New York Knicks: 5 questions at the season’s quarter mark
5. Is the start for real?
Via Ben Falk’s superb CleaningtheGlass.com, there’s a lot we can learn about just how sustainable the Knicks’ start actually is. At first glance, it doesn’t look good.
The primary issue is that good basketball teams tend to do certain things well in 2017, and the Knicks excel at very few of those things.
For starters, they are pretty close to the anti-Rockets in terms of shot profile. Houston has dominated the league through shooting almost exclusively from deep or at the rim. The Knicks, meanwhile, are third from the bottom in frequency of threes and rank 21st in shots taken at the rim. Unsurprisingly, they’re third overall in frequency of midrange attempts.
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That number is a bit deceiving, as they lead the league in short midrange attempts but are only 19th in their rate of long midrangers. Given the personnel, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as most of their high volume shooters – KP, Kanter, Lee, Jack, and O’Quinn – have been excellent from that general distance this season, although a drop off is always possible.
The thing the Knicks are really good at is offensive rebounding, where they rank second in the league. They also score at a very high rate when they get those putback attempts. Put it all together, and the Knicks are 9th in points per possession, which is more than good enough to float around .500.
That’s just about where the good news ends.
The Knicks are in the bottom third of the league in points achieved through transition plays, and are particularly bad at scoring off of steals. They’re also in the bottom half of the league in free throw rate. So no, easy buckets are not their thing. That’s something to keep an eye on as legs get tired the deeper we go into the season.
On defense – stop me if you’ve heard this one – the Knicks give up more threes than any other team in the league. Not only that, but teams are hitting corner threes at nearly a 46% clip, the second highest percentage allowed by any team.
On one hand, you could argue this will regress, but as @KnicksFilmSchool has broken down via video all season long, the Knicks defense is designed to funnel shots out of the paint and then hope the weak-side help recovers in time. Guess what: it hasn’t, and unless they get some new personnel, that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
So has the defense at least deterred shots at the rim, as it’s designed to do? Not really, as 16 teams allow a lower percentage of shots at the basket than they do. Put it all together, and opposing offenses take only 28% of their shots from the midrange. That means all 29 other teams do a better job at forcing opponents to take the most inefficient shots in basketball, whereas the Knicks themselves take more of these shots than almost anyone.
Oh, and the Knicks turn the ball over a ton, ranking in the bottom five in turnover rate. So in addition to giving up a ton of threes and shots at the rim, they give opponents ample opportunity to score in transition as well.
So how the hell has this team won any games?
KP’s otherworldliness over the three-week stretch from late October to early November sure helped. The Knicks as a team also defend very well when teams do get to the rim, as offenses shoot only 58% when they get there – the second best defensive number in the league.
The real reason they’ve been awesome though? Through 20 games, the New York Knicks rank as the best clutch team in the NBA. In the 7 Knick games the NBA defines as having featured a “clutch” situation, New York has a 40.8 net rating, which is roughly what the Monstars had in the first half against the Tune Squad in Space Jam.
Their efficiency is no doubt helped by the fact that they’ve played 13 of their 20 games at home, which is one rate that we know will come down.
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One last thing: despite their clutch performance, the Knicks are only 4-3 in those 7 games. There’s two ways to look at this. On one hand, it’s not like the clutch numbers have unduly beefed up their win total. On the other, if they’ve performed this well in close games so far and are only 10-10, what happens when their clutch play tails off (as it almost certainly will)?
We’ll all find out soon enough. For now though, let’s sit back and enjoy the fact that for once, the Knicks are not the laughing stock of the NBA, and while things are far from perfect, if you squint hard enough, it look like they’re headed in the right direction.