Sir Charles in Charge
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Detroit Pistons: Upend Celtics, put the East on alert

By Jonathan Macri

DETROIT, MI - NOVEMBER 10: Reggie Jackson #1 of the Detroit Pistons reacts reacts to a call late in the game next to Luke Babbitt #8 of the Atlanta Hawks at Little Caesars Arena on November 10, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 111-104. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI - NOVEMBER 10: Reggie Jackson #1 of the Detroit Pistons reacts reacts to a call late in the game next to Luke Babbitt #8 of the Atlanta Hawks at Little Caesars Arena on November 10, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 111-104. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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DETROIT, MI – NOVEMBER 10: Head coach Stan Van Gundy of the Detroit Pistons reacts on the bench while playing the Atlanta Hawks at Little Caesars Arena on November 10, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 111-104. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – NOVEMBER 10: Head coach Stan Van Gundy of the Detroit Pistons reacts on the bench while playing the Atlanta Hawks at Little Caesars Arena on November 10, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 111-104. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Fool’s Gold?

Taking a slightly wider view, there are a few serious signs of concern.

Of their five starters, only Jackson has a (barely) positive net rating. That same starting lineup – one that’s played over 250 minutes together, not an insignificant amount – has a net rating of -8.0 thanks to some atrocious defense. That would be the fourth worst in the league, ahead of only the sad sack Suns, Kings and Bulls.

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So how the hell are they winning games? The answer is simple: they’ve gotten a little lucky.

Via CleaningtheGlass.com, the Pistons have been the most fortunate team in the NBA in terms of their win expectancy based on scoring margin vs. their actual number of wins. Detroit has a +1.3 scoring margin, which is that of a barely .500 team. Yet their current win total has them on pace to be about 55-27. Something’s gotta give. Or maybe not.

Sometimes, teams can ride a wave of good fortune that can last them an entire season.

Last year the Thunder had a negative net rating and the same scoring margin the Pistons do right now. Thanks to a season’s worth of clutch heroics from their MVP, they finished with 47 wins. That’s the glass half full view.

Then there’s the broken-glass-where-you-get-stabbed-with-the-shards view, otherwise known as the 2016-17 New York Knicks. They were 16-14 heading into Christmas day but were getting outscored by 2.3 points per game and had a net rating of -3.1. From that day forward, they had the second worst record in the league.

In all likelihood the Pistons will fall somewhere in between, which sounds better than the alternative but also leaves the team in that funky no-man’s land of NBA mediocrity with no clear path to improving their roster from either the inside or the outside.

That is unless the version of Andre Drummond we’re seeing is just the tip of the iceberg instead of a momentary tic on the radar, Tobias Harris continues to shoot the lights out of the ball, Reggie Jackson stays healthy, and guys like Luke Kennard and Stanley Johnson (finally looking like an NBA player!) keep improving. That’s a lot to ask for.

We’ll all have to wait and see. In the meantime, thankfully for the NBA and the universe, we still have this guy.

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