organization that’s scheduled to pay him more than 26 million this season. Worse? The player option he has for the 2018-19 season.
But production is dependent on fit and Carmelo’s value for Oklahoma City is real. Last year the team played a style of basketball counter to the rest of the NBA, leaning on offensive rebounding and defense over shot creation and spacing. In tandem with Paul George, Carmelo alleviates the concerns. Despite fuss about Anthony’s inefficiency, the problem sources mostly from his shot selection. For the Thunder, that’s surmountable.
Westbrook will still be the offensive fulcrum, and that’s essential for Anthony to contribute. We’ve seen Carmelo have success playing off of quality point guard play before, with Chauncey Billups in Denver and then Jason Kidd in New York. Both were excellent – especially Billups on the 2009 Nuggets – but Westbrook is ridiculous. Despite the spacing snafus and a heinous bench, Westbrook still buoyed the Thunder offense to league-average.
Carmelo and Paul George need Westbrook’s attacking and playmaking because they don’t do much of either. Only 13 percent of Anthony’s shots came at the rim last season, according to basketball-reference.com. George’s number was nearly identical. Blame Anthony’s elapsed youth and George’s baggy ball handling, plus complacency to hang around the perimeter.
But what they do well is what the Thunder needed to add. In a league where effective lineups wield four shooters, Westbrook was often deprived of them entirely – no team had a worse three-point percentage than Oklahoma City. The Thunder still won’t have great spacing among the starters; that’s impossible with Westbrook, Adams, and Roberson playing together. But the team at least leaped to 2017.
Take ill-advised pull-ups out of the equation, and you see how George and Anthony spread the floor. Via NBA.com, George was in the 84th percentile of players in spot-up efficiency. Anthony was in the 93rd.
Carmelo has a pestering sweet-tooth for isolation, but he shouldn’t be able to jettison too many possessions from the starters with Westbrook dominating the ball. When Westbrook sits, Anthony will have more freedom to indulge and the Thunder may benefit. Last season the team relied on Victor Oladipo to chaperone when Westbrook was off the court and it was change-the-channel ugly. Compared with that, ‘Melo marinating opposing benches with jab-steps ought to be a delight. He can still score from his spots and is a wonder at not turning the ball over.
If Carmelo is an assiduous adaptor, if he enjoys Oklahoma City and winning and isn’t too annoyed by scoring less, the Thunder will be well off
The forgotten men – Steven Adams and Andre Roberson – benefit as much as anybody from the new additions. Last year the offense featured the Westbrook and Adams pick and roll. With less clutter around the paint, this year it should be even better. Adams’ clumsy post-ups, however, which accounted for a quarter of his offense last season, should be mostly out the door.
Roberson would have been better off in football where he would have played defense only. Nevertheless, he’s a net positive on the court. But, as a guard without a perimeter game, Roberson needs perimeter forwards playing with him to balance court geometry. George and Anthony do that.
In exchange, Anthony needs Adams and Roberson to supplement him on defense. Anthony isn’t a sieve in isolation or in the post but is a lousy defender still. He gets disinterested, doesn’t hustle, and won’t protect the rim or collect steals. It’s tempting to pin Carmelo’s defensive failures on the Knicks’ team failures, but this isn’t a new problem. Ask George Karl about Carmelo’s defense.
With supple defenders on the wings and Adams at center, the Thunder have the tools to hide Anthony to some extent. But there’s no free lunch. The best offenses will finagle him into the play regardless and abuse his presence. That’s unavoidable – after 14 years, Anthony is too deep into his career to reinvent himself. Still, modest changes make a difference: stay engaged, communicate a little, make smart rotations, don’t die on picks.
And that’s the story all-around. Carmelo doesn’t have to be a torrid rebounder; he does have to care about boxing out. He doesn’t need to defer like Andre Iguodala; he does need to realize when there’s time to find a better shot. Defensively, he could draw a single charge – he didn’t last year.
Those things make a difference. If Carmelo is an assiduous adaptor, if he enjoys Oklahoma City and winning and isn’t too annoyed by scoring less, the Thunder will be well off. But it doesn’t always go that way – LaMarcus Aldridge’s San Antonio tenure hasn’t gone as he envisaged, and Kyrie Irving barged out of Cleveland.
Ego matters. Carmelo may not want to defile the elegance of his game or his reputation. The world will recognize him as the Oklahoma City Thunder’s third best player, and in honesty, current Carmelo isn’t better than Steven Adams. That might not be okay for a player who was jealous of Jeremy Lin.
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We’ll see which way Anthony pivots. Neither direction is better or worse than the other; sometimes, winning isn’t everything. Maybe he had it right all along.