Miami Heat: Justise Winslow could change the math in 2017-18

Giving Justise Winslow a bigger play-making responsibility could change the math for the Miami Heat in 2017-18

After missing 64 total games in his sophomore season, Justise Winslow became somewhat of an afterthought for the Miami Heat heading into 2017-18.

Through the first handful of games, that still very much remains the case. Winslow, in his third year, is averaging a career-low 24 minutes per game this season. Coming off injury, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. However, the fact that he’s, at times, the 8th or 9th player off the bench on any given night is somewhat a perplexing complex.

When the Miami Heat took Winslow with the No. 10 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, he was almost unanimously considered the steal of the draft. His ability to play defense at an elite level coupled with his unique play-making ability nearly guaranteed that he would be a star at the next level. At the very least, he’d be a really good player for a really good team.

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And after his impressive rookie season, it was difficult to argue against that. During his rookie campaign, Winslow averaged six points and five rebounds in nearly 29 minutes per contest. While those numbers don’t exactly blow you away, it should be noted that he was playing significant minutes for a third seed in the Eastern Conference. Context matters. Heck. he even started at center in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Toronto Raptors.

The sky was the limit for this kid, and his rookie season suggested he was just getting started.

The next 16 months, however, wouldn’t exactly fall in line with that premise.

After falling short of the Eastern Conference Finals by one game, Miami lost Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Luol Deng and Chris Bosh in the offseason. The team was gutted. The only substantial contributors that remained on the roster heading into the 2016-17 NBA season were Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow (if he counts).

Despite losing the heart of the roster, perhaps this would end up being a blessing in disguise for Winslow and the Miami Heat.

Instead of rising to the occasion, though, Winslow was plagued by injuries throughout the 2016-17 season and was ultimately shut down after just playing 18 games. During that small sample size, Winslow averaged 11 points, five rebounds and four assists on a woeful 36 percent shooting from the field.

It was a season to forget for both the Miami Heat, who failed to make the playoffs for the second time in three years post-LeBron, and Winslow.

Entering another offseason filled with uncertainty, the Heat decided to be proactive and bring stability to the franchise. That meant re-signing Dion Waiters and James Johnson, and extending Josh Richardson. Miami also brought back Wayne Ellington. They also added Kelly Olynyk.

The problem with all this, however, is that Miami was bringing back a core that didn’t exactly include Winslow. Technically, Winslow was still on the roster, but the 2016-17 Miami Heat began clicking as soon as he was shut down for the season.

In a way, it was almost like the Heat were drafting Winslow all over again. This time, though, he would be joining a crowded wing/backcourt rotation.

Considering Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and Okaro White, there are at least five rotation players that essentially play the same position as Winslow.

And through five games, that’s very much evident. Even when Winslow is in the game, he seems out of place. It’s almost like Winslow is in the worst possible offense suited for his strengths.

Erik Spoelstra has altered the offense around a drive and kick scheme, which caters to the strengths of Dion Waiters and Goran Dragic. Winslow’s jumper is still very much a work in progress, and can’t really showcase his play-making ability when he’s often forced to play off ball when he’s in the game.

Winslow is only averaging 2.4 drives per game this season, on a below average 14.8 usage rate. Winslow has 16 made field goals on the season. Of those 16, 10 of them have come with him attacking the basket (whether it be off the drive, cut or put-back).

It’s no secret that at this point in his career, Winslow’s most effective offense occurs when he’s attacking the basket (with or without the ball). However, he hasn’t been given enough opportunities on offense in order to take advantage of his prowess around the rim and driving to the hoop.

Winslow is a good distributor when he’s give the opportunity.

Winslow shouldn’t be the highest usage player the Heat, but he shouldn’t have to fight for opportunities on offense either. Miami has the luxury of a point guard that can play off ball. Winslow should be put in more pick-and-roll situations as the ball-handler.

But the more the offense forces Winslow to stand in the corner or spot up for a long 2 or limits him to being a cutter, the more of a disservice they are doing to him. And often, that results in Winslow looking less and less like that talented play-making star that we saw at Duke.

We still don’t know what Justise Winslow is or what he could be. His untapped potential is something that should excite the Heat, not force them to hide him.

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The Miami Heat have gotten off to an uneven 2-3 start. They have another formidable foe Monday night in the Minnesota Timberwolves. If the Heat continue to spiral in the wrong direction, perhaps they will look to the only man on the roster that could change the math for the team this season. Justise Winslow.