2018 NBA Draft Big Board 6.0: Explaining the top 30

By Connor Harr | Feb 23, 2018

LAWRENCE, KS - FEBRUARY 19: Trae Young #11 of the Oklahoma Sooners in action against the Kansas Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse on February 19, 2018 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /

2 of 6

Prospect odds

I read a really interesting piece on The Stepien which is a great draft website written by JZ Mazlish. In this piece, Mazlish talks about the talent curve and really how hard it is to end up with a rotation player in the NBA Draft.

You can (and should) read the article, here.

There’s a chart in there that shows the odds of actually getting a rotation player in the Draft from 1990 to 2010. Basically, what the chart shows is on average over those years each draft ends up with about 19 players that range from becoming a star to a rotation player.

So, realistically less than one third of the players taken in every draft don’t end up becoming rotation NBA players.