Portland Trail Blazers: Finding a third star for Lillard and McCollum
By Vance Abreu
Dame Lillard and C.J. McCollum have kept the expected sinking ship that is the Portland Trail Blazers above water. It’s time they ascend further and find the third cog
The Portland Trail Blazers’ dynamic backcourt has been an exciting experiment. The retooling of the roster, following the departure of key starters LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez has worked effectively.
Led by the incredible play of both Dame Lillard and C.J. McCollum, the Trail Blazers have managed to continue to be a playoff team. However, while still competing in the mid-tier of the Western Conference, the ceiling this current roster has is extremely limited.
The Trail Blazers have been seeking a third star to compliment and project the roster into the upper-echelon of the NBA. The management unwisely massively overpaid Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard and Allen Crabbe (traded) in search of their third star.
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Portland’s scheme revolves around off-ball movement, cutting and screening to keep the whole team involved. Dame and C.J. both posted usage rates above 27 percent. The high volume of possessions that the two guards use suggests the need for elite shooting to create greater spacing for Dame and C.J.
Similarly, Portland’s big men play a pivotal role in their scheme. The flow offense emphasizes the need for big men to set various screens, finish around the rim and having a high passing IQ and recognition.
Jusuf Nurkic fit the offensive needs greatly. His large frame created greater separation on screens, and his post skills naturally gravitated defenders towards him. Nurkic’s abilities would have been heightened further with more shooting.
Mo Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Noah Vonleh would all work off curl screens from Nurkic. The separation that was caused would be deadly for a good jump shooter such as Dame and C.J., however, in these situations defenders could easily switch or go under the screens, negating the advantages caused by Nurkic.
A further analysis of their shot chat further cements the need for shooting. As a team, the Portland Trail Blazers shot a paltry 57.6 percent within three feet of the basket, 3.3 percent lower than league average.
The failure to convert of lay-ups and dunks was a by-product of their lack of respectable shooting. Opponents were comfortable with leaving all their wings bar Crabbe open, as the defense focused solely on shutting down Dame, C.J. and Nurkic.
Portland struggled defensively throughout last season. Their 108.5 opponents points per game ranked 25th in the league. Dame and C.J.’s abysmal defensive acumen is the focal point of their issues.
The Trail Blazers acquired players to minimise the atrocious perimeter defense. Aminu and Harkless have strengthened the perimeter.
Aminu is capable of locking down most stars on a given night while Harkless’ length and size allow him to shift in between forwards spots without a significant drop off in defense.
Ideally, a lockdown wing that is capable of guarding guards as well would be optimal. Aminu and Harkless both lack the foot speed to defend elite guards, therefore, being better suited to combo forwards.
Portland also lacks a rim-protector needed to minimise their perimeter frailties further. Nurkic‘s opponents shot above 56 percent from within six feet. The lack of interior presence further diminishes their defense.
Nurkic’s issues are due to a lack of lateral mobility and pick and roll IQ. The centre is an above average defensive rebounder which will limit the second chance points and extra possession potentially created.
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Nurkic is still at a ripe age of 23. Therefore his understanding and IQ of the pick and roll and other defensive skills with improving the defense in the long run. His size will, however, limit his shot blocking abilities, a necessity for Portland.
Portland requires their third star to be either an elite perimeter wing or centre. A greater emphasis on the defensive end must be a focus to mask the weaknesses of Dame and C.J.
The two wings that fit the mold of player are Paul George and Paul Millsap. Both Paul’s are lockdown wing defenders and great shooters. George would be more beneficial due to his versatility and ability to come off various screens and shoot off the dribble.
Conversely, Millsap’s passing and defense would provide an alternative look for the Trail Blazers. Millsap would cause havoc for opposing defenses in the pick and roll.
Capable of operating in the high post, as a screener and ball handler, Portland’s flow offense would generate a lot of open looks for Millsap and Dame and C.J. as they work of Millsap.
Regarding centres, Marc Gasol or Myles Turner would fit many of the needs for Portland. Gasol does it all as a centre. Able to shoot, pass, rebound and block shots, Gasol would improve Portland’s defense and offense incredibly.
Turner is dubbed a future star in the league and fits the timeline of Portland. Turner has shown a deft touch from outside and elite tools to be the best shot blocker in the NBA. Turner will need to improve his passing to fit the offense, a skill most young bigs do not possess.
Acquiring these players would be quite an issue. Millsap and Gasol are both untouchable. Memphis may be a candidate to blow up their current team if the season goes pear-shaped early on.
A package of Nurkic, Collins, Turner, a first-round pick and a second for Gasol could be enticing for Memphis.
Myles Turner is the most likely of the four. Portland has the assets required to make an offer Indiana cannot refuse. A combination or Collins, Nurkic, and a first-round pick would be more than enough for Indiana.
Millsap, as a newly acquired free agent, would be all but impossible to trade for in the first two seasons of his contract.
Paul George is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Portland will have to clear max space to be able to offer George the contract he demands. A salary dump of Turner’s and Leonard’s contract would be a necessity.
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The Portland Trail Blazers have limited assets and cap space required to pull off a significant trade for superstars such as Anthony Davis. As shown above, Portland is still able to focus on stars before, during and past their prime whom would all benefit the team immensely.