Next offseason, the Boston Celtics are going to have to make a decision on their scrappy sixth man, Marcus Smart. Should he be a part of the team’s long-term future?
In the Boston Celtics thrilling victory over the Golden State Warriors last week, the box score shows that Marcus Smart had an objectively bad game. In 30 minutes, he finished with 1 point, shooting 0-7 from the field and 0-3 from deep. Despite a terrible offensive performance, Smart finished +15, the second best mark on the team.
This is the kind of performance that defines Marcus Smart as a player. Somehow, despite shooting 27 percent from the field (35% career) and 25.3 percent on 3’s (28.8% career), he has the second best net rating (11.1) on a 16-3 juggernaut.
This one game perfectly represents the dilemma Boston will face this offseason when they have to decide whether or not to pay Smart. Despite numbers that are underwhelming at best, Smart has been a valuable part of a Celtics team that is on the rise.
On the defensive end, Smart is simply a joy to watch. He can defend on the perimeter and he fights through screens relentlessly. He makes it incredibly difficult for opposing players to get in rhythm and initiate offense.
Smart also uses his strength and physicality to credibly defend switches. There are very few players who can take advantage of him in the post. When Smart is in with players like Jaylen Brown and Al Horford, their length and versatility can make it nearly impossible for opponents to create mismatches.
Smart is the kind of player you want on your team and hate to match up against. He constantly makes “hustle” plays and does the dirty work for the Celtics. He always seems to be diving on the floor for a loose ball or rotating over to draw a charge (5th in the NBA in charges drawn last year). These are the kinds of plays that are difficult to value but integral to team success.
The Celtics are significantly better defensively with Smart on the floor. They have a 94.5 defensive rating with him on the floor and a 99.1 rating with him off, per NBA.com. This is indicative of the impact that a player like Smart can have on a really good team. He is not a star, but his impact his real. He does so many different things well on the floor, even though they may not always get noticed.
Smart is hard to quantify as an offensive player. Abysmal 3-point shooting numbers never stop him from chucking, as he gets up over four attempts per game. Since he continues to take them, there are brief moments where he can get hot and provide a scoring spark.
More often than not, Smart is not someone you can rely on to score the ball.
Even though he does not provide consistent or efficient scoring, he can do other things for the offense. Smart gives the Celtics another solid ball-handler who can run pick-and-roll and set up teammates. He and Kyrie Irving lead the team in assists, with each averaging 5.2 per contest.
With Smart on the floor, the Celtics are at a 105.6 offensive rating. With him off, they are at 99.2, per NBA.com.
Smart is a complicated player who has pronounced weaknesses and subtle strengths. The Celtics will need to make a big decision this summer when his contract is up.
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The cap climate is starting to normalize after the spending spree of 2016 and this will certainly affect a potential offer for Smart in restricted free agency. There are very few teams with cap space next summer and, of the few teams with significant space, most are rebuilding.
Smart provides a very specific skill set that is valuable on a winning team. It is unlikely that a team would look to build around Smart on a large contract.
The question will be how much the Celtics value Smart and how much they are willing to commit to him in the future.
The Celtics have a number of young players on rookie contracts who have length and defensive versatility. They likely also have future aspirations of bringing in another star to play alongside Horford, Irving and Gordon Hayward.
Whether you are looking at the advanced numbers or just using the eye test, Marcus Smart is a winning player. He does so many little things, especially on defense, that help improve his team’s chances every night.
Smart is absolutely a player that you want on your team. It is unclear what price Boston will have to pay to keep him around, but they should do as much as they can to hold onto Smart.
If he gets a ridiculous offer in restricted free agency, they will probably have to let him walk.
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I think that something around four years, $44-50 million would be a reasonable contract for Smart. If the Celtics are forced to match anything significantly higher than that, it could get dicey. Smart does many valuable things, but his limited offensive game makes it hard to justify paying him substantially more than $10-12 million per season.
Hopefully, the Boston Celtics will be able to keep Marcus Smart around as they look to compete for championships in the coming years.